China garment support market

Now we know why S-shares were so hot over last 2 weeks. China side has reduced trading fees. This is one of my favourite tagline at seminar, price moves ahead of news. I still remember there was a time when i was speaking at NUS, one student ask me, how come the price moves up before the news is known? I can only smile and wink at them.... yes insider trading is illegal... but does it happen in the market? Up to your imagination i told them. *I had to be politically right* keke However for the rest of us, i'm sure we know this is why Technical Analysis works. When the buying starts, it leaves trail.

No wonder every night when i screen one of my MUST screen rules using XPertTrader, big volume, plenty of china stocks keep coming up. All the 4r1g signals work.

Today's closing was not bullish. We saw alot of stocks closing off the high. This is where we should start looking at heavy dumping at this level. When i screened for big volume, this time round i have 54 stocks appearing in my list!!! Usual will see twenties. What's more, most of them are China stocks. This is like a warning sign flashing in front of me.

As for Dow, if we see 12,650 trades, there could be immediate weakness to be wary of.

So any chance to load up shares? I think we need to observe how the market trades tomorrow. It is normal for market to retrace after strong gains. However, i noted that STI is unable to break above 3186 this week. Furthermore, today it closed a shooting star... ugly!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

T.A should be easy and fun!

Sorry guys, i was too busy with my personal matters as well as work. My grandma was hospitalised and I had to visit her in the evening, leaving little time to blog. Ever since i started trading, the most obvious change in my life is the sacrificing of time with my family. Ironic... when she is at home, i no time to visit her.... when she is hospitalised, i make it an effort to visit her as often as i can. What is this nonsense???

Work wise, exciting stuffs coming up. Everyone should know we have a training team now. While i seek to increase the team, i myself will have an opportunity to step back and take care of the after course support! Yes, we have more than 1000 graduates and it will be a good number to work with. Also i have stepped up sending T.A case study to all ChartNexus users, i want to promote the use of T.A in the investment community. This is really something that inspire me. Why? Because i was just a usual computer engineer in a MNC company just 1 year ago. Now i have the chance and opportunity to persue my personal interest as a career. Just like Beckham able to play foot ball to make a living. Not only that, now i have the chance to change the life of others in a small way. By promoting the use of T.A in the investment community! : )

Also, i have been supporting the graduates only forum actively. I must start to instil confidence in them in this volatile market. I can share the T.A, but trading experience is something not able to cover 100% in the course. That's why my trainers and I will share what to do in daily post.

Lastly, my own trading. Since last week, the market rebounded nicely at support levels. This is very key to where the market is heading. As i mentioned in the last post, i was biased to the upside. But amidst all the bad news, it's not easy to go long. Hence, i built a portfolio with 1 short and 2 long positions. My rationale being, if i am wrong, i will cut the 2 long positions and my short position will make me money to cover the loss and more! Why more? Because when the market goes down, it is always faster than coming up! That's why, when the market heads up, my short position go against me slower and that my 2 longs make back the loss and gained more as the market climbed higher. During intra week weakness i collect 2 more long positions and sold those near resistance to avoid risk. Yes, during volatile times, i do not take too many positions otherwise will be badly expose to downside risk.

Last Friday i was sharing T.A at this Professional Engineers Associations. I made T.A look so simple and fun to apply. How? Cosco Corp, all i did was show them just how MFI say rebound coming... and look at where Cosco is now? I do not like to over analyse. According to my experience, the highest probability way to use T.A is when we only take the most obvious signals. This is something i learnt during my early years where i paid for not through courses but through tuition fees in the stock market.. keke

As for my take on the market, i am looking at any bearish continuos patterns forming. I am not blind to the bad news in the market, i still feel one day market will react to the bad news. And the possible date maybe 27th Apr thereabouts... i am looking out for signs of weakness. Will inform via this blog when i see the signs.

