A peek into the weekly charts

Bear Stearns gave market a poisonous shot. This investment firm was the first to admit the subprime issues they were facing and last week, they scored another first....They seek rescue plan. My food nearly spilled out from my mouth when Dow dropped over 300 points from up 50.(I was watching US market live that night). Monday's opening is expected to be weak. However it is how the week finish that will be interesting as I see Dow and STI at critical support. I'm sure i am not the only one who is watching this level. Hence it makes it very interesting going forward. If we break this level, you can be sure of the selling strength! Obviously if this level is protected by "invisible hands", it may be a good time to load up to play the rebound? I still favours rectangle trading as described last week.



STI: Index closed slightly below the long term uptrend line. This is the lower end of the range, and with Friday's closing, we had a homing pigeon pattern. This is a bullish reversal pattern and support will be taken at the lowest of the pattern for now. Given the weak closing of Dow on Friday, this pattern looks set to fail. But as mentioned above, STI's weekly chart finished last week with an inverted hammer. Anticipation will be for the week to close higher than previous week. With Ben speaking on 18th, we do have a chance.



Dow: Trading near the trendline support and the weekly chart closed with an inverted hammer as well. Major support may be at 11,300, which means to say, there is more room to fall for Dow. Money Flow index looks to be oversold, this index is particularly sensitive to the extreme in the range. It will be useful to follow the flow of money!



For those of us who are interested to pick up technical analysis and use it as a weapon in the stock market, do join us at our courses. We are one of the most affordable around and have often been invited to speak at our partners' events. At ChartNexus, we do not make empty promise of quick money, indeed, money won't fall from the sky so easily. Otherwise everyone don't have to work anymore. Rather, we equip you with the tool and the knowledge for you to avoid risk and seize the opportunities. For more information, please visit http://www.chartnexus.com/

Remember, money can be made from the financial market and you only need the know how!

Stock Screening from XPertTrader:
Stocks with high volume.

No. Stock Name Triggerred Date Triggerred Rules
1 CDL HTrust 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
2 Cosco Corp 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
3 CSE Global 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
4 FIRST RESOURCES LIMITED 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
5 KS Energy 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
6 M1 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
7 MACARTHURCOOK INDUSTRIAL REIT 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
8 ManOri US$ 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
9 MMP Reit 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
10 Olam 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
11 PFood 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
12 SPH 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
13 ST Engg 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
14 TAC 200US$ 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))
15 Unisteel 14 Mar 2008 ((Average volume has jumped by at least 30.0%))


Sell Signal Triggered for Parkway

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Technical Rebound or Reversal?

Overnight closing of Dow in negative once again dragged down the morning session. But cool enough, market rallied in the afternoon session and close amazingly in the green suggesting something could be cooking in Dow tonight. True enough, Dow is now up 200 points plus. Honestly speaking, i too was tempted to long some stocks as i could see many candlestick reversal patterns around. Notably in some of the China shares i'm tracking. However i held back. I prefered not to guess a reversal or bottom and just let the price tells me where is it heading. A break above 20 day moving average will be a good sign. Infact there are still a couple of stocks trading above 20dma and some are even on an uptrend. I secretly load up on one last week and despite the plunge, it was unscathed! keke, if all goes well, i will share this stock at my upcoming CTA Graduates Gathering .

It's been more than 1 year since I became the chief trainer and to date, over 1000 graduated from my course. The gathering will serve as a refresher to the techniques taught in the course. It's about time this is done so that they don't lose the momentum and faith. For graduates, a private email will be sent. Look out for it. : )

STI Jan's low held like a rock. Market knew that is the level many are eyeing as crucial. If we breaks that, get ready for another round of hardcore selling. Meanwhile on the weekly chart, we may see a bullish piercing pattern in the making by Friday.

Let me update the HSI chart tomorrow. Currently Dow looks very stable and resilient. However, i do not like the way it's stuck at this level and not making any progress. After sometime, the bulls will get tired and the you-know-who may attack the market again.

