Merry Christmas!

Gosh! Time really flies and this is the 3rd Christmas greeting coming from GrowMoney Author. : ) Journey thus far has been very fulfilling and i have so much fond memories but as per usual, i will leave the reflection on my trading career on the last day of the year. haha

24th will see our minimum bid size changed. I wonder how this will affect the index movement... Friday was a good good day... regionally most index charts finished with a hammer pattern. It will be wonderful if we can close a white candle on the weekly for the coming week. After the clean clean flush on Monday, we never looked back and the rebound was completed by Friday. S shares roamed the top volume charts. This reminded me of the QDII fund...some say it will start in Jan...

My game plan going forward is still to track HSI, plus my system has picked up a stock few stocks.

GrowMoney QuickPicks
IndoAgri
Noble

I will be looking out for a quiet 24th and market to trade flat.. that to me will be an excellent chance to load light into the holidays. With so many writedowns by the banks and the government with foreign investors happy to provide liquidity to the credit crunch, the market may not die yet. Especially when bad news after bad news keep coming into the market and Dow Jones stood firm.. I like that.

Finally, Merry Christmas to all! and May all of us have a Bountiful Year End rally!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

STI dips under 200MA

"The bulls have their fun above the 200Ma and the bears have theirs under it" This is a popular notion at Wall Street. STI today officially trades under the 200MA. Going forward, it may retest the 200MA line, and if we are unable to trade and close above it. Better have a CFD account on hand and let us start to use 4G1R system to profit from the downside. As mentioned, this trend trading system picked up short sell signals last Wednesday night infrom of 180 participants at SGX... not exactly a beautiful sight but at least it reminded us that we can profit from the downside too. If you are interested, you may want to join me and the rest of the ChartNexus team at Capital Tower to find out what exactly happened on 12th Dec 2007... what 4G1R are we talking about... full details are at www.chartnexus.com/events

I went long HSI on Friday. HSI closed on my trendline support and I reckoned it was a pretty opportunity. Yeah, you can imagine my disgust when HSI tanks 1000 points by lunch! haha It is never easy to take a loss. Before you hit the sell button, u will have hallucination of a rebound when you sell... you will feel the pain when you realise your loss.... haha well well, i knew it only too well... all these are nonsenical reasons to hang on when I am wrong. Promptly I cut the position. I had a plan which entails what I wanted to do when things go wrong when i put up the position. If I am right about the trade, HSI should have rebounded back into 28000s.... for it to break the support means more selling may come and the next support i'm eyeing is at 25,800s thereabts. Why should I ride my losses down to 25,800s? Should I then hang on to the losing position and hope for a rebound? Well guess what? Even if there may be a rebound, HSI may head lower first and then rebound...rebound to where i could have sold... so in the end, it's LPPL. Wrong means wrong, cut my position and re-analyse.

It's interesting... very intresting... with the astrology date coming soon and we are heading down... coincidently, next week is last trading week of the year.... why does it sound like a plot?? We go down first until the bradley turn date and then trade higher due to window dressing??? hahaha

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Major support levels tested again

At the seminar last night, we screened the market for signals.... 49 vs 1..... that is 49 sell signals vs 1 buy signal... so i was not surprised when market didn't head up today... but certainly i didn't expect it to be so bad!!! Nikkei started the rout during our lunch time. So when we came back from lunch, it was point of no return.

It was no surprise when the market came crashing down today. Last 2 weeks saw limited buy signals and what we got were sell signals. Most major indices were ripe for a pull back. Ironically, this sharp pull back maybe better than dying a slow death. It will flush out plenty of stale holders giving us fresh buyers when the bullish time returns. I still don't like the loose price actions in most stocks. A bull market doesn't react this way. Furthermore, it was very obvious that most of the stocks encountered heavy dumping on the way up. ChinaFish was one such example, i was tempted to buy at 1.83, but i didn't find the volume convincing and my opinion was the indices may pull back first. However Fish then went on to new high at 2.00 leaving me breathless and frustrated. If not for my colleagues beside me, only by using vulgarities would i be appeased. hahaha! Joking la, been in the market for quite sometime... situations like this already internalised. I make use of this incident to form yet another opinion. Because Fish was sold down to close at the low instead of the high, I knew a bullish market doesn't behave like this.

Now what? After this sharp pull back, I would be looking to see support levels holding... mixed market. Going up? I think the incentive to head up is still missing. 22 Dec 2007, Bradley turn date... going by astrology analysis, market major turning date.... let us watch how we trade before that date... 22nd.. hmm... next Saturday.. nan dao next week take position???

Another thing I want to share is the importance of managing our risk. If i had not taken my profits off the table quicker in this uncertain market, i would have been badly exposed. I think this is not the time to use trend trading system. Preferably swing trading.