Flavour at the moment, properties and S-shares.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Market selling subdued

After Monday's plunge, I notice the volume wasn't at the high side. Dow's mixed closing suggested that the bears are taking a breather. Will it continue tonight, no one will know for sure. I have seen one day plunge, next day doji and then gap down again. But the market actions after the plunge was different from what i remembered. Hence there is a chance market will react differently. Another observation is how many of the stocks refuse to break last week's low. The logic is simple, if it is really bearish, we would have gone down swiftly. Hence, i found the actions biased to the upside. However, we must be wary of a bear flag in the making. I cannot ignore the fact that bad news have been absorbed very well by the market. It doesn't seem to make sense that the market can moves up with bad news all around. What i can make out of this is, let us profit from this rebound and then turn short accordingly when market decides to digest the bad news. I waited for 2 weeks before pulling the trigger to short last week. Patience will be rewarded. Like what Raymond said, "Our goal is not to trade often, but to trade profitably". I have strong reasons to believe, the worst is yet to come. This pretendance by the market will one day shows the true colors.

My team and I will be at SGX Auditorium sharing trading strategies with like-minded investors this coming Thursday. If market continues to edge higher cautiously from today, i'm sure the "live" sharing will be very beneficial and meaningful.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Market left confused

My convictions paid off as my market opinon was acted out by the market. Following my plan, i initiated more short positions and was looking forward for STI to crash below 3k. Alas, Friday's surprising strong performance forced me to cover back my shorts intra-day. I remembered reading this phrase from Livermore's book, "If you see a train coming at you at 80km/hr, you are plain stupid to still stand in it's way. We can always jump off first, wait for it to past and then jump back onto the track." Similarly, i was feeling the same as i saw the buying strength and i especially do not like the way the selling was absorbed. Without saying, Nikkei and HSI big rally give the bulls a boost. Boy a i glad i covered early and not leave it to 5pm as the late buying really squeezed lots of shorts out there. All these before Dow opened for trading few hours later... now i wish i haven't sold.... hahaha

Overnight, Dow crashed at long last! It was the reason why i was so cautious about turning long in local market as i expected a big drop to happen... but it just wouldn't. Guess what? the day i took my profits off my short positions, it crashed 259 points. How frustrating! Think i have to go waterloo street temple to get some flowers home to bath in...

Despite having decent profits from last week's operations, i wasn't happy. How to be happy when the market is swinging up and down with such volatility. I don't like it when i can't ride on trend for the easy money. Ok since i have sold, i think i can officially declare the counter which i have profited from the upside despite the market swings left and right. ISDN. Check out it's chart. Simply amazing. I didn't want to post online for fear of inducing you to buy and this is unethical since i am vested. Now that i have sold, no qualms about sharing. I sold the day i add one more short position in the market. This is part of my money mgmt. I wasn't comfortable with too many positions so i had to reduce.

I am still umm ga wan... tomorrow if it breaks last week low, i may initiate new shorts. However i am cautious, because no doubt, things are not looking pretty for Dow, the strong buying on Friday in Asia is something i should take note of.

STI forms a hanging man on the weekly chart... i will be looking out for signs of black candle confirmation.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Psychology in trading

If anything, last 2 weeks of the market is a mean test to my psychology in trading. With prices soaring, i am vested light in stocks. Every passing day tested my patience. Every intra-day weakness was magified as "the moment" through my bearish glasses. Alas, who am i to dictate where the market should go. If I am late in the party, I shall wait. But little did i expect this wait to last 2 weeks. Truth be told, at times i am really tempted to initiate long position.

I stood by my analysis and convictions where experience reminded me to hold my horses. Those painful and demoralising losses of the past lingers in my mind as i try to initiate any long positions. I asked myself, if i buy here, where is my stop loss, peering through the charts, the stop-loss would be quite a distance from where the closing price is. With 2 weeks of rally, pull back is imiment. It certainly does not make sense to initiate a long position at this stage. Coupled with Astrology analysis where bradley turn date is tonight and indices trading at resistance, what odds do i have? How about quickies? Yes i imagined if i have bought during intraday weakness, i would have pocketed profits here and there. But in Hokkien, there is a saying, "Eat pig, pay dog". It means to say, for all the small profits here and there, soon, this suckers rally will suck me in an even more risky position and that single loss will wipe out all the small profits. Yes, been there done that. Big money is made from trading along with the trend! I already have a set of methods known as technical analysis. If I do not follow my methods, i will lose the consistency that I have and will be trading at random.