Interesting stocks that I'm watching:
CAO, Noble

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Formation failures

The warnings are written all over the walls. When i was flipping through charts, plenty of weak charts are warning us to stay clear. Last week, my eyes were on the development of the chart formations on the index charts. The result? Bullish formations failed and the one bearish on KLCI and Nikkei broke down successfully. This coincide with the shocking election results over the weekend. Smart money run away ahead? It's easy to say let us short the market. The timing of positioning our shorts is also important since the CFD facility doesn't offer rollover and we only have 30 days to be right abt our shorts to maximise the gains. A trader is like a boxer. We must fight with both hands. If you do not learn the art of shorting, you are like a boxer who fights with only one hand. Shorting isn't really that difficult. If you are interested, do join one of the ChartNexus seminar and ask question. At our seminars, they are not previews. Our trainers share their experience and offer advices on the current market and how they will trade it.

As for Singapore, Mas Salamat "bourne identity" act was really a classic. Escape when going to the loo, how many times have we watched this in the movies. So far no impact on the stock market. We were under continuos pressure and influence from US. While market ignored all the bad news last month, it surely didn't take too lightly of the slowing economy concerns last week. Earning season just concluded and we saw how the market took it. Also there was a bradley turn date on 8th March. True enough the market reacted!!! Is this self fulfilled prophecy or really this law of the universe ought to be studied in more details?

For the coming week, it's too late to short sell for me as we are already in the extended downward movement. The best opportunity to short is when we are near resistance. The chance was already missed like i said in last week's post. Inorder to enjoy highest probability, i will wait for the rebound rally and re-position to short. Meanwhile i will post any charts that look interesting. This will be good for learning. I will try my best to share my knowledge for those keen to learn.



Formation failure bodes ill fate for the index. For best case scenario, we can look at a rectangle trading range should the low of Jan holds. After which we can do projection using the height of this rectangle.


Nikkei broke out of the rising wedge successfully. This is a continuation pattern for the downtrend.



Dow has the same formation failure like STI. Rectangle trade? I say we watch out for divergence in the indicators.



Reversal pattern broke out strongly.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Bad news ignored

The market has been ignoring all the bad news and absorbing them very well with the index keep heading higher. It baffled me and i was so tempted to turn long because as a rule of thumb, if the market doesn't go down with bad news, it means it will turn up. But looking at the market, i notice many rallies had no decent follow through and hence held back. I told myself, if market really is turning up, the next sell-off will be well absorbed and we move higher. The price actions thus far has not been that of a typical bull market. The profits from Chartered becomes very precious because i had to cut loss on Allgreen when it threatens to break 1.30... so it became eat pig pay dog. The most boring part is.... there was a sell signal on 20th Feb in the market (4g1r on STI) and according to the system, 21st Feb i should look to short sell. But due to my busy work schedule i had to give it a miss. Nevermind though... market is always there!
By the way, my method is FREELY available. However for best result, it is best that you combine with other analysis like classical analysis, indicators...etc... my method can be found at
http://www.chartnexus.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=425


DJ: although a brutal sell off happened on Friday due to AIG and UBS more than expected loss. Is this a surprise to the market? I do not think so. All along, it is plain obvious this is the sector to short and anything out from them is expected to be bad. So why the sell-off? I think it is just an excuse to take profit. Either this, or the last rally was actually a chance for smartmoney to get the hell out! But since it closed just nice at the triangle support. I shall observe the rebound. Either we have a Triangle pattern failure or we have a upwards breakout of the A-triangle.




Monday at open, i shall observe the selling... because to me, if market dips below 3000 and able to bounce back, it would have been supported at the triangle trend support.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Chart pattern coming up!

Based on the STI chart, i observed a symmetrical triangle in the making. Now we are pending the breakout either to the upside or downside. 20 MA is supporting the price currently and has just turned. This is classic T.A versus indicator. keke A favourite question asked in my T.A course. Allow me to explain how do we make use of the above information to trade.