Neither did I go short the market. This is because, with year end coming, there could be window dressing. Maybe after the dressing then short? Furthermore, this pull back is what i have been anticipating. Now my opinion is:

a) STI supported at gap. 3442 to 3397 thereabouts. If this level holds, i will tikam small. Basis? Higher low.....

b) DJ support at 13,200s level hold... then i shall long some call options.

c) My favourite Hang Seng... 27,400s should hold.

If you are one of the participant at this weekend's ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course, be assured that we will be sharing alot about price movement. So that you will know how to protect your positions or even make your own forecast! Remember, MAKE GOOD USE of the 2 full days to ask those burning questions!!!

For XPertTrader users, good news! Joseph has kick started the hand-holding session finally! This comes after the big demand from you. So those who are really keen to make good use of your investment in XPertTrader, remember to register your seat at http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1126

US Economy numbers coming up!
Dec. 14
CPI
Industrial Production

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

SPH near 2 year high

Another bank fell under the subprime gong tao... This time round Temasek got vested. I saw Dr Tony Tan sitting at the press conference...it got me excited for a while because I thought SPH was the one whom injected the funds...keke needless to say as a die hard fan of SPH, it will be good news... but alas.. not to be. Speaking of SPH, it is now trading near it's 2 year high!!! $5 ? Akan datang. If Livermore is alive, he will be looking at this for sure. I shall look for CWs in anticipation keke... this is what I call pivotal point. Break, long, gostan we can go short. Definitely worth investigation.

Using XPertTrader to screen, there are still no buy signals and at least 48 sell signals. This is where market condition takes precedence. We are now waiting for FOMC meeting and that leaves little incentive for market to move up. Tomorrow will offer great opportunity! I be watching Nikkei and HSI's closing to get into position. It has shown in the past, market seems to know the news even before it happens.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Pull backs

China central bank raises bank reserve ratio by 1 percentage point - UPDATE
December 08, 2007: 04:39 AM EST

Now I know why the sudden dip in HSI on Friday. As usual, price always move before news. This is so classic. On the chart, HSI failed right at resistance. After the holidays I am looking for trades. This should be my own greed and gambling addiction. I feel so uncomfortable not having any vested interest in the market. I looked at stocks, but to me it seems like not a good time to get vested in stocks as of now. I screened and my system yielded no stocks. Remembering what Jesse Livermore said, "There is a time to buy, a time to sell and also a time to stand aside." By focussing on HSI, I want to be able to form an opinion on it's direction to trade. HSI should be supported at 27,500 thereabts. Even Dow Jones look rip for a pull back first. Same for STI. Recalling what I read about astrology analysis, 22nd Dec has a major turn date. It will be useful to track the movement up to that date. So long we don't pull to a lower low, i'm still optimistic.

Over at Singapore side, there are a couple of stocks look to be forming the classic short term price pattern. Monday should be another mixed day since Tuesday is the FOMC meeting.

By the way, I will be speaking at SGX Auditorium on Wednesday titled Trading Strategies Explained. This short seminar will introduce my style of interpreting MacD Histogram and find entries from uptrending stock or short sell in downtrending stock. What's more, we can use XPertTrader to automatically screen for the signals effortlessly. Saving precious evening time.

Full event details can be found at http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1175

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Mixed day

I cut my synear and lost brokerage today when it reverses all the way to my buy price with volume more than I would like to see. The big gap up in the morning didn't sustain and it fell back with heavy selling. This stock is bought in tantem to the rotational interest i detected for quickie and hence it is off the low and far from support. I feel safer to get out and relook. Especially I am still waiting for market to show me the direction then only would i take sensible risk.

Using my sentiment scan, actually we had a mixed day rather than a bad day despite some heavy profit taking going on as i can see there are stocks which hold their ground and their gains. However since STI has been up the last few sessions, maybe time is ripe for a pull back. I will observe how is the selling on the pull back... this should differentiate between healthy retracement versus bear reversal

For HSI, my eyes will be at the 29,600 to 29,200 levels, it is crucial to see how it trades there.

At the economic front, more bad news than good. The only reason propping up the market could be rate cut as Bank of England already cut rate. Hence after next Tuesday? If it's factored in, then......

Also on my 4g1r trading system, Semb Marine & UOB has a sell signal caught my eyes.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Convincing rally alas

I was told today's rally was the most convincing with volume and strong buying over the last 2 weeks. With 2 trading days left in the week, I will be observing the following:



a) No heavy dumping at the top

b) We see follow through buying

c) Normal retracement due to profit taking



I picked up Synear in a nick of time when the China shares were in play. Nikkei's after lunch U-turn made lunch hour very exciting and when SSE was up 2%, our market rallied after lunch. This despite a report saying funds are pulling out from local bourse in the morning and we reacted negatively to it. However we soon recovered by lunch time.



Looking at my portfolio, i had kept Jiutian & Chinawheel before I head for holidays. My strategy for these 2 stocks is to hold



DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Strategies on Banking sector

MAS said profitability of local banks will be affected by subprime issues. My opinion is, if market is to go anywhere, banks should show the way? If they are resilient and head upwards, i think it will be safe to tikam on the upside slowly at first to reduce risk and add on when proven right. Otherwise if they fail at support turns resistance, put warrants will be handy. Here are few strategies on warrants i have devised.

