HSI Update

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

It could have been better

Instead of setting the regional markets on fire, we finish slow and steady. With DJ breaking 13k and staying above, the first part of my anticipation came true. However HSI didn't burst the resistance and closing below it. According to my experience with HSI, if on song, it will easily break the resistance. It just didn't happen today. I promptly took my profit at resistance when it failed the second time during intraday. This is despite that i think DJ can still close up tonight. Today's weakness echoes what i have observed last 3 days.....a hesistant market. Leaving the HSICW overnight to bet on a open rally tomorrow is called gambling. To execute a trade according to a plan is called trading.

One reason for the lethargic markets, everyone has the fear of a market plunge. Again most breakouts failed and follow through buying is rare unlike few weeks ago.

ChinaShares which had gone quiet for weeks appeared in my hitlist tonight. They may start to party soon. Also noted property sector seems to have found bottomed. Both CSC and Yongnam looks to be shaking out weak holders for now. Weekly charts are intact.

Other than taking profit on HSI, no other trades done. I am looking forward to cash out some of my holdings.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Dow Jones Tested 13k

I hope tomorrow morning when I open my eyes, I see 13,050 printed on ChannelNewsAsia! HSI 21k Boleh!!!

Precision Engineering/Manufacturing, the hidden industry that keeps appearing in my hit list everynight. Nan dao semi conductors really salt fish turn around? I recall sending an email to alert my 2 email groups abt possible turn in the semiconductor industry yesterday and today once again after screening the market, i am seeing a couple of precision related companies.

Bought StraitsAsia today after receiving a signal last night. Also bought HSI CW the day before when HSI was trading at 20,400 support. The thing about trading index is, we need to know what is happening globally. I see strength in US. For STI, very resilience. Infact i could feel the whole global market is waiting for something to happen. It was a very tight range trading for the last 3 days with neither the bulls nor bears winning. I doubt we are breaking down. Let us break upwards before cutting down...this will be more convincing.

GrowMoney QuickPicks
HGMetal
FerroChina
ChinaWheel
HiapSeng
Ultro
ZHguo Powerpl

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

HSI Update

With HSI retracing at RSI resistance, once again, support from 20,000 to 20,200 will be tested. Meanwhile, more weakness is expected from HSI, probably sideway trading. 20,400 will be trendline support for short term.

If you are still not aware, ChartNexus has all the world indices charts in Version 2.0. Enjoy!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

A feeble Rally

I observed construction companies are currently held off and did not make much progress. Also, the top volume list today saw many penny shares do not have the same follow through buying as compared to previous weeks. Tonight's homework will be to observe the last time penny shares started to look feeble in their rally and what happens after that.

Regional indices too closed weak after a gap up open. This is not good. If US is to fumble tonight, we may experience more downside in coming days. Trading in April and May is always tricky. It is not hard to observe that most breakout fails spectacularly. Again proof of no follow through buying. Property sector, which leads us into historical highs are showing bearish divergence. Livermore says, when the leaders start to show cracks, the second stringers won't be able to support it for long. Last thursday's 100 points selloff did not kill STI and we rebounded. But this is a warning to me.

Important Events this week
Apr 24
Consumer Confidence (Apr , 2007)
Apr 24
Existing Home Sales (Mar , 2007)
Apr 25
Durable Goods Orders (Mar , 2007)
Apr 25
New Home Sales (Mar , 2007)
Apr 25
Beige Book (Mar , 2007)
Apr 26
Jobless Claims (wk4/21 , 2007)


GrowMoney Growth Fund
CSC
YongNam
Noble Grp
Swiber
Wilmar
SkyPetrol
Equation

Seksun was sold after it fails the breakout again last week. I am transfering the funds to other stock. Added more Yongnam when it broke out and also added Equation.