Step 1: We form an opinion base on the Triangle first. Where is the target price. Since it's a symmetrical triangle, is there something going on that the market is waiting. Here i conclude that earning season is underway and after the reporting season, price will break the triangle

Step 2: Base on the 20 DMA, since it just turned, probably i will wait for another retest at higher level before i even wants to use it as a support to track the price.

Step 3: Decision, i will hang on to my Allgreen short position until we breakout to the upside decisively.

I apologise for the lack of sharing in recent weeks as work is really full to the brim. Over the weekend, ChartNexus made another first, our CTA course reach the shore of Jakarta! At the same time, the same CTA course was being held in Singapore. A milestone reached! Going forward, it will be fun if we can link up the Singapore, Malaysia & Indonesia one day! :D

To buy or to short? To long, i will prefer to wait for further evidence of bull. To short, i will be looking at the break of the triangle to add my short positions.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

STI update

STI: After the strong surge, market took a one day break. Last night was a holiday in US, hence today's trading will be lead by Nikkei & HSI. There will be consumer index and housing data from US this week and this can move the market. Given that we have already moved higher, we must watchout for any potential sell-off. Any pull back is best not to break the higher low order.




Tat Hong: The big sell-off after various downgrades. I could have max my profit at 3.14 high but nope! keke The stupid first day sell off meant i can only take my profit at 2.86 which i decided after it refuse to close higher at closing time. The sell off took me by surprise because i had intended to avg up Tat Hong on normal retracement. Now i can look elsewhere. haha






DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Happy Valentines Day!

First of all, Happy New Year! We tanked before and after CNY. I unfortunately cut my LianBeng to have a peaceful dinner and look at where is Lian Beng now? haha Well i'm used to it! Losses are part of the game and it is also a strategic decision. I purposely sold so that the brokerage firm owe me money over the CNY which Chinese believed once you owe somebody money over the new year, you will owe him lots for the rest of the year. keke

At this stage of the market, i am still looking around for solid buys and which sector to look at. Agriculture seems to be getting volatile and we are seeing broadbased buying. I especially like the intra-day selling that was absorbed well yesterday. Buffet and the retail sales figure was what the market needed and we are now looking at potential "W" patterns all over the place. I will be keeping a lookout for those stocks that breakout successfully from this pattern.


STI update: Currently we are trading at the resistance gap and it was closed moments ago. All the gaps in STI meant crowd behaviour and emotions at their extreme and price is not moving uniformly and this is not a good bull market looks like. The level to watch should be 22SMA, it could be a good level to short if market fails there. Even on the STI, we can see "W" pattern. I will exercise patience and not risk my money in the current overly sensitive market. Volatile market is not a characteristic of a market bottom.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Chinese New Year Rally!

What timing! The rally was inline with the upcoming Chinese New Year! :D Now that we have 1.5 days before we close for CNY holidays, i am considering a hedge for my longs.

I shorted Chartered last Friday right before closing. It was a powerful rally in late afternoon and we close the week stronger. It has always been my plan to hold longs and go short one at least 1 downtrending stock. This is because I am still not sure we are out of the woods. I expect another test to the downside after the holidays hence as soon as I see weakness in my long positions, i will take my profit and add to my short positions. The rationale being, if market is to go down from here, there are 2 possibilities.

A) We achieve a higher low and selling will be well absorbed and I can square off my shorts and turn long the market.

B) We go down to at least test the low at 2745 level. If market was to head that way, i forsee it to happen in less than 5 trading sessions. Any hesistation is a sign of bulls.

2 levels we can look at from STI point of view is 3171 & 2964.

As for DJ, it is trading at the resistance level 12,800s. It is normal for a pull back as we have been going up for quite some time since the rate cut. It was a relief to see market reacts positively to the rate cut. Otherwise i would have taken a more aggressive stance in shorting.
I see DJ's support at 12,600 thereabts. But worse case scenario shouldn't take out 12340s which is a short-term fibonacci 38.2% support.

I am still not agressive in turning long on stocks. The next higher low will be excellent for me to initiate another long position. Until then, i feel it doesn't make sense to take up long positions when indexes are trading at resistance levels.