1. Buy very OTM PW with at least 60 days to expiry - will lose little if stock trades upwards. The trick is, when a stock is moving down, it will be faster than going up.
2. Buy slightly OTM PW with at least 60 days to expiry - will lose time value if underlying trades sideway.
3. Buy OTM PW with less than 30 days to expiry - will lose premium if underlying goes up

Notice I focus on the risk first instead of thinking abt the rewards? Alexander Elder said, "If you take care of your losses, your profits will take care of themselves"

I uploaded a cartoon made for my wedding night for your viewing pleasure incase you are bored with the intra day market.. keke

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Firstly...identify market direction

In all my seminars, courses and even the newspaper interview done this year, i always stressed the need to first determine the market direction. The NUMBER 1 reason for most who lost money in the stock market is we don't know where the market is heading. This was why i failed in my early days. Think about it, if the market direction is heading up, shouldn't majority of the shares be heading up? If the market direction is coming down, didn't most of the stocks keep coming down? Hence I believe inorder to avoid unneccessary losses in the market, one should first form an opinion on the general market direction instead of focussing which stock to trade.


After standing aside the market for 30 days exactly to prepare for my wedding cum honeymoon, i lost the feel for market. This is the first time I have taken such a long leave from trading ever since I started persuing this life skills years ago. It was tough in the beginning as I fell sick due to trading withdrawal syndrome and this was 1 week before my wedding actual day. Forcefully I took my eyes off any financial news...it feels just like quiting smoking where temptations linger everywhere. I treat this as a test of my discipline. Psychologically I won. Really, learning trading has changed me so much as a person. Sometimes my ex-gf and even my sister complained that I am cold blooded and function like a robot. I don't know if you feel the same? For example, I no longer get into senseless argument where one must win for no good reason. I also don't convince people to do things my way for I understand this is how the universe works. Everyone is unique and does things differently. This is also how the stock market functions. There is no way 100% of the market participants will arrive on one single opinion collectively. That is why I often nodded or smile even if i don't agree with what I heard. I mean there is no need to impress upon others my opinion. It's just like we shouldn't argue with market direction! This bring us to the next point, I learnt to take failure in my stride and admitting to making any mistake. In life how many of us really likes to admit to mistakes? Most of the time, we will find circumstances as an excuse. That is why cutting loss when wrong is most difficult for most. And finally, my all time famous quote i read somewhere... "people tends to act out the way they are in the market and this is often leads to disasterous results"



Perhaps I haven't talked to myself for too long... gosh really long winded tonight! haha 1 more thought to share, technical analysis is indeed a life skills just like cycling and swimming... despite being away for sometime, the where to start, what to do just flow automatically when i analysed the charts. By the way, during the trip to Italy, i met Leonardo Da Vinci (Statue) and learnt alot about this man... hence I probably enhanced my fibonacci skills... wahahaha


With 2 seminars coming up, I need to get back my tempo and without saying of course market direction comes first! I won't be too anxious to hook up any stock position as yet. It's my style to always form an opinion then trade it.

My next stint is scheduled on 12th Dec.... titled trading strategies...interested party... u know where to register ...... www.chartnexus.com/events







DJ: I be watching for 2 situations:

a) We form a higher low and then breaks the red line.

b) We breaks the support where it is shown by the 2 arrows.



HSI: I am looking for the blue line to be supportive or the gap up.





DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

执子之手，与子偕老

With my wedding and honey moon coming up, it's time to take a break from the market. I wish everyone tua tua huat and may the market leave some money for me when I am back in December.... Huat arh! keke

P.S I have taken my profit off YZJ inorder to cut down on my exposure. I shall sit through with the rest of the stocks that I owned unless the market really forces me to run clean clean.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Abnormal Market Behaviour

I do not like the way how market is behaving lately. Firstly, the recovery from the August low was too fast. Secondly, I observed that the price swing has been very wide and loose on the way up. This could be signs that the smart money are getting out. At the top, there shouldn't be alot of selling (volume) because there are limited over hang shareholders. The only explanation for the high volume is, smart money liquidating. Thirdly, the incredible run at HSI. Murphy law applies in the market too.

Inorder to cut down risk, i sold HongXin when the selling persist. I had wanted to ride this on the way up but the price actions has been too loose and i didn't like the wild swing. If everything is fine, i will look to buy back again.