Ulu Counters (Speculative):
Jasper
PDC
AutoSys

HLG was sold into rally on last Friday.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

HSI Update

The red arrow points to 20200 to 20000 where it will be an excellent chance to go long on HSI but it powers ahead. HSI stumbled at uptrend resistance line at yesterday's closing and today's dip is natural. 20,400 is the level where HSI may seek comfort.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Sister stock trading

Swiber and Swissco playing like sister stocks. I personally like to trade on stocks like this. If you compare the 2 charts, you will find that it has the same pattern. Why do they have the same pattern and price actions? My dear friends, stock market is a very complex place and I leave it to your imagination what had happened as I only dare mention behind closed doors.. keke


Swiber: A reminiscence of Cosco. I received question why am i holding on to Swiber ? Other than it's in the sector which I am in favour of doing well this year, simply the stock didn't break the trendline. I have said many times, technical analysis is not difficult. It is only difficult if you are trying to find the holy grail. The experienced ones will tell you, no way would you find a sure win T.A reading. The simpler you use T.A, the easier it is. If you don't see an obvious positive sign, just sit aside. Jesse Livermore said, " Only fools believe they should trade daily, big money is made by sitting tight" However, Livermore is only half right..... capital market has become global and more volatile than his time. I personally have friends who are very good at contra and making money intraday. I wish I could join them, but realistically speaking, I do not have the time to sit in front whole day and monitor the prices. Hence I would be a pig waiting to be slaughtered and it will be a sure way to decapitalise my account



Swissco: Look at the similarity between the 2 stock.

GrowMoney Growth Fund
Cash:
CSC
YongNam
Noble Grp
Swiber
Seksun
Wilmar
SkyPetrol

UnionMet was thrown out on 13th Apr after the disappointing results and it broke it's support.

Ulu Counters (Speculative):
Jasper
HLG
PDC
AutoSys

CPF:
SPH
Asti

I won't be showing price levels anymore because many people are guessing my networth when they saw my last portfolio before I liquidated during the Feb meltdown. keke But if you die die must know, you can follow everyday when did I buy and when did I sell and do a cross check on the price on that day. :P

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Penny Stocks rule

I remember posting the key takeaways from an investment talk which I was part of. Construction was mentioned together with gas and oil plays. It is no surprise we are going to see new highs for construction companies again. While I miss their growing up days, after I reset my portfolio, i began to build around this sector. The current theme seems to be ulu stocks... stocks that are very very cheap and they breakout like crazy. Trading these stocks need to be nimble. Index tanked more than 1 percent and yet my portfolio made money. This is because I had stayed away from index stocks prefering to focus on the construction sector where my portfolio is at least 50% vested.

Alot of people has been asking me why do I blog so infrequent these days. Super busy these days running around. But here i am again! :D haha And not forgetting the quickpicks!!! :D

Yes my UnionMet reported a set of lousy report. Let's see do i need to cut position tomorrow. I am still holding onto sicksun read Seksun. Nothing bearish so got to hold and wait.

Did i buy Utac despite highlighting it is a good risk reward trade? No I didn't. I bought Wilmar instead on that day. I never like Tech stocks, they seems to be one day wonder... but look at Utac today... !@##@$# no choice, i cannot be everywhere.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
Kingwan
Lottvis
Chinasky
CSC
ZhonguoPowerplus
Yongnam

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Market at new highs again

Market made new highs. Along the way, i managed to grab a few counters on the way up. It was a fantastic Monday where market went up at least 50 points. However my counters did not move. Infact they moved last 2 weeks and this week they simply rested. This is a sign of rotation. It seems like market is rotating it's way up. Properties, Hotels, Banks, ChinaStocks, Energy alternatives, Constructions took their turn. Tech stocks to move next??? Water stocks maybe? Somehow there seems to be positive newsflow coming from that sector. Also to note, penny stock are hogging the top volume. It will be rewarding if you picked the right one and it can easily double in value.

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CSC
YongNam
Noble Grp
Swiber
Seksun
UnionMet
Wilmar
SkyPetrol

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

STI Rising Wedge Negated

We broke out of STI's rising wedge formation and it will be good if we can close above it by Friday. We are now very near it's apex and this formation should be negated. Market direction currently points up, pretty inline with global markets.