For new readers who are new to my blog and found the articles inspiring, i only have this to say, if i can do it, so can you! Trading is never a complicated affair and it is certainly not difficult unless you are trying to find a sure-win system which any experienced market participant will attest to this - it is non-existant! I too started out on the wrong foot and accumulated anything but wealth. Slowly but surely, I was able to turn profitable by managing my psychology and money management well. Of course I acquired trading methodologies known as technical analysis to aid in my comeback.

Trading should never be regarded as a form of gambling. This should be a highly regarded business where one will go through plenty of heartache, mood swing and still have the heart to continue. It is a business where failures are expected and accepted. It must be an enjoyable process otherwise those market swing days will kill the passion and joy to a certain extent, affect the personal life. One has to be emotionless in trading and this has somehow filtered into the personality. I for one has changed alot in which I would avoid senseless confrontations with fellow peers. I mean, what is there to win or lose about in an argument? Pride? Market has taught me a lesson about pride and ego long time ago. Who cares about personal opinons? In trading, we back our opinion through our positions. When we are right, we will be rewarded handsomely. If we are wrong, we accept the wrong opinion and be flexible enough to opinionate in the right direction. Pride has no place in trading. Hence, if you are new to trading, decide early if you are serious about it as a business or gambling. Otherwise don't bother, as you may end up losing in the thousands before you realise.

A simple test, from the price movement of capitaland, can you tell if it is going up or down? What are the price levels to watch out for? This is the kind of information you need to conjure opinions from.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Market drifts lower

We did not break 3000 support emphatically but surely the drift is also a cause for concern. With many market participants smart enough to stay clear of the market due to the volatile market, there was no good follow through buying in the market. Ever since the 3 days of rally last week, we have been drifting lower and lower since the week began. My anticipation of an up week seems remote. Ah Ben did me a favour by cutting the interest rate by 50 basis points and yet the market did not rally. The wisemen said, "If a good news doesn't spark off a rally, then nothing possibly will. " I'm long on 2 stocks and I have to be more cautious. My options include throwing out my line before the weekend and enjoy Chinese New Year.

3168 could be the high of this rebound and we could be heading towards 2746. Break that, we shall see more downside. If that level holds and we rebound, we could be forming a "W" bottom. This should be what many would anticipate.

Psychologically, I'm feeling bored by the market actions. It is very easy to tell my course participants to have patience and be discipline. Truth be told, this is easier said than done. I hate seeing my equity remain stagnant. There are times we have to stay sidelined and not losing unneccessary. There are 2 ways to overcome this itchiness. Firstly, close your watchlist and focus on your job. Secondly, which is a more expensive way, go for a holiday! Either way, just make sure you check the end of day data to retain the feel for the market.

4g1r signals:
China Hx
China XLX
China Milk
Chartered
SGX

If i wake up, DJ close ugly, i shall use my CFD. If DJ shows resilience, my longs should be making money.


STI: The last candlestick formed was a graveyard doji and near the 50% Fibo support. We are still facing immediate and mid-term downtrend. The gap was closed and with a graveyard doji, we still have a chance this is the immediate bottom.

随着海峡的回弹，我们经历了四日来的不断套利和卖家的压力。原本有望在此周感受到市场牛气冲天，如今却一场欢喜一场空。非波纳斯分析指出，指数很有可能在50%的支曾。加上日本腊竹法，今天毕市后，给于我们一个“一指定江山“的形状。这有望意未着海峡已见底，攻牛大哥拿下3200点的柱力可说是视目以待了。大家可不要忘记，鼠年快要来临。市场有望回弹。鼠年一过，记得好好保重。

最重要的还是得看华尔街今晚和明晚的走势。必南齐减息但市场没所表示，这令我坐立不安。因为如果强心针没作用，恐怕市场便难逃结束。

错字连遍，尽请愿谅。

帝塞富上

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Expect the Unexpected

Truth be told, Monday was very very ugly. We thought US will follow suit and continue the onslaught from last Friday..... but to many people's surprise! It didn't! Instead, it's a whopping +170s gain! Yes, expect the unexpected! The no follow through selling today could mark the end of the retracement and it will be nice to be looking for market to push to the next high. People who have been following me in waiting for the higher low, this is not the higher low. This is just a retracement on the way up. The low may be created say next month? The kind of low we want is of sustained movement, just like when market rebound, we want a sustained upwards movement.