Earnings season is coming up at US side, with the buy up leading to this week, "factored in" could be the fashion in analysis if the market comes down. Of course if the results is bad, it will confirm a slowdown many had feared. Fed minutes will be ready for the market to digest tomorrow and also the crude inventories. All the market need is an excuse to come off, one of them may be it.

China shares has performed remarkably well. Last week i seen many stocks trading near their resistance and today, most of them broke through. This is indeed strength which i cannot deny. I recall just months ago during the last reporting, many of these china companies report lower earnings. There is little incentive for them to be up at this stage. If a rally is not backed by fundamental reasons, surely it cannot last? Synear? I remembered the dumplings turned sour due to margin squeezed... why on earth the sudden interest in the stock? 2004, the year i blindly followed the herd and got into the red army frenzy. Those rally looked so real back then and i was so blind to the resistance that the selling off really caught everyone flat footed.

We still have 4 trading days to go. Let's see Mr Market's trump card.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Hesitation near resistance

Dow Jones: 3 small bodied candles signify hesitation of the bulls. DJ resistance stands at 12,760 thereabouts for now. If it pulls back, i will be watching for a test on the 20SMA. MFI also trades at resistance. Once again, despite a bad non-farm pay roll data, DJ refuse to head lower. Normally this would mean the market may not head lower in the near term. But i'm giving more significance to the resistance levels thinking there is no incentive for the market to head higher. Also there is a bradley turn date on the 7th Apr.


STI: There's a gap to be filled for STI. Currently it has traded above the resistance level. The last few candles could be a bull trap if market falls back into the range-trade. MFI shows a similar level when the index traded at this level.

As indices are trading near resistance, I want to short at the next turn down. 2 things can happen. If i am right, the market may retest the lower range and my shorts make me money. If I am wrong, the stop loss is near and I cut my losses short and wait to long. The study of the retracement is very important as well because, there is a difference between a normal retracement and jumping off the cliff kind of actions.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Dow surges ahead

I was caught by surprise when Dow finishes up so strongly. Never estimate the power of "intervention". With the latest Paulson move, market cheered even a small bounce in ISM. Yeah, maybe afterall the recession is just a scare. The writedown of UBS was largely ignored "tabi" for the intraday sell down yesterday afternoon. Yes! I went to short YZJ. To my dismay, in less than 1 hour i have to eat the humble pie and cut loss. But luckily I cut, otherwise today my face sure go red!

Now that the 3000 resistance is convincingly broken and that too of the 3100. It's time market takes a breather. It is this breather where I will be watching for how well the selling is absorbed. As for last week til today, the selling in intra-day was often absorbed and market pushed higher. What about the fund dressing?? Aren't they going to undress? I shall not let this handicap my analysis, it is better for me to be objective.

Last week i screened and saw many stocks trading at resistance. If it is bearish, the stocks would have went down from there. By breaking through, the underlying market tone could have changed. In terms of market psychology, i'm pretty sure many of the retailers are not heavily vested in this run-up and this cautiousness may augers well for further upside as money can still flow into the stock market.

When bad news is ignored, looks like market don't wanna go down. Let us look at the next market moving news or data. I be still looking to short, my eye is on how Dow takes the resistance 12,700. Right now on the 30mins chart, i can see bearish divergence liao!

Banks are super today with powerful gap up. Now it has a big gap to fill... the coming down may be very painful. Properties are also strong as i can see many stocks appearing in my screening. China shares closed weaker after HSI pulls off a late stunt. I am still interested in the short side for now and will wait for my signals to appear.

