Red Star Army Marches on!

Our market was pretty resilient to the selling pressure due to the N.Korea missles test. China stocks were heavily sold yesterday and I warned of a sell off which never happened!!! Shooting stars required black candle confirmation for a bearish formation. During intra-day i observed that instead of closing with black candle, i was seeing strength in China stocks broadbased. Of course strength from Hang Seng helped alot. I revisited history back in 2005. Back then, i keep waiting for retracement to buy and market drifts further away from me! This time round, I am not stupid! When my anticipation of a pull back did not happen and instead the behaviour was strong, i just went ahead and buy instead of wait. I reckoned, as long as i have sound money management rule which is important for the long run, I should just go ahead.

From my system scan, the undertone of the market is bullish. Strengths are in Banking and finance and our China Darlings.


ChinaHong


MediaRing


ChinaPetro


ChinaSky


JurTech


Cosco

News:
Singapore Press Holdings Limited wishes to announce that it will release its financial results for the Third Quarter ended 31 May 2006 on Tuesday, 11 July 2006.

GrowMoney QuickPick
FabChem
FungChoi
Luzhou

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Shooting Stars in China Gang

I saw many many shooting stars in china stocks. Watch out dudes! Overall weakness all over the place. All the while i didn't like the way stocks struggled at resistance, it broke through the roof yesterday only to see majority of them gave back the gains.

With North Korea ti ti siao siao (*naughty*), it pays to be careful. However, get ready your bullets, for, if we are not going down heavily, it augers well for another push up! Let me remind all of us that we have been going up for the last 2 weeks, any pull back is only healthy.

COSCO Ship update

Samle of GrowMoney Yahoo Group email:

Hello fellas!

How's trading? I know it's been a long time since i write privately
to the group. No good lobangs recently. However I found a pretty
neat idea on earning from the internet advertising. We will talk more
about it later part of the email. But when you see me posting
articles...i am coming back! It's time to make money! :D

As for market directions, before the sell down, i had been very
cautious after the elections as i mentioned that history showed that
market will be down. I never expect the selling to be of such
magnitude! Now that worldcup is coming to an end, it's time to start
looking again. I myself have been picking up and selling over the
last 2 weeks, making a little first because I think market can still
swing wildly.

With the market rebounded from the lows in May, please do not think
the bear market days are over! This is a dangerous thought. This can
just be a rebound and a fall to the downside will hurt many who have
become complacent. I urge all of us to be more attentive to your
holdings now. It is pretty unhealthy for the market to keep pushing
higher without some selling and retracement. Remember Apr/May? We keep
going up and finally collapsed! Did you see how the china stocks keep
pushing up? wah even i am surprised! While i noticed that they were
struggling to break resistance, today they simply blast through! But
my eyes were on the local stocks. National Day is coming!!! Singtel,
GLC-linked companies..do take a look at them...when market is busy
with china stocks...i think Index linked counters is worth taking a
look! :D That's also why i am holding to my cosco.

Another trick is to look at a stock's last results...business
fundamentals have not changed. Only the sentiment of the market has
changed. So look for those companies with growth still in them and of
course, potentially good results!

Alot of people have been asking about SPH. For me, as long as they
are not selling paragon, this is a reason to hold on to it! :D Do you
know paragon is woth at least $0.50 per share??? That's more than 10%
at current stock price! Once they sell, i will collect the dividends
+ special dividends and look elsewhere.

While others like to boast about what had already happened, i am
different! Firstly, i'm not a guru. I think sharing the next move is
better for everyone instead of leaving you drooling abt what i had
bought. Of course you need to do ur own analysis on top of mine to
decide instead of following blindly.