US side tonight reported friendly CPI numbers which may pave the way for Ben to cut rate. Also, durable goods order numbers was surprisingly better than expected. This means the economy is not that bad afterall. Another confident shot to the Feds.

The world awaits the statement from FOMC. But i'm not going to do nothing....infact according to my experience, market always know before hand. Hence i will be monitoring the market for any clues of what is likely to happen.

Now, if Ben really cuts, it doesn't guarantee the market will tua rally. I will track the price closely, coz' if the cut is priced in, the upside is limited. Let us be objective, the trend of the market is still biased to the downside. Most importantly, the real world problems still persist!

I'm still holding on to my Lian Beng. The retracement so far hasn't done much harm and I kinda like the price actions. I further added Tat Hong to my portfolio near closing when 2.65 did not give way. I eye 2.64 as possible support and my view last Friday maintained, that we should close higher this week. Again, tat hong is another rare stock still trading above the 200EMA.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

I have sinned; I had LianBeng for lunch

After seeing a strong and firm morning session, i skipped lunch and began to screen for stocks to analyse, formulating scenarios in my mind and came out with a few conditions. If those conditions are met, I shall try long. Firstly, Nikkei closed the week with a hammer on the weekly chart. HSI after the massive sell down on Thursday did not have follow through. If it was really that bad, HSI would not have rallied on a Friday where traditionally no traders will carry overnight positions. Nikkei, HSI & STI all three indices has something in common. Hammer candlestick on the weekly chart. This is one component of a reversal pattern and there is a chance next week, we will close higher. Hence for next week, any weakness could be a good chance to long. Especially those agri & commodities stocks.

When the market opened after lunch, I saw LianBeng's chart and salivates. One of the rare stock still trading above the 200MA. Price actions wise suggest there is a hungry Pacman at work. 585, 600 were the levels i was watching... I established my line at 585 to 595. Once 600 clears, it is expected it should fly. However, it is a risk i am taking. I anticipated a pull back and i could have waited for the pullback to strike. Alas, i'm human afterall.


With DJ selling off, Monday could start weak. Eyeballs should be transfixed at Nikkei, how it handles the selling. It is afterall normal to have a small reaction after the big rally. Let us look towards for a higher low. Huat ah!

ChartNexus Courses

Warrants Course
Stock Selection Seminar

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Hold your breath!

The last 2 candlestick shows lots of market emotions and it came with high volume which confirms the panic. We had a hammer which is followed by an inverted hammer. I see resistance somewhere 3200s level. Incentives to move to that level include Fed's meeting which is coming up, we are some distance to the resistance level. Watching how the market behave at that level is important. We should not see heavy dumping and that after the healthy retracement, we see a higher low which to me marks the possibility of the start of an uptrend. After which we must observe the previous high and hopefully takes that out. I don't rule out a good uptrend which may last for a few months given that US Govt and policy makers are stepping in to help the market. But alas, it will only be temporary.

Currently after being shaken out of my Cosco, i am feeling frustrated. The sudden swing down of HSI caught my attention yesterday and I decided to take my profits and avoid risk.

About my macd histogram system. essentially it is a trend following system. Hence in recent weeks, no matter how you screen the market using XPertTrader, it is not going to give you any buy signals. It will also not give you any sell signal because we are on the way up! This is what having a trading system can benefit me and those using this XPertTrader rule. Signals will start coming only when trends are established. This is also why I am able to pick winners consistently for GrowMoney quickpicks.

However, since one has to wait, it also means that using this system, one has to have patience and discipline to wait for the signal to come along. Truth be told, the rally today did affect me psychologically. I am green with envy as i see Cosco going to 4.90. I am sad that I sold mine at 4.70 during the panic dumping of HSI. I felt greed and is tempted to latch on to the rally today but common sense and the past painful experience holds me back. Looooooooon ah!!! Once the trend is confirmed.. Hoot tua tua!