Do allow me to complain abit about life, really want to write it out to vent frustrations...... Time... it seems like my new life doesn't leave me with enough time. Today is a rare day where i can blog and do homework at 8pm! Just like the good old days. Otherwise, homework is done late at night and after the analysis i am too exhausted to post anything. I don't like this at all because i know this blog is widely followed and I feel unhappy to not able to share the know-how to beginners who would like to learn trading. I for one really believes that trading is a life skill and it is the only insurance against retrenchment and to this day i never forget that it is this fear that has driven me to take this path. Although it's been 4 months and i'm still trying to strike a balance between business, family and trading.... i'm sure one day everything will fall in place... I don't remember giving up trading when i was a loser and it's the same perseverance that saw me through. looooon ah!!

By the way, whoever wants to go Bedok camp for RT, we can all go together liao coz' i sprained my knee during shuttle run and couldn't run the 2.4km and the dateline is next week. This time confirm tio RT.... haha Not bad la, i see people do RT, majam relac one corner... we all can discuss stocks ma! hahaha

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Funds undressing?

Last week's strong rally caught everyone by surprise. Like everyone else, i hunt around for answer and this is one i like best. Funds dressing up for the quater. This sounds an alarm bell inside my head, because if they dress up, they will have to undress. I will be looking to trade from the short side unless we break 3k convincingly.

At the CTA graduates gathering last Friday, we saw how STI along with many shares are trading near resistance and hence we should avoid buying and look to short. Today's STI closing comes with a sell signal. Let's see if tonight US finish near 12k. I have a list of at least 8 stocks on my deathlist. For XPertTrader subscribers, the rule to screen will be M.A as support or resistance & 4g1r.


Screening with XPertTrader:

Milk turned sour? I like the M.A as resistance, but the volume... haiz... if only high high big big volume plus candlestick reversal pattern will be nice :D


From a potential double bottom, this has now turn bearish and looks pretty much like a D-tri.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Bears Gored by the Bulls!

This picture was taken during my honeymoon in Berns.... never had the chance to post it up .... finally today's actions justify this post! hahaha


The day began with a bang. This is expected because DJ had a strong finishing last week. I was looking for a whitecandle finishing in the local bourse but we have none. The confirming candle was in DJ's chart. As the day worn on, it is not difficult to detect the persistent buying strength. Alas, we closed strongly! Notably the banks! What gains! Honestly, i am very tempted to initiate a short position. But i knew this is not the way to trade a market. The market moves in a non-random way and i already have a set of tools to decipher it. Hence I should be patience and wait for the signal to short instead of trading because I "feel" or i "think". Now this is certainly suicidal and we shall call this trading by emotions.

As most of you already knew, I was contributing technical analysis article to SmartInvestor magazine in 2007. From April'08 onwards, I will not do that anymore. Instead, i will be contributing market outlook to the magazine! :D It's kinda challenging because i have to study the market inside out inorder to get the charts to start talking to me. But nevertheless, it's a challenge i enjoy! Ta bi, i don't like the way i have to write in cambridge style english... it's tough. Blogging is so much easier! haha can use singlish, use hokkien. wahahaha I remember when i started in 2006, due to my bad english, i often joked at the seminars, " i don't care if my english is bad, so long you can understand what i am saying!" :D

By the way, in 2007, ChartNexus flagship course was only available in Singapore. Now, we are in 3 countries! Just like phua chu kang, Best in Singapore and some say KL and Jakarta! wahahaha I can't change the way people use computers because Steve Job already done it. I can't change the way people use internet because Google is already leading. What i aspire to do will be to influence and change the way people trade. By influencing, we will be looking to build an academy focussing on technical analysis. By changing, we will be looking to improve chartnexus platform to simplicity yet powerful. huat arh!



The money flow index already showing a positive divergence and with Jan's low nearby, I reckon the probability of a rebound is high this time. If anything, this is where bottom fishing make sense. To the trained investor, this is how we look for rebound to long. For the untrained investor, so long the price is lower than the day before, it is cheap and can buy and most of the time it will get lower. This is why i say there are techniques to decipher the market and trade accordingly. The best part? It is not difficult to learn! But you must have preserverance and lots of practice! Join us at SGX auditorium to learn more about technical analysis for only $20!