I derive 2 opinions about the market.
1) Market trades in a range and we see major support levels hold.
2) Market breaks the major support levels and we crash south creating a lower low in price actions.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
SPC (Bull)
Ezra (Bull)
UOB (Bear)
SMB (Bear)

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Focus on market not on paper gains/losses

A quick tip about controlling your psychology in trading is never to focus on the paper profits/losses. By now, this golden rule has been internalised. 4 weeks ago, I began to have doubts about my opinion on China shares when my growth fund is having measley returns. The paper profits did not bother me. I was focussed on the general movement of china Shares and the market as a whole. Even as of now, with Hongxin rocketing off the base, I am still feeling indifferent than when I did not make any money. Alexander Elder said, "Take care of your losses and your profits will take care of themselves". What this guru meant was to cut your losses small and ride your profits long. When Genting, Adv Hldg, Ausgrp are not moving the way I anticipated, I was quick to take whatever nett profit I had from them because technically, I was either wrong or early in buying them. When I am right in my trade, I will not be eager to take profit off the table so soon prefering to ride them as far as I can. The ability to ride the profits doesn't mean ignoring risk. Instead, it meant to know what are the risks and how to manage them inorder to ride the trend. To understand the risk, I derive this important information from Technical Analysis. If you haven't notice by now, price always precedes news. Those who are skeptical about Technical Analysis, you only need to look at Labroy Marine today. Is the news really that surprising? Well at least not to the technical traders for we already see something brewing from the charts.

Just another reminder, the last ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course will be held on the 15th & 16th of December 2007. With more than 1 month away, seats are selling fast. If you have always been interested to learn the art of trading, do not miss this last course of the year because, come 2008, the course fees will be adjusted due to the increased in hotel rates.

XPertTrader Screening Result
SSH (GrowMoney Trading System)
LianBeng (GrowMoney Trading System)
Biosensor (Bollinger Breakout)

P.S Running out of trading ideas? Are you confused over what to buy? With XPertTrader, trading opportunities never run dry. Get yours today! www.chartnexus.com

GrowMoney Growth Fund
HLH
Jasper
LC Dev
YangZhiJiang
Jiutian
ChinaHong
ChinaWheel

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Red Army tries again

I sold my ausgrp at 1.81 (bought 1.81 4 weeks ago). During the 4 weeks, Ausgrp went as high as 1.92 yet i didn't sell for profit. It also went as low as 1.74. My trading system is trend following and I tend to sit on a trend. It became obvious to me that i am early in the trade. Also the recent movement of the market is, good news and bad news doesn't move the market. In 2005, we plunge after trading sideways. In 2006, we traded sideways and then surprise everyone in November by going on a strong bull run that leads us to 3k.

I respect risk. Although I still have a portfolio of stocks, i must agree readily that we are behaving like in a market top. The inevitable can happen. But, we will not know when. The only thing we can do is to manage our risk. When it happens, just remember to run away. The plunge from market top can take a few months to happen, so there is still upside to make from. This is why i will not just sell everything and wait for the crash to happen. Who am i to decide if market should plunge. The best thing to do is to form an opinion of what are the signs and take care of the risk.

Tonight i have more than 36 stocks in my XPertTrader screening. There should be a broadbase rally tomorrow. Best time to add should be during intra day weakness .

As November will be a busy month for me, there is only 1 Technical Analysis course. The last one for the year will be on 15th Dec. This course is computer based and many feel that it is very good to have the laptop for practise versus pencil and ruler with old charts. This is the last time the course is offered at the special price. Next year onwards, it will be charged at the usual rate. This is because hotel rates are increasing.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Is it really that bad?

Yes, the index does closed very ugly and that accross the board, bloodshed. However using my screening, i searched and found that despite the big sell off, we didn't go down further. Although this does not guarantee we don't go down further from here but I am able to produce 2 opinions:

a) in recent weeks, there wasn't any sucker rally and that mostly shares did not close up higher and i could feel a lack of participation from the retail side. Hence there will not be alot of panic selling.

b) DJ is near support at 13,400... it will be nice to see this level holding. Furthermore, alot of stocks are trading at their major support levels. If all these levels start to crack, my CFD account is ready.

I just concluded my course over the weekend and remembered something valuable which I have forgotten. As I introduced alot of strategies and techniques in the course, by the second day, I could usually see the "information overload" syndrome in the room. One participant asked, "So many things how to apply all" ..... then it struck me! Technical Analysis shouldn't be difficult. It should be fun and easy to apply. Hence my reply was, pick up 1 or 2 of the strategy learned and then slowly add on as you get comfortable. This way, it will be more effective and you can still have loads of fun. For the benefits of newcomers to trading, I urge you to learn price movement and identifying support and resistance first before even looking at indicators. Indicators can fail and WILL fail, it is the understanding of support and resistance with price movement which will limit your risk and LOSS!

As the market corrected today, for the brave ones, you might be wondering which stock to pick up if you believe this is the lowest market will go. Tonight, I made use of XPertTrader Fibonnaci rule to screen out stocks that had closed near the Fibonacci levels. Hence I can save precious time and focus on analysis rather than charts flipping.