Never argue with the market. I will never forget this important philosophy in trading. When I was wrong twice in March about being bearish. I wasted no time in dumping the PWs and went long. Loads of philosophies in trading are very useful and somehow, they are already well drilled into me after so many years. Gosh, time really flies, getting older and older, soon no more late twenties! cham ah! hahaha

I fancy the charts of UTAC, very close to it's 20 days' low, pretty good risk reward to the upside.

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CSC
YongNam
Noble Grp
Swiber
Seksun
UnionMet

Today bought UnionMet after I think it is a normal pull back after a breakout.

The popular Cracking the Stock Market Code is open for intake 11! lai lai interested party please get more information from www.chartnexus.com/events. Just a side note, if you been following my blog, you should know i am very direct and straight forward in trading. Hence when I deliver the course, it is delivered to you in the same simple and straight forward manner with no beating about the bush. The lessons are very practical to Singapore Market and you get a headstart by knowing what works and what doesn't. Feel free to chat to any one who attended this course if you are hesistating. If you always wanted to know how come my quickpick list has a certain degree of accuracy, this is the course to learn it. What's more, it's cheaper than a contra loss! :D

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Market ignoring all the bad signs

Shifu notified me a very important sign, I been too blinded by the movement to miss it. That is, market has been ignoring the bad signs and keep heading higher. This is abnormal. Hence precaution is needed.

I was all ready to bail out of my portfolio as my anticipated pull back happened mid week. However, it merely retraced one day and rebound back up.

If window dressing does happen, we should have a few up days this coming week and after that, be very careful. It is exactly this period, April, alot of money is lost. Let us see how the week will start.

GrowMoney Growth Fund
CSC
YongNam
Noble Grp
Swiber
Seksun

*After losing 2 rounds from Put Warrants, I turned long 2 weeks ago and started creating my GrowthFund again. Huat ah!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Flat Market

Market surprisingly hold it's ground after a hostile weekend. Iran captures British soldiers and UN threatens with sanctions. But STI and global markets are expected to pull back, this is because of an excellent yester week . Now the interesting thing to note will be how far and low this pull back is.


STI formed a rising wedge in the making, 3153 can be short term support for now, let's see how we survive the bears raid. If we are supported there, i will nibble some stocks soon.

Patience...no point guessing a bottom, it will be easier to make once it is established. Classical Analysis will work. Higher high, higher low.....Uptrend

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2007 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Key Take Aways From Investment Talk

For those of you who weren't at the NTUC Auditorium for the Investment talk organised by Lim & Tan Securities, let me share with you the key take aways. Very simple, 3 main sectors to focus on, Construction, Marine & Offshore and Financial Services. These are sectors I heard from SIAS Research speaker Terence Wong. Of course the talk is more than that but my brain can only remember these...keke i salivates at the free information! keke As for my own 40 mins, I introduce Technical analysis to the audience with some key concepts in a straight forward manner. Nothing much.

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Swiber
NOL

At close today, I bought HSICW for quickie trade again. Currently I'm holding Noble and STIPW. The all important speech by Big Ben is ready to set the direction for market. We had rebounded nicely and i notice, everytime we threatened to the downside, we are matched with bargain hunters equally hungry to buy the shares. Volume though low, but I keep noticing how individual stocks or smaller caps and mid caps, some are with volume and many are trading near the pre meltdown levels. I am cautiously bullish abt the direction. At the next pull back, watch for the strength of the pull back, if it's healthy, i will add on more stocks.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Market had a 2 days rally

Market rallied after a brilliant 112 rally by DJ. Thing to note today will be how the STI is looking now. RSI is at resistance, price chart has a short term symmetrical triangle. It must also be noted that from up 30s we finished the day just up 3 points. Index may be down but overall stocks made good gains. STI failed at the gap resistance and closed below 50MA. I be interested if 50MA starts to support STI. Should we head down, given the high volatility, smelly smelly a minimum of 50 points decline. Down is always faster than up, simply because humans are driven by fear.