Ferrochina was picked up by my XPertTrader screening. There is bullish divergence in the indicators and a potential double bottom is in the making. There are rules to determine when is a bottom formed, hence i will not jump the gun. Livermore once said this, "The price i pay doesn't matter, it must go up after i buy."

At the next ChartNexus Stock Selection seminar, Hendrick will be showing the different ways how we can screen the stock market for the 3 directions namely, uptrend, downtrend and sideways. Inaddition, we will also be looking forward to learning how to trade Wilmar going forward. This is the link to register for your FREE seat. http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1388

Alright, that's all for tonight. Going forward, i will be looking out for heavy dumping near resistance. Once i see this, i will initiate short position.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Wishing for a candlestick reversal pattern

Tomorrow is the last chance to take up position! My eyes will be the closing candle on STI's weekly chart. Remember on Sunday night i posted, this week's closing is more important than the intra-week swing? Well indeed the market looks supported. Most of the stocks look damn oversold and we should head higher. But it also doesn't stop the market from falling further before the rebound takes place. Given that today we were not able to close higher than opening means that the market are fearful of last week's repeat where market tanked after the big rally. This is actually good because it means there is little confidence left. Market will not anyhow rally like a mad bull. We all should know by now, a mad rally doesn't last. Rather, we might have very good and defined technical levels to trade.

Let us see if the inverted hammer on index charts will come with candlestick confirmation.

Results from tonight's XPertTrader Screening:


Asia Env: Surprisingly strong in a weak market


Range Trade for Comfort?


Palm oil related stocks staged a comeback late in the day. Was it shortists covering? Anyway, bullish harami formed.


Tempted to short this fella. Based on M.A, today's closing is bearish. Support should be Mar's Low.




DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Singtel in a trading range

Singtel in a ding dong ding dong ding dong...

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Cosco T-rebound on the cards?

2 more trading days to close the weekly candle and i will be looking at possible Candlestick reversal pattern to give us the rebound that the market sorely missed!

Lehman and goldman restore confidence in the financial sector after the bear scare. With Ben looks set to cut the interest rate, short-term rebound may be on the cards.


Screened with XPertTrader, Cosco Corp has a chance to rebound after touching pessimism levels.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

A peek into the weekly charts

Bear Stearns gave market a poisonous shot. This investment firm was the first to admit the subprime issues they were facing and last week, they scored another first....They seek rescue plan. My food nearly spilled out from my mouth when Dow dropped over 300 points from up 50.(I was watching US market live that night). Monday's opening is expected to be weak. However it is how the week finish that will be interesting as I see Dow and STI at critical support. I'm sure i am not the only one who is watching this level. Hence it makes it very interesting going forward. If we break this level, you can be sure of the selling strength! Obviously if this level is protected by "invisible hands", it may be a good time to load up to play the rebound? I still favours rectangle trading as described last week.



STI: Index closed slightly below the long term uptrend line. This is the lower end of the range, and with Friday's closing, we had a homing pigeon pattern. This is a bullish reversal pattern and support will be taken at the lowest of the pattern for now. Given the weak closing of Dow on Friday, this pattern looks set to fail. But as mentioned above, STI's weekly chart finished last week with an inverted hammer. Anticipation will be for the week to close higher than previous week. With Ben speaking on 18th, we do have a chance.



Dow: Trading near the trendline support and the weekly chart closed with an inverted hammer as well. Major support may be at 11,300, which means to say, there is more room to fall for Dow. Money Flow index looks to be oversold, this index is particularly sensitive to the extreme in the range. It will be useful to follow the flow of money!