Here's the bit about internet advertising. As you all know, i'm out
of the google adsense program. No more free lunch at kopi tiams..keke
But!!! I have found another local company who is doing internet
marketing too. It's at it's infancy stage but i'm diving in because:
- no capital required
- I earned money from internet advertising before and know it's not a
scam (Google Adsense)
- Simple way to earn pocket money, since we got to be online anyway

Now instead of clicking google ads to support poor old
Decipher...where you don't get a share of it! ha! But at least good
stocks pick right? :P Now with email cash pro, you can earn from the
internet too! Now we can all grow money together!

http://www.emailcashpro.com/?r=decipher
This is my referal link, so it will be good if you sign up via me.
It's something like MLM...many levels..

Thanks!
Decipher
P.S Watch this space, national day is coming, i will scrutinise all
the GLCs or index stocks. For those who have the time to trade
frequently, you can visit my blog for daily dose. This is the time to
stop thinking abt worldcup and start making money via trading!

Cosco Ship

STI 2400 here we come!

At the time of posting, US market is very bullish, DJ up by 80 points! Ben is going to speak later. If tomorrow morning we no see DJ above 80 points, this is the face that we will not forget!!!! hahaha Other than Ben's speech, let's not forget funds need to dress their portfolio swee swee for 2H2006.


STI Cheong arh!!! *click to play*
*A clip from my favourite drama serials, "The Greed Of Man"* keke



LandWind: Natural Pull Back?


ChinaSun: Sunrise soon?


Hongguo: Instituitional Coverage.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Hold Your Breath!

Wow, the more I look at the charts, the more bearish i feel. I saw many charts trading at or near resistance, upside is pretty limited. Hence, unless Ben speaks favourably, otherwise we are going to test lows. If Ben speaks favourably, we will breakout convincingly. China stocks covered their opening common gaps today. Infact most of them close with a white candle signifying buying interest. But still to me, it's like playing big or small in a casino. While many choose to stand aside prefering to affirm Ben's speech, some daredevils seize the chance to play contarian for a favourable speech.


Hongguo: Brother HongXing has bucked the trend and moved up astonishingly. Surely it will trigger Hongguo to move???


Celestial: Once a market darling, recently struggling at resistance 1.40


Rotary: A wide angled view


Cosco: STI component, if Ben behave himself, STI will rally! Today's volume broke 50 ma of volume! Something will happen and very soon.

Good luck everyone!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

All eyes on Big Ben

Tomorrow's speech by Ah Ben shall determine our direction. While market has factored in the interest rate hike, it's the future interest rate outlook that is under the microscope. If Ben says, "We have done enough for this year. There will be no further hikes until 2007". Wah! Then you better sell car sell house must buy ah!!! *kidding* It's time i start to trade more seriously since the interest in market has hot up. :D Been guilty about watching too much foot ball! WAh! If only i'm so sensible during my schooling days! hahahaha

Market has quietly crept up during the worldcup. I was too engrossed in World Cup and didn't pay much attention to market until my eyes caught the many bottoms of the china stocks. (I kept a list of high volume china stocks) Then I immediately cast my net. @#$@#!@ First to run away was Hongguo at 0.520 and Hongxing at 1.11. I was too slow to react and they blast off! Without wasting too much time i latch on to LandWind, Nikkei babies and Longcheer. Landwind tested my patience my drifting down for the first week. Nikkei babies drifted at the money and Longcheer was the more dangerous trade. I applied trading trend here with very tight stop loss. I bought at 0.845 and used minor low 0.820 as my cut loss level. For I know, if longcheer is strong, it will rally next few sessions. True enough, i never see my buy level after second day. Sensing the china stocks has moved alot, our local oil plays start to tango. Rotational play! I began to think rotational play was on going and tried to play smart by anticipating STI components to rally too and bought Cosco Corp last week. Sad to say, it's still in tight trading range between 1.21 to 1.24......just have to wait it out. Today I sold LandWind and Longcheer after they both came down from their day's high shaprly. Something which will not happen in a strong market. Initiatlly, i wanted to hold and wait it out, but upon seeing same weakness in other china stocks, I sold. Especially Longcheer because i am late into the trend and will be caught offside if there is a wild swing down. Hence I took profit off Landwind and Longcheer. I'm now left with Cosco Corp and Nikkei Babies which expire in Sept so that gives me some time to hang around. Remember, babies has severe time decay during the last 30 days. Now i'm enjoying theta and a slow delta and yet ITM. So I shall wait to see Nikkei 16,000 points. I am betting market to move up after Ben's speech. If market is firm tomorrow, i might pick up more cosco and other china stocks. A reminder, index stocks have not moved much yet.