After 2 days of blank, finally I have stocks on my XPertTrader system! hehe

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Hobee
UIC
CDLHTrust
CAO

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Bottom not found

The 3rd week has passed after the sudden meltdown and the market still hasn't found bottom. I will not be in a hurry to pick up stocks yet. Using the simplest form of chart reading.... bad news..descending triangles everywhere. I fear a further break to the downside. This is highly possible given that we do not have any incentive to head up. Tuesday, Wednesday brings about volatility....Fed will be meeting up. With market already taken a beating, i doubt they dare to anyhow talk...if they dare to raise rate, global market no eyes see. China has increased rate over the weekend, it will be interesting to see how the market will take it.

Jurong Tech looks very weak and seems like more downside to at least 0.80 or 0.775. A quick trade saw me profiting from my HSI CW. Gosh it feels good to win again! It will be like a boxing match for now until I see a market bottom. Boxing match as in, hitting and doging the blows. In trading we call it swing trading. Otherwise it's commonly known as quickie.

The probability of downside is more than upside, that's why I am keeping my STIPW. The fact here is, when the market pulls back, it will be done so fast so quick. When the market rallies, it will be resisted by plenty of stale bulls. This is where the STIPW will run faster in my favour should the market tanks, and will depreciate slowly when market rallies.

Watch on...

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Dow Jones Against All Odds

With Asia and Europe facing sell off, many didn't gave Dow Jones a chance. It once traded at -130 and amazingly close up 50 points. I went to sleep thinking next day my PW will be spectacular. It was indeed a rude shock to see DJ up by 50 points. This goes to show why risk management is important. Despite high chance of Dow Jones plunging, expect the unexpected! Hence no matter how strongly I feel about the direction, i made it a habit to still trade within my money management rules so that when something like this happens, it's just another loss.

Chartered was sold yesterday and I kept Noble. Texas Instrument gave a bleak outlook and I didn't like the risk involved with Tech counters. I added HSI CW at close because I cannot ignore the strong closing of DJ, it formed an amazing "tui" right on 12K support. Under tremendous selling pressure and able to close positive, I anticipate follow through buying tonight and the PPI numbers will be friendly. This HSI CW is only for a quickie and I maintain my STIPW.

The pattern over the last 3 weeks seem to be a big sell off will come after the market moves up. The volume when heading up is always lower than when it's heading down. Hence it's pretty obvious there are signs of jacking higher to "unload". Another observation is how the stocks are doing lower highs on rebound. The only conviction I need now is to see lower lows. This bull run is matured since it is born in mid 2003. It's only a 4 yrs old bull and we still have more room on the upside. It is further noted, no reversal chart formations and bearish divergence is noted as yet. The race is on to identify the leaders of the next leg of the bull cycle!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Market showed true colours

The market rebounded spectacularly for 5 days before another rout took place. The rebound was noted with lesser volume on the way up which to many wasn't going to sustain. But the rise caught many in complacent mode and once again we tanked this time lead by US subprime loans problems. Nikkei and HangSeng lead us into the red and this selling erased all the gains in the rebound, classic! Fear not, this is how a bottom should be formed. Let us be patience and wait for it to form.


STI on the daily: We have now met resistance at the first gap and reversed to a lower high recorded. Now this is what can happen:
1) STI finds support at the last low near 2960s thereabts.
2) STI finds support along 100MA.
3) STI test 2880 thereabts.
4) Most unlikely to happen is we rebound tomolo to close the gap.

HSI 18,618 is major support, breaks that, up the lorry....

The rebound over the last 5 days left me looking silly as stocks threatened to resume uptrend without me onboard. My opinion of the market after I liquidated was that it should head down further however it traded otherwise. Hence inorder not to miss the run if we really have a reversal in the making, I bought Chartered and Noble yesterday. My plan was to buy small and add if market continues to head higher however both tanked and I look set to liquidate and focus on the short side.