For those of us who are interested to pick up technical analysis and use it as a weapon in the stock market, do join us at our courses. We are one of the most affordable around and have often been invited to speak at our partners' events. At ChartNexus, we do not make empty promise of quick money, indeed, money won't fall from the sky so easily. Otherwise everyone don't have to work anymore. Rather, we equip you with the tool and the knowledge for you to avoid risk and seize the opportunities. For more information, please visit http://www.chartnexus.com/

Remember, money can be made from the financial market and you only need the know how!

Stock Screening from XPertTrader:
Stocks with high volume.

No. Stock Name Triggerred Date Triggerred Rules
1 CDL HTrust 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
2 Cosco Corp 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
3 CSE Global 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
4 FIRST RESOURCES LIMITED 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
5 KS Energy 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
6 M1 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
7 MACARTHURCOOK INDUSTRIAL REIT 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
8 ManOri US$ 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
9 MMP Reit 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
10 Olam 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
11 PFood 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
12 SPH 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
13 ST Engg 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
14 TAC 200US$ 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
15 Unisteel 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))


Sell Signal Triggered for Parkway

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Technical Rebound or Reversal?

Overnight closing of Dow in negative once again dragged down the morning session. But cool enough, market rallied in the afternoon session and close amazingly in the green suggesting something could be cooking in Dow tonight. True enough, Dow is now up 200 points plus. Honestly speaking, i too was tempted to long some stocks as i could see many candlestick reversal patterns around. Notably in some of the China shares i'm tracking. However i held back. I prefered not to guess a reversal or bottom and just let the price tells me where is it heading. A break above 20 day moving average will be a good sign. Infact there are still a couple of stocks trading above 20dma and some are even on an uptrend. I secretly load up on one last week and despite the plunge, it was unscathed! keke, if all goes well, i will share this stock at my upcoming CTA Graduates Gathering .

It's been more than 1 year since I became the chief trainer and to date, over 1000 graduated from my course. The gathering will serve as a refresher to the techniques taught in the course. It's about time this is done so that they don't lose the momentum and faith. For graduates, a private email will be sent. Look out for it. : )

STI Jan's low held like a rock. Market knew that is the level many are eyeing as crucial. If we breaks that, get ready for another round of hardcore selling. Meanwhile on the weekly chart, we may see a bullish piercing pattern in the making by Friday.

Let me update the HSI chart tomorrow. Currently Dow looks very stable and resilient. However, i do not like the way it's stuck at this level and not making any progress. After sometime, the bulls will get tired and the you-know-who may attack the market again.

Interesting stocks that I'm watching:
CAO, Noble

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Formation failures

The warnings are written all over the walls. When i was flipping through charts, plenty of weak charts are warning us to stay clear. Last week, my eyes were on the development of the chart formations on the index charts. The result? Bullish formations failed and the one bearish on KLCI and Nikkei broke down successfully. This coincide with the shocking election results over the weekend. Smart money run away ahead? It's easy to say let us short the market. The timing of positioning our shorts is also important since the CFD facility doesn't offer rollover and we only have 30 days to be right abt our shorts to maximise the gains. A trader is like a boxer. We must fight with both hands. If you do not learn the art of shorting, you are like a boxer who fights with only one hand. Shorting isn't really that difficult. If you are interested, do join one of the ChartNexus seminar and ask question. At our seminars, they are not previews. Our trainers share their experience and offer advices on the current market and how they will trade it.

As for Singapore, Mas Salamat "bourne identity" act was really a classic. Escape when going to the loo, how many times have we watched this in the movies. So far no impact on the stock market. We were under continuos pressure and influence from US. While market ignored all the bad news last month, it surely didn't take too lightly of the slowing economy concerns last week. Earning season just concluded and we saw how the market took it. Also there was a bradley turn date on 8th March. True enough the market reacted!!! Is this self fulfilled prophecy or really this law of the universe ought to be studied in more details?

For the coming week, it's too late to short sell for me as we are already in the extended downward movement. The best opportunity to short is when we are near resistance. The chance was already missed like i said in last week's post. Inorder to enjoy highest probability, i will wait for the rebound rally and re-position to short. Meanwhile i will post any charts that look interesting. This will be good for learning. I will try my best to share my knowledge for those keen to learn.