XPertTrader Screening Results
No. Stock Name Triggerred Date Triggerred Rules
1 Allgreen 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
2 Biosensors 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
3 China Hong 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
4 ChinaAngel 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
5 ChinaAOil 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
6 ChinaPDye 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
7 CITYDEV 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
8 FerroChina 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
9 FORELAND FABRICTECH HLDS LTD 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
10 Full Apex 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
11 HG Metal 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
12 HL Asia 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
13 Oculus 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
14 Olam 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
15 Pac Andes 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
16 Penguin 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
17 Rotary 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
18 SeeHS 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
19 Sing Tel 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
20 SingHldg 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
21 Sky Petrol 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
22 StamfordLd 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
23 STX PO 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
24 Ultro 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 38.2% ))
25 AdvaHldg 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
26 AnnAik 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
27 Ascott 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
28 Asia Env 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
29 AsiaPharm 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
30 C&G Industrial Holdings 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
31 China Sky 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
32 CHINA SPORTS INTL LIMITED 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
33 China XLX 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
34 Dutech 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
35 FUJIAN ZHENYUN PLAS IND CO LTD 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
36 Hongguo 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
37 Jiutian 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
38 Manhattan Res 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
39 MapletreeLog 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
40 MiddleEastD 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
41 Ouhua 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
42 Parkway 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
43 SingPost 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
44 StarHub 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
45 Superbowl 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
46 Tai Sin 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
47 Wing Tai 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
48 Yanlord 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 50.0% ))
49 AllcoReit 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
50 BakerTech 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
51 BeautyChina 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
52 China Sun 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
53 ChipEngS 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
54 Contel 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
55 ETLA LIMITED 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
56 HLN Tech 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
57 Ho Bee 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
58 Hongwei 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
59 JK Tech 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
60 KingWan 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
61 Midas 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))
62 TianjinZUS$ 22 Oct 2007 ((Fibonacci retracement around 61.8% ))


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Treacherous Market

Broad market showed weakness after lunch and many finishes off their highs. Now this trading pattern is very different from how we traded from 2006 through to 2007. Infact the last 3 weeks, market seems to be hitting invisible wall but yet unable to plunge. Screening through the market, there are still some individual stocks who showed strength. A quick check on STI saw that the RSI and 20SMA is supported and just yesterday we rebounded from that level. However there is a slight negative divergence on the weekly chart. So long daily chart holds, this divergence should be able to negate. Although market was down today... 2 of my stocks rallied. So long my stocks stayed up, market can swing all it wants! :D haha

Something about JiutTian, they are going to issue the warrants with strike price at 80cts. With current market price trading at low 60s, this warrant will only have time value with almost no premium since it's so far out of the money. I personally think the risk/reward favours. Well it all depends how much does the warrants trade. Furthermore, it looks to me a chart base is forming. My favourite characteristics are there.

Tonight, I'm going to share with you my own set of XPertTrader screening rules. These are the stocks i will study in more details tonight.
GrowMoney Quickpicks
1 AdvSCT 18 Oct 2007
2 China Hong 18 Oct 2007
3 Datapulse 18 Oct 2007
4 Epure 18 Oct 2007
5 Fung Choi 18 Oct 2007
6 Pan Hong 18 Oct 2007
7 SembMar 18 Oct 2007
8 SunVic 18 Oct 2007
9 Superbowl 18 Oct 2007
10 Tat Hong 18 Oct 2007
11 TianjinZUS$ 18 Oct 2007
12 UOB-KayH 18 Oct 2007

Get your own weapon in the market today! Feel the power of empowerment! Get XPertTrader today!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Reading multiple time frame

Let me start tonight's blog by sharing one of my methodology of Technical Analysis: Analysing multiple time frame.


SeeHS on the weekly chart, a classic rising wedge has formed. Why classic? Because the volume is declining just like a textbook rising wedge. My own interpretation of RSI current shows that the weekly price chart is under selling pressure. If price close near the lows on the weekly chart, my CFD is ready... keke Today I was abit more hardworking and walked over to finally get the account ready after months of talking about it. What I don't like is the cost of finance which stands at 4%...


The daily chart of SeeHS paints a totally different picture. Oscillators showing oversold, bullish engulfing pattern is formed based on last trading day and of course, I was attracted to this stock because of my daily XPertTrader screening rule, MacDHistogram signal. Looks like coming days we may see higher price for SeeHS.

No follow through in selling! Hurray! For a moment, I thought market is going to teach me a lesson for being too opinionated. I noticed many stocks finish the day closing away from the lows. Tonight, I am interested to know all the stocks that behave this way. How am I going to do that? : ) Using XPertTrader, I screened and found 35 nice hammers. Just by a click of a button! It cannot get more simpler than this. Tonight I shall share this list with you.