After doing my sentiment study of the market, heavy profit taking accross the board. Everyone is awaiting Ben's speech. As the saying goes, when everyone is selling, we buy! Hence don't just sit and wait....make full use of your money management and cut loss discipline to take some risk!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Normal pull back or Reversal?

This is a risk here. With Dow going down by 60 points, Nikkei currently trading at negative region. Should I hold or take profits? Next week we will have Fed's meeting that is what the market will be waiting for. But ever since the decline, Fed has mentioned, hinted, more than once that inflation is his main worry. The challenge for him is to manage inflation and slow growth. Slow growth of course will cause more harm to the market. I do not think we are reversing out of a bear market yet. The higher we climb the more delicate the situation. For I remember market always give people a second chance to get out of the way. Earnings season coming up, that should be positive for the market. Otherwise, I will take a very cautious approach.

My view before the worldcup is that June was a good month to form a base. It is happening right now. After a base, we should be heading up. This upwards movement will be key. If it is unable to sustain, it will be dangerous as we can see us breaking STI 2280. Perhaps even see 2190 where many analysts predicted.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Today's interest

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Cosco Corp
Longcheer

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Today's interest

Lai lai...

Today I saw many support and these are what i am interested in. Market is drifting aimlessly after last Friday's rally. Highly volatile for the next few days.

Hongguo
HongXing
Landwind breaks 0.450 ho say ah!

Something struck me. I shouldn't be applying techniques that worked well for me in the bull market. We are now seeing strong bears and hesistant bulls. I should reverse my thinking. If this is a bear market, i should profit from rebound. With downside pressure, why am i buying at support? It will break easily.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Trade Quickies!

With the rebound so strong globally led by Dow, it's time for some quickie trades!
But if market suddenly U-Turn, do not argue with market and hope for rebound!

Lai lai, here comes my breakouts of 50 days volume stocks. Please do your due diligence in determining whether you are interested with the stocks.

Luzhou
Longcheer

Market recoiled, which way will it breaks?

Expect the unexpected. It's not just the stock market, if i'm from the Ukraine team, i'll be dumbstrucked! barely 50 mins, down by 3 goals, down to 10 men. How to play on?

Back to the market, according to Astrology Analysis, we will have a rebound on the 15th June 2006. Anyway with the recent heavy selling, a rebound is on the cards, but the question on everyone's lips is, when!

Charts by popular demand. From 5pm to 8pm, just key in the stock of your interest and the most voted will be charted.





DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Another strike by the bears!

STI tested it's low at 2280 thereabouts today. Even with lighter volume due to the worldcup going on, there was no escape from an overnight big loss in Dow Jones. As i am writting, Dow has closed another 88 points down...more heartache in 5 hours time. I wouldn't call 2280 as a key support level because the downside pressure has not subsized yet. There is the all important Fed meeting end of June. For those who are concerned about rebounds and reversal, you can consider trying to long when we are more than 10% away from 200MA. Or, we break 200MA and stay above.


Semb Marine by popular demand. The most obvious sign is the breaking of 200MA. As the saying goes, the bulls play above the 200MA line and the bears live under it. A resistance gap can be seen at 2.88 to 2.80, trading opportunity will be a protective stop above 2.88 there abouts. Fibbo retracement at 23.6% (2.697) has been broken. Next target could be 2.272. It will however be wonderful if stock price float ard this point and refuse to go lower. I'm watching the gap to determine it's nature.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

World Cup takes it's toll on market interest

As expected the world cup has taken away market interest and our market drifts aimlessly...or did it? A number of individual stocks made their move and made impressive gains but the volume is suspicious. My dear brothers and sisters, this is where things start to get interesting. Individual stocks should be monitored closely for I think when interest returns from the world cup, we can sell to them. keke On a more serious note, a friend of mine reminded me the similarities between '87 crash and present correction. Trade with eyes open. I scanned the market, today's actions looks mixed..not much serious interest. But! Remember, individual stocks must be monitored closely for any chance for a quickie.