Formation failure bodes ill fate for the index. For best case scenario, we can look at a rectangle trading range should the low of Jan holds. After which we can do projection using the height of this rectangle.


Nikkei broke out of the rising wedge successfully. This is a continuation pattern for the downtrend.



Dow has the same formation failure like STI. Rectangle trade? I say we watch out for divergence in the indicators.



Reversal pattern broke out strongly.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Bad news ignored

The market has been ignoring all the bad news and absorbing them very well with the index keep heading higher. It baffled me and i was so tempted to turn long because as a rule of thumb, if the market doesn't go down with bad news, it means it will turn up. But looking at the market, i notice many rallies had no decent follow through and hence held back. I told myself, if market really is turning up, the next sell-off will be well absorbed and we move higher. The price actions thus far has not been that of a typical bull market. The profits from Chartered becomes very precious because i had to cut loss on Allgreen when it threatens to break 1.30... so it became eat pig pay dog. The most boring part is.... there was a sell signal on 20th Feb in the market (4g1r on STI) and according to the system, 21st Feb i should look to short sell. But due to my busy work schedule i had to give it a miss. Nevermind though... market is always there!
By the way, my method is FREELY available. However for best result, it is best that you combine with other analysis like classical analysis, indicators...etc... my method can be found at
http://www.chartnexus.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=425


DJ: although a brutal sell off happened on Friday due to AIG and UBS more than expected loss. Is this a surprise to the market? I do not think so. All along, it is plain obvious this is the sector to short and anything out from them is expected to be bad. So why the sell-off? I think it is just an excuse to take profit. Either this, or the last rally was actually a chance for smartmoney to get the hell out! But since it closed just nice at the triangle support. I shall observe the rebound. Either we have a Triangle pattern failure or we have a upwards breakout of the A-triangle.




Monday at open, i shall observe the selling... because to me, if market dips below 3000 and able to bounce back, it would have been supported at the triangle trend support.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Chart pattern coming up!

Based on the STI chart, i observed a symmetrical triangle in the making. Now we are pending the breakout either to the upside or downside. 20 MA is supporting the price currently and has just turned. This is classic T.A versus indicator. keke A favourite question asked in my T.A course. Allow me to explain how do we make use of the above information to trade.

Step 1: We form an opinion base on the Triangle first. Where is the target price. Since it's a symmetrical triangle, is there something going on that the market is waiting. Here i conclude that earning season is underway and after the reporting season, price will break the triangle

Step 2: Base on the 20 DMA, since it just turned, probably i will wait for another retest at higher level before i even wants to use it as a support to track the price.

Step 3: Decision, i will hang on to my Allgreen short position until we breakout to the upside decisively.

I apologise for the lack of sharing in recent weeks as work is really full to the brim. Over the weekend, ChartNexus made another first, our CTA course reach the shore of Jakarta! At the same time, the same CTA course was being held in Singapore. A milestone reached! Going forward, it will be fun if we can link up the Singapore, Malaysia & Indonesia one day! :D

To buy or to short? To long, i will prefer to wait for further evidence of bull. To short, i will be looking at the break of the triangle to add my short positions.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

STI update

STI: After the strong surge, market took a one day break. Last night was a holiday in US, hence today's trading will be lead by Nikkei & HSI. There will be consumer index and housing data from US this week and this can move the market. Given that we have already moved higher, we must watchout for any potential sell-off. Any pull back is best not to break the higher low order.




Tat Hong: The big sell-off after various downgrades. I could have max my profit at 3.14 high but nope! keke The stupid first day sell off meant i can only take my profit at 2.86 which i decided after it refuse to close higher at closing time. The sell off took me by surprise because i had intended to avg up Tat Hong on normal retracement. Now i can look elsewhere. haha






DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Happy Valentines Day!