ChartNexus XPertTrader Screening Results:
No. Stock Name Triggerred Date Triggerred Rules
1 AdvSCT 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
2 Ascendasreit 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
3 Asia Env 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
4 BakerTech 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
5 CapitaComm 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
6 Celestial 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
7 ChinaAOil 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
8 ChinaFish 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
9 ChinaKangda 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
10 ChinaMilk 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
11 CITYDEV 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
12 CourageMa 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
13 DBS 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
14 Ellipsiz 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
15 Enzer 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
16 GuangzhaoIFB 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
17 HG Metal 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
18 Hiap Seng 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
19 Jade 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
20 KS Energy 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
21 LC Dev 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
22 Lian Beng 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
23 Man Wah 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
24 OKP 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
25 OrchardP 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
26 Ouhua 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
27 Parkway 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
28 Pine Agritech 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
29 RafflesEdu 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
30 SembCorp 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
31 SingHldg 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
32 Sinwa 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
33 SPH 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
34 SuntecReit 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))
35 Synear 17 Oct 2007 ((Hammer))

XPertTrader is not just a software... it is a lifestyle choice... with it, you are spoilt for choices of what you can do. It saves time and makes analysis fast, simple and efficient. Our job as a trader is to analyse charts and identify the next opportunity. It's your choice if you want to run or walk in trading. I have chosen to saves precious time. 3 easy steps each night..... Start XPertTrader, click Stock Screener, click Start Screening. The next golden opportunity is just a click away!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Red Army Perished?

Massive selling! Looks like I may be wrong about china plays as they were sold down in tantem today. Contra players and weak holders should already be shaken out last two weeks. Today's selling may be the final washout. I am observing we are near oversold levels and yet at the same time many of the China stocks are still seeing strength, trading at overbought levels. Key support levels are still holding. I think I had been reminded many time through my XPertTrader screening, there are hardly any quality stocks that I see leading the rally. Anyway, with 19th Oct the dreaded anniversary drawing near, I will be careful incase the market really celebrate it by selling down. Also, 17th Oct is a bradley turn date. Now that we have been sold down, perhaps we turn up instead of down? :P Tonight must check with Zhuge Liang who is master for astrology analysis.



All is not lost for Xiao Hong. Trading at a level which is attractive to pick up. The above chart shows how resistance may become a support. This line has supported the price once. Today it did again refusing the price to close underneath it. This technique is part of the many strategies taught in ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course, you may find more details at >>> http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1138 . This course has been hugely successful and the time limited introductory price is very attractive which comes with 3 months free of XPertTrader. I urge you to take advantage of this package and learn how to take care of your money in the market today!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

QDII Fun no more

My opinion of a short term pause in China plays was short lived as we goes into third week of wilderness. They were trading in a tight range without going higher or significantly lower. Their counterparts in HK and Shanghai were so much better. My opinion remains for now that the play will rotate back into China plays unless PRC government make some unfriendly comments about QDII fund. I was never convinced that China's interest rate hike will affect the price. This is because it is widely anticipated and should have been priced in. The current frenzy in Hang Seng and China reminded one and all about how Nikkei rallied to 30k in the 80s and they too were in self denial when warned about the bubble. They said, "This time its different". From a high of 30k, it then went as low as 8k after the bubble burst. The same is said of China this time round. I heard many people said the 4 dreaded words...."This time its different" Olympics, China market cannot margin, cannot contra... With so many warning signs around, markets at all time highs, indeed we ought to be more prudent. My strategy for now will be to observe my buy signals that comes along and I want to see quality stocks moving versus the wild random price spike now.

Growmoney quickpicks
Allgreen
BerlianLaju
F&N
Federal
Full Apex
Netelusion

GrowMoney Growth Fund
HLH
Jasper
LC Dev
Ausgrp
YangZhiJiang
Jiutian
ChinaHong
ChinaWheel

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Right Time, Right Place

Like I always advocate in my course, keep things simple. The truth is, the simplest Technical Analysis will work. In the example above, when Hiap Seng was being sold down, it caught everyone by surprise. It was the only oil gas company that was being sold when we see a broad market rally. Armed with just an oscillator (RSI) and classical T.A, I found a "growmoney line". This is nothing more than a trendline which i drew. keke In 2006, I give all time high a name, blueline...so here we go, another new name! :D haha My perceived support was about 80 cts, and I found 200 SMA trading nearby, fibonacci 61.8% was near too and last of all, my growmoney line. Even a gap support is nearby. I drew a conclusion that this must be a very strong support. There is no guarantee that I will be right that this stock will hold at my perceived support. Fear about it going down after buying? What if it goes up and I don't have a position? All I need to do is to put in a position size that is subjected to my money management rule. The GOLDEN RULE is, when i am wrong, i lose small, but when i am right, i win big big. Dare to pull the trigger! The longer i am in the game, the less feels i have for wins and losses. I was trained to focus on the craft and not the money. The old saying goes like this, "You get good at what you are doing, money will take care of itself".

I anticipate red chips play to be back this week. Most of them are forming flags or what we call short term price patterns. This week i will be pretty tied up at work, 1 workshop and a seminar at SGX happening. Hopefully I don't miss the breakouts!!!