"V" type of rebound has the highest failure rate and today market turned down again. My plan last week was to liquidate my portfolio and turn short at rebound, hence with this turn in market, i proceed accordingly. Important thing is ask not where the market is going, but what you going to do when the market gets there.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Rebound silenced

HSI, Nikkei and STI all closed weaker in tantem after a strong rally yesterday. A reminder to all, in bull market, we want to see the day close higher, in bear market, the day will close lower.

A reversal will not be strong unless it goes through a series of natural rallies and then declines to form a bottom. It is at this bottom we will launch into a new bull cycle. However as there is little or no news until the next earnings in July, market may range trade and the lowest level I eye will be 2880. Otherwise I will be looking out for signs of a bottom. Those interested, I implore you to read through my archives of May'06 to Aug'06. It will give you a good feel of how a bottom will be formed.

There is a possibility we test and break 3k psychological level by Friday. With HSI's 19k and Nikkei's 17k giving way, once DJ's 12k give way, no chance at all for STI.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Middle finger to the bear

Fool me once and it's my fault, fool me again and i'm the fool. When the market open down today, I know I have to get out of the market. Hence at open, I saluted my middle finger at the bears and began selling. No way am I surrending all my profits to the market. I have conceived a plan to get out of the market over the weekend and I simple throw my emotions aside and sold like a robot. Gosh! and the market tanked half an hour later.... the feeling was like escaping death.

My observations were:

1) When market tanked last Tuesday, there was no strong rebound. Everyone seems to be waiting to sell at the next rebound. My thought was, if everyone wants to get out at rebound, who on earth will buy and thus cause the rebound? It then became clear that I cannot wait for the rebound. Another thought about waiting for rebound, everyone hope we can reb0und from 3000 to maybe 3200, but another possible scenario, we can drop to 2800 and then rebound to 3000.... by then I would have lost more! Also what difference does it make to me, for me to lose 20 cts to cut now and to cut at almost the same level after a rebound? and that is when I don't even know where the rebound will be. I cannot expect the market to go to where I want, but i can decide what to do whereever the market is trading at.

2) After intensive research into market tops on Dow Jones and STI charts, it became clear to me, the probablity of going further down is at least 80% as compared to a immediate rebound. Hence when market open Monday without a rebound, my gut feel said, "Enough Dec, don't be stupid and throw away good profits!" and thus, GrowMoney Growth Fund has gone 100% cash and this time round I have kept a majority of my profits intact :D .....a distinct difference during the May'06 debacle. Avoiding the same costly mistakes has become my forte. If you keep avoiding the pitfalls in trading, how can you not make money?

3) Alot of the anlaysts and economists are pacifying investors saying correction is normal and healthy to the market and that economies fundamentals are still strong. Now this is wierd, i never see them show concern last May when we tanked. Even Greenspence issue a make up statement abt recession after his first send the Dow into tailspin. With so much assurance, market didn't have a decent rebound, it's high chance more downside is coming.

What's next? I'll be waiting to short at rebound. You might be thinking, this decipher is crazy!! If he thinks there is a rebound, then why does he has to exit all positions, he can sell higher at rebound! minimising losses. My reply: Psychology in trading is the utmost impt and somehow mostly ignored. Would I be able to think objectively looking at my profits contracting? Would I bear to sell when market rebound? Why should I risk a majority of my profits for the few cents rebound? Now with 100% cash, not only am i in better condition psychologically, I have the cash to trade on the short side.

Just watched Rocky Balboa in the evening...there is this particular scene where he was lecturing his son. The philosophy was very meaningful and it can be applied to trading.

"In life, you are bound to get hits and it's going to knock you down to the floor a couple of times. You have to muster enough strength and take the hits and move forward. Only a coward will blame he, she, them, they for something that he didn't fight for."

In Trading, losses are part of the game, we must have proper risk mgmt to minimise the impact the losses will hurt us and move forward and towards Total Profitability. We are our own weakest link in trading, if we don't sort ourselves out, no one can help us.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Finally it became clear

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.