LandWind == Windfall? :P


SGX by popular demand. 3.50 was a rather weak support last tested at about 6 mil volume during late Febuary. Today it was broken as the stock close at 3.46 with about 13 mil volume. The next thing to note is the rebound off the 200MA. Support will be $3.40 for now, break that maybe can short? I thought I saw a recent downgrade report. Trend is obviously downtrend. A rebound can happen if Dow behaves tonight. But only a rebound..i will not buy and sit on profits.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Trading with volume

Over the last few days, i read up on volume which is the oxygen to the stock market. The heavier the volume, the more commited the traders are. Blow off is the last surge at the last stage of a trend. As we know we are now in a bearish phase of the stock market and that many people are looking for bottom and reversals to go long. Blow off is one such sign. Where after it happens, the stock retested the lows on a lower volume offering excellent chance to catch reversal.

Remember how we rally very strongly during the first few months of 2006? Then, every other day market rallies strongly and people were calling me names, "even monkeys make money during a bull market" they were right. Not because i'm a monkey!! But the buying sentiment is really strong and everyone jumped onto the bandwagon until a point where there were no more buyers left to continue this run. A trend feeds on itself where bulls keep buying and bears keep selling. During a bullish phase, the bulls buy at the sell queue, the bears have to buy back higher to cover position thus aiding the rally. This is a self sustained trend. The same is now happening. The bears are bold enough to sell to the buyers at the bidding queue during a bearish phase, the bulls are selling lower to cut loss and ease their pain.

Some will argue that the economic view is still strong. Stock market is more than just economies. It is about human emotions and is often sentiments driven. Hence to me, I prefer respect the sentiment driven factor and trade with my eyes wide open amidst a growing economy for I know, the stock market is at least 6 months ahead of economy.

I tried successfully ambushing the bears at support levels for Hongguo last week. I sold for quick profits. It doesn't make sense for me to swim against the downtrend. Also, I notice the market has the knack of performing a one day wonder rally to trap people. Really is hai si lang!(hokkien for dragging people into trouble)

(In my trading class, there were a few non chinese, i apologise for my Singlish used in this blog and the lesson. But if it will drive accross my points in local context, i will continue to use it and give you the English equivalent. haha!)

With my focus on the world cup, it will be great if we can help each other out. I invite you to key in the stock you think is interesting in the shout box above daily from 5pm to 8pm. The stock with the highest count will be charted and posted up on my blog. Let's work together and tua tua huat!!! :D (hokkien for prosperity!)

Cheong arh!

Cheong arh!!!
*A clip from my favourite drama serials, "The Greed Of Man"* keke

STI slipping lower

Tonight I present a list of stocks that is near or at it's 52 weeks low with weak RSI. These stocks are weak. For any rebound in them, it will be useful to judge by T.A if the rebound is weak or strong before we can short sell it. Here I am talking about short selling with CFD or SBL account. Definitely not an invite for naked short.

There is still no strength in the market. I didn't like the way it slipped under the 200MA. Now it has deviate from my anticipation and I have changed my view. To me, it looks like a short sell on a rebound above 2400 or even 2500. The key thing to watch out will be follow through buying and volume. Most importantly, we must watch how it performs when the rebound has peaked.