There are so many stocks listed in the market, why Hiap Seng??? I am no superman. I just had a great companion in XPertTrader. I ran one of my rule to screen for stocks trading near Moving Averages for support. Hiap Seng came up. : )

Free online tutorial about Trading Moving Average can be found here >>> http://www.chartnexus.com/support/tutorials/xperttrader/CaseStudy_MA.php

I saw a couple of request for the mandarin version of T.A training. I think it is about time, I should help the chinese educated community. Let me see if can slot in a 2 hrs introductory special in December and close this amazing year at a high!

GrowMoney Growth Fund
HLH
Jasper
LC Dev
Ausgrp
YangZhiJiang
Jiutian
ChinaHong
ChinaWheel
HiapSeng

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Fair Game?

EI-Nets has a great trading day where it's volume and price shoots through the roof. SGX queried as per SOP and the company replied in a so standard fashion that is all too common....they are not aware what could have caused this. Remember this stock, according to past experience, weeks later it will be in the open what caused this unusual trading activity. Stock Market a fair game? I doubt so. keke

It was good to see late buying. Although late buying is typically good, it could also be due to shorts covering. Today I picked up one more stock, Hiap Seng. Interestingly it is trading near the 200 DMA while the rest of the oil & gas play are still firm. My view is fundamentally is sound, technically it's ugly. I remember their contracts are up to the brim. Hence I am trading my opinion on this stock. If i'm wrong, I will bite the bullet.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Portfolio makeover

A perfect chance for me to load up more red chips as the market took a pause today. I think it is largely affected by the -700 closing on HSI. HSI have a big gap near 27,200 for support. It could test this. Over the last 2 days, I cashed out of Genting and Adv Hldg to take up ChinaHong and ChinaWheel. Holding on to Genting and Adv Hldg to me was opportunity cost and of course i be badly exposed to market risk should i not reduce some positions before adding. Anyway, pulling the trigger is easy for me because I already had the plan in mind on Monday. When the time comes, i only have to act. The price actions of my china plays must be firm or more upside by Friday.

Do not hesistate to join our seminar at SGX Auditorium where I will be sharing on how to trade effectively with Fibonacci. What's more, look out for ChartNexus special promotion! Register at http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1133

GrowMoney Growth Fund
HLH
Jasper
LC Dev
Ausgrp
YangZhiJiang
Jiutian
ChinaHong
ChinaWheel

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Hail the Red Army !

China funds may flow into Singapore! I really hope our china shares go crazy just like what happens in Hang Seng. The last time the market interest is so strong on China shares is probably in 2006. The other best time was in 2004-2005 season, fwah!! That was when 1 china stock cheong, the rest will follow ! It makes making money looks easy. However this time round, the gains are more spectacular. By the way, the money is not in yet... hahaha Imagine on 15th October, China Govt say, NO! Money will not go out... we shall see how all the gaps will be covered! keke Well... just be more careful and prudent. I would love to see intra week weakness..that will be the greatest chance to load up again.


Today I picked up Jiutian during intra day pull back. I only have 1 China stock in my portfolio and it is simply not good enough! Hence I searched high and low, flipped through many charts... before I selected my trade. A number of observations that i made, on 21st Sept 2007, my trading system using XPertTrader picked up JiutTian, it broke it's all time high...blue line theory... those from my technical analysis course, check out my trading protocols in the first section of the course notes. And finally, we know most of the china stocks will go up the charts, however some will crawl some will fly... hence i had to choose the one that fits best into my stock selection process.



C2O Hldings, 1 of the stock that was discussed in the 2 day ChartNexus Technical Analysis course. Wooo la la, the kind of base characteristic we like.... pennant formation which fits into the time essence very well. Classic chart to trade on.


By the way, don't miss the next Technical Analysis Course scheduled on 20th Oct. Limited seats left! Huat arh! Come, come learn the art of interpreting the charts to forecast the future!


Enough of Red Army.... amidst the chaotic red army rally, construction and oil gas sector quietly joined in the fun as well! It will be wonderful if they continue to move up tomorrow!


GrowMoney Growth Fund
HLH
Jasper
LC Dev
Adv Hldg
Ausgrp
Genting
YangZhiJiang
Jiutian

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

守得云开，见明月

Just as the title of tonight article suggest, patience was rewarded sweetly. After being frustrated by the market for no less than 3 weeks. The rotational interest went to the mid caps and also oil & gas sector. This round, I managed my emotions very well. Instead of acting out my emotions in the market, I fired away on the keyboard on Monday night. Managing one's emotions is very important in trading. I never forget, other than T.A, money mgmt and psychology are the pieces to the jig saw puzzle. I would have made the same mistake of the yester years should i have sold just because the stock doesn't move. All the expensive lessons of the past has served me well.

I went on a shopping spree today and bought Genting alongside YangZhiJiang. With 5 stocks in my portfolio, i won't be in a hurry to add more. Instead i'll be looking to harvest. Genting's resilience caught my eyes and YangZhiJiang had a chart formation breakout known as inverse H & S.