Patience..... orh mi tuo foo... :P

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Rebound arh!

If everything goes well, we could have seen the short-term bottom at Tuesday Low. I longed cosco taking that low as my support. My view is, that should be the low and we are heading for a rebound. This rebound should take us to STI 3100s thereabts and I will look out and becareful for dumping again. Conditions that favour this rebound include Fed's rate cut and more cuts to come when they meet? Also the traditional CNY rally. Earnings so far is disappointing. Apple gave a weak outlook for Q2 and Motorolla has a bad quater. But! Motorolla hasn't been doing well all along... hence i will be looking for strong results from the competitors to dispel worries that consumers are not spending. Anyway, Motorolla so far hasn't been producing cutting edge products.

Today I cut my loss on Cosco warrants which i took yesterday at closing. I fully deserved to lose this 2 bids trade. Though the loss is small, i am very tempted to just leave it aside because the position is small. But, i hate that kind of complacency in trading. I mean, what the heck! I didn't do my research properly and bought a call warrant which is high in premium and it will not move unless Cosco trades near 4.60s. Hence i choose to punish myself and face the music. I don't want the ill-discipline to manifest in me.

With 2 trading days to go, it will be nice if we can close above 2800s to give us a nice hammer on the weekly chart. There is no need to play god and predicts the ups and downs of the market. Like my ang mo shifu, Livingston said, "I let the tape tells me which direction it is going"

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Capitulation Time?

I refer to the high volume done today and the strong finishing actions in the futures market. We stands a good chance for a rebound in coming days. With the heavy volume marked, we saw how market recovered. I took small cosco call warrants with 2 minutes to closing when i saw FTSE coming back strongly and simsci gives a late late show. I was deciding between getting a HSI CW or an index stock. To take advantage of a rebound, I must go for index stock or index as second liners may not move. The logic is clear, when index rebounds, those stocks in the basket will move. Period.

Ah Ben cuts rate tonight. Was it a coincidence that FTSE & Simsci rebounds late in our trading time? Alas, market has never changed, the clues are there, I just need to be observant. As this is the second day of a 5% decline, a whopping 10% off the index!! Anymore, i suspect the circuit breaker will be on! Hence whole day, i have been looking out for clues of a reversal day, formulating scenarios in my head. At 3pm the first sign was there, but it was a trap. HSI futures rallied from -1800 to -1000, only to close -1800. Then with 10 mins to closing, FTSE recovered strongly suggesting they knew something and our simsci rises from the dead and at one stage was positive. The lowest of the day i think was -170s... These are the signs i needed to try long. This is even with DJ futs staring at me with -650. So long there's a reason to be long, i shall try. I assessed my risk and put up a small position. For if i'm wrong, i want to lose small. But if i'm right, and this turns out to be a Key reversal day, the reward will be many times more than the risk i took.




DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

"I can feel it in my old bones"

This was the exact words my shifu told me since last week. He could feel the market will tua lao sai. And if you think today is the worse, veterans like my shifu who gone through 1987 will give you a proper definition of a crash. Crash would mean there are no bidders, market open with a huge gap down leaving many investors dumb struck. For example, XYZ stock closed $12 in previous session and today opened at $6. This is the definition of a crash. We still have not seen the worse of the bear market.

I scouted through forums and talked to many, just because the market showed resilient, many thought it was the right time to bottom fish. I for one traded like this in the past and guess what? We are fighting against the trend. Since market is heading down, there are only 2 things you should be doing, either you completely stand aside or you short the market with CFD or put warrants. There are proper ways to identify a market bottom, so far i have not seen it. Alexander Elder in his book mentioned, "for a man who fell down from a flight of stairs, will need time to stand up, dust himself before he continues on his way." This applies to the market as well.