Stocks at or near 52 weeks low with weak RSI
AllcoReit ((Price at/near historical low 0.86))
BOC MBL eCW070108 ((Price at/near historical low 0.285))
BrightWor ((Price at/near historical low 0.395))
CapitaMall ((Price at/near historical low 2.15))
ChinaEssen ((Price at/near historical low 0.49))
ChinaFlexP ((Price at/near historical low 0.39))
ComfortDelGro ((Price at/near historical low 1.43))
Fabchem ((Price at/near historical low 0.46))
Full Apex ((Price at/near historical low 0.27))
Gen Int ((Price at/near historical low 0.325))
Hi-P ((Price at/near historical low 0.985))
Hyflux ((Price at/near historical low 2.3))
JurTech ((Price at/near historical low 1.0999999761581427))
LMA Intl ((Price at/near historical low 0.69))
MacqIntInfra ((Price at/near historical low 0.83))
MapletreeLog ((Price at/near historical low 0.885))
Meiban Gp ((Price at/near historical low 0.245))
MMP Reit ((Price at/near historical low 0.905))
Noble Grp ((Price at/near historical low 0.96))
Pacific HC ((Price at/near historical low 0.235))
Sing Tel ((Price at/near historical low 2.33))
SPH ((Price at/near historical low 3.98))
Star Pharm ((Price at/near historical low 0.42))
StarCrusUS$ ((Price at/near historical low 0.195))
THBEV ((Price at/near historical low 0.26))

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Indexes Reversal in the making?

Nikkei Index


HangSeng Index


Dow Jones

Sniper in Action

Like a sniper, i have a list of stocks which i'm interested in and waiting patiently for a chance to put on a trade. I decided to stay discipline and would not put on a poor risk/reward trade in this time of volatility. Although I may not post article as frequent as last time, but that is because the market has started drifting on light volume and horse playing along the 2400 mark. I will only buy only when it is near support for now. Remember, if you spot a bottom correctly, it is lucrative!

England Vs Paraguay
I have little information on Paraguay but I like the way England is enjoying football in the warm up matches. I don't see how Paraguay can avoid a defeat in the opening game. More updates on the World Cup to come. Since market is boring, we can chat about soccer too! :D

Germany Vs Costa Rica
This is a particular new German team to me, i'm still stuck with old names. Haven't seen them play before. Lai lai tell me what you think about Germany?

Bulls Vs Bears; Who will win?

A very tight contest today and we manage to stay afloat but still short of the 200MA. It was inline with my anticipation that we will have another final dip to break under 200MA and then hugging it like a lover. The bullish sign would be to see STI index going back up 200MA and never come down again. That to me will be identical to May'04 and Oct'05. Back in May'04, China stocks were battered down too. That was when I lost quite a fair bit of money. Can you imagine I was trading with say 10% of what I know today back then? Fully deserve to lose for I pay little attention to the kind advise of fellow forumers to start slow. I was too greedy for instant success. I mean who isn't? Everyone who trades the market for the first time expects to get rich quick! It is after losses and gaining more experience, one will learn that the more impatient you get in the market, the more you will lose.

Another thing I learnt is, this is the time to pick up leading stocks! Instead of picking up stocks that has corrected the most or looks pretty cheap, I will be picking up leading stocks. Look at who recovers the fastest in Oct'05. The most gains are usually those with fantastic results. Many fanciful penny shares will flaunt at me but I shall be disciplined and look out for value for it is proven time and again that these are where the big money will invest in as well.

Following the market over the last few weeks, memories of Oct'05 came floating back. Today was a classic reminiscences of that day where I tried to play rebound. The market on that day gapped up and I tried to be smart and chased after Cosco. Of course when a stock gapped up, I bought at the high. Without saying, Cosco came back down and I had to cut loss. That lesson taught me never to trade until the direction is clear. Being a small retail player, the 2 bids 3 bids profit margin is never worth the risk for me. Hence today, when I saw the gap ups, I tell myself not to touch for I remembered the pain. The pattern was, both were uncertainty times in the market and I have to be realistic, even with gap up, the odds of follow through bullish phase will simply not happen. After such a sharp decline, buying high is not exactly what most people will do. Worse still, the resistance is so close by that it makes little risk/reward sense.

I am currently pouring over all the resources trying to learn the characteristics of a bottom. I am seeing plenty of potential bottoms after my scans but recently the market has a knack of breaking support after support. Art Shalt wait.