First of all, Happy New Year! We tanked before and after CNY. I unfortunately cut my LianBeng to have a peaceful dinner and look at where is Lian Beng now? haha Well i'm used to it! Losses are part of the game and it is also a strategic decision. I purposely sold so that the brokerage firm owe me money over the CNY which Chinese believed once you owe somebody money over the new year, you will owe him lots for the rest of the year. keke

At this stage of the market, i am still looking around for solid buys and which sector to look at. Agriculture seems to be getting volatile and we are seeing broadbased buying. I especially like the intra-day selling that was absorbed well yesterday. Buffet and the retail sales figure was what the market needed and we are now looking at potential "W" patterns all over the place. I will be keeping a lookout for those stocks that breakout successfully from this pattern.


STI update: Currently we are trading at the resistance gap and it was closed moments ago. All the gaps in STI meant crowd behaviour and emotions at their extreme and price is not moving uniformly and this is not a good bull market looks like. The level to watch should be 22SMA, it could be a good level to short if market fails there. Even on the STI, we can see "W" pattern. I will exercise patience and not risk my money in the current overly sensitive market. Volatile market is not a characteristic of a market bottom.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Chinese New Year Rally!

What timing! The rally was inline with the upcoming Chinese New Year! :D Now that we have 1.5 days before we close for CNY holidays, i am considering a hedge for my longs.

I shorted Chartered last Friday right before closing. It was a powerful rally in late afternoon and we close the week stronger. It has always been my plan to hold longs and go short one at least 1 downtrending stock. This is because I am still not sure we are out of the woods. I expect another test to the downside after the holidays hence as soon as I see weakness in my long positions, i will take my profit and add to my short positions. The rationale being, if market is to go down from here, there are 2 possibilities.

A) We achieve a higher low and selling will be well absorbed and I can square off my shorts and turn long the market.

B) We go down to at least test the low at 2745 level. If market was to head that way, i forsee it to happen in less than 5 trading sessions. Any hesistation is a sign of bulls.

2 levels we can look at from STI point of view is 3171 & 2964.

As for DJ, it is trading at the resistance level 12,800s. It is normal for a pull back as we have been going up for quite some time since the rate cut. It was a relief to see market reacts positively to the rate cut. Otherwise i would have taken a more aggressive stance in shorting.
I see DJ's support at 12,600 thereabts. But worse case scenario shouldn't take out 12340s which is a short-term fibonacci 38.2% support.

I am still not agressive in turning long on stocks. The next higher low will be excellent for me to initiate another long position. Until then, i feel it doesn't make sense to take up long positions when indexes are trading at resistance levels.

For new readers who are new to my blog and found the articles inspiring, i only have this to say, if i can do it, so can you! Trading is never a complicated affair and it is certainly not difficult unless you are trying to find a sure-win system which any experienced market participant will attest to this - it is non-existant! I too started out on the wrong foot and accumulated anything but wealth. Slowly but surely, I was able to turn profitable by managing my psychology and money management well. Of course I acquired trading methodologies known as technical analysis to aid in my comeback.

Trading should never be regarded as a form of gambling. This should be a highly regarded business where one will go through plenty of heartache, mood swing and still have the heart to continue. It is a business where failures are expected and accepted. It must be an enjoyable process otherwise those market swing days will kill the passion and joy to a certain extent, affect the personal life. One has to be emotionless in trading and this has somehow filtered into the personality. I for one has changed alot in which I would avoid senseless confrontations with fellow peers. I mean, what is there to win or lose about in an argument? Pride? Market has taught me a lesson about pride and ego long time ago. Who cares about personal opinons? In trading, we back our opinion through our positions. When we are right, we will be rewarded handsomely. If we are wrong, we accept the wrong opinion and be flexible enough to opinionate in the right direction. Pride has no place in trading. Hence, if you are new to trading, decide early if you are serious about it as a business or gambling. Otherwise don't bother, as you may end up losing in the thousands before you realise.

A simple test, from the price movement of capitaland, can you tell if it is going up or down? What are the price levels to watch out for? This is the kind of information you need to conjure opinions from.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.