If you feel helpless and down, COME join the ChartNexus team at Suntec Convention Centre this Thursday, 24th Jan, 7pm. It's a great chance to join our community of investors and the ChartNexus trainers to discuss and explore how to protect and grow our $$$ in this market turmoil.

You may register at the following link >>> http://chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1226


ChinaFish on the weekly chart. Fish is next to be BBQ'ed?


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

STI update

Blind no more! Finally i am able to see STI! Rebound looks to be on the cards. However, i will still be looking to short at rebounds, hence my sight is casted at 3200s thereabts. Another trading idea is to latch on to the long side at the first reaction after the rebound. I am still searching high and low for bullish divergence but ain't seeing any. HSI 24,200s stood like a rock, tested on 2 days and despite selling pressure from DJ's horror show.... this speak alot for the support.

Counters to choose form should be the ones with the most volatile movements instead of slow moving stocks as i want to take full advantage of a quick rebound. Otherwise when the rebound finish, the slow stock could have moved only a little.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

S&P500 Just starting to crack

Scenario 1: Ah Ben cuts rate by alot because inflation data came in weaker than expected. Banks result are expected to be bad and there is some slowdown in the economy. Then we see S&P 500 rebound to the attractive level to attempt a short.

Scenario 2: We breakout out of the D-Triangle cleanly and target to downside 13,000

AVB from NYSE is the kind of stock i like... obvious downtrend! I shall initiate an outright put option on this baby because i couldn't find a good risk/reward strategy.

I am waiting patiently for a sustained rebound to my resistance levels and shall try shorts on CFD and also index. To me, the lilelyhood of a rebound is high now and it doesn't make sense for me to risk going short at such levels. For this strategy, i will be using my 4g1r system.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Where will the diarrhoea stop?

Final resting place for HSI maybe the gap support and the 200EMA. Global indices has broken down their 200EMA hence i see the odds of HSI to hold off the selling around here as remote. Any rebound, i think i will lookout for bullish divergence. It's a pity i didn't take full advantage of my correct opinion of HSI breakout to the downside where i took my put warrants profit yesterday. Nevertheless it was good profit. Wait for another chance! :P


DJ looks set to break the uptrend support line. I will be looking out for hammer on this line or any bullish reversal patterns should this line holds. Otherwise target base on D-Triangle is 11,800 thereabts.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Finally 26k gives way! Target price base on D-Triangle is 22k thereabts.. of course we won't go there one straight line. Hence at every rebound, i will look for opportunities to establish short positions. What about market bottom? will we have a complete reversal from this week onwards? I will look out for signs of a bottom like higher low and use the trend indicator to confirm before i even want to be interested in going long on hsi.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Wanna profit from the rebound?

The bearish breakout finally happened. Many descending triangles gave way. It was a pretty ugly sight. Along the way, when the descending triangles were forming, we had many decent rebounds. I got vested at one such rebound last month but only had to cut as there was no follow through buying. Follow through buying is a sign of bull market marked with tame selling. What I saw was gains very cheaply given back to the market by the brutal selling, volatile market actions...etc.. all these are not signs of bull market. As of now, i still do not see signs of a bottom as yet.

STI is now officially trading below the 200DMA. This is where in wall street they regard it as a bearish sign. All you need to do is to check 1997 and year 2000... compare the relationship between 200dma and STI, you will appreciate what is happening now.

Going forward, we may have some rebound. I for one a not interested to profit from this. For me, i want to establish short positions strategically. If the coming rebound is one of the lower high of the downtrend, then i would have shorted at a very good position. I trade with a longer view by the charts.

When HSI rallies to 27,400 last Friday, I initiated a put warrant position as I recognise that resistance level from the chart. True enough HSI closed down 400 on Friday and my position swings into profit. With DJ closing overnight losing -247 points, i beginning to fancy a 1k decline in HSI today..... it never did. Hence my plan is, I will add if the descending triangle breaks convincingly. Or if 27,600 gives way, I will cut my losses. I am still not interestedin stocks as of now, prefering to focus on HSI.

US side, plenty of data this week... so let us expect a volatile week!

Clue: Lookout for 4g1r!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.