My Malaysia counterpart Mr Justin Tan will be kick starting a series of Technical Analysis workshops in collaboration with theStarOnline in Kuala Lumpur. If you are trading the Bursa, you can check out the details at www.chartnexus.com/events . For Singapore investors, our next date with you will be at SGX Auditorium, details can be found at http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1133

Screening results from GrowMoney Trading System shows at least 25 stocks. The market looks likely to extend its gains. I be watching any follow through buying.

If you notice i haven't been talking in the shoutbox recently....something is bothering me... why is that a powerful and simple to use software which is affordable to the typical retail investor isn't selling like hot cakes? I am indeed a poor salesman. No matter how I showed that trading system can be easily downloaded from the Library for a quick start, or how easy it is to look for buying or selling opportunities once you have your rules defined in the XPertTrader. Long time ago when I was still using "X" charting software, I had to flip so many charts everynight to determine what to buy sell. Eversince I adopted ChartNexus XPertTrader, things got so much simpler! Everything I wanted to know about the market can be retrieved by click of a "Start Screening" button. Anyway, i will try harder to show how great a companion XPertTrader is.

Quiz of the day, there is one obvious sector that had gone quiet for quite sometime.... time to tikam?

Also if you are interested to learn about short term price pattern trading techniques, i am invited to speak at next month's Smart Investment and International Expo 2007 happening at Suntec City. You know what's the best part? Admission is free!

GrowMoney Growth Fund
HLH
Jasper
LC Dev
Adv Hldg
Ausgrp
Genting
YangZhiJiang

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Frustrations

Over the last few weeks, i revisited one of the most torturing emotion known as frustrations. This feeling stems from being able to get the market direction right and yet the portfolio didn't generate any profits. The worst thing to do when emotion gets the better of me is to trade on impulse. The great Livermore said, when you are trading, it's important to have a stable emotional state and inner peace is very important.

The wrong thing to do is to cut my positions just because they frustrate me. This is because from the charts, the critical supports have not give way. Nothing on the T.A side i had done wrong. I conclude that i was too early in the sectors i bought. Was it too early or am I proven wrong by the market? Also, to miss the banks and properties rally, i have only myself to blame. Yes, no one else, not the market, not the chng kay but myself. Because i was slow to react. I DID NOT pull trigger. I was retarded!

If anything, the way i saw all the bad FA companies rotate to rally, again seems like warning sign. MEdia Ring???? Got sala or not??? then again many breakouts no follow through. A friend reminded me end of Sept liao.... fund may be dressing up until nice nice.

Also, i cannot stand the magnitude of HSI going up north. It's ok to go up but not when it's without me!!!! Again here i was retarded! A strong word but yes. I took too much time in reading the market and didn't pull the trigger.

With a strong Monday, tomorrow and Wednesday i will be looking for weakness followed by firm actions.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Good Finishing

Last Friday's closing is a show of strength as we see broadbased buying. Lian Beng closed significantly higher and many of the construction plays came back roaring. I too observed buying interest across the board. Construction and oil & gas plays has been quiet for nearly 2 weeks after they came out of the rut strongest. Banks and Properties followed after rate cut. Then we saw baltic sensitive stocks STX and NOL rock the charts. Mid and small caps went sleeping. One by one, punters favourite came alive and often times it was shortlived. Banjoo, Jade...C2O, Atlantac... It made me very tempted to hunt for the next probable old flame and punt waiting for chng kay to push up.

I saw many stocks start to turn in my trading system. Good sign. I'm using a trend system and hence if i continue to see those signals coming up and those stocks keep going higher, it only means the market is trending higher. If I see those stocks with signals stop short in a trading range, i will know market is probably not going anywhere soon. I shall then do swing trading and not ride a trendless market.

If you havealways wanted to know about Fibonacci and it's application in trading, do not hesistate to join me at SGX Auditorium as I share with you practical trading experience with Fibonacci. Register at http://www.chartnexus.com/events/details.php?eid=1133 now!

Quiz: What does ChinaTranscom, Sunvic, UnionMet has in common?
Ans: Cessation of substantial shareholder

GrowMoney Growth Fund
HLH
Jasper
LC Dev
Adv Hldg
Ausgrp

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

A glimpse on indices

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Market refuses to head lower

I decided to cut my Federal last Friday after a failed breakout. Today I cut my HSIPW after HSI did not follow through yesterday's selling. After monitoring the price actions for the whole day, it seems to me that it doesn't want to go down. At every dip, there is plenty of buyers. As I am buying the warrants, i cannot forget it is a wasting asset due to the time decay factor. If I had shorted the futures, then I can perfects trade my short position higher, or do a scale up selling.

My plan was to lift either my stocks or puts according to where the market is likely to head, when europe market opened steady, and hsi close firm, i had to lift my puts in favour of a positive reaction by the market tomorrow.

Another reason for lifting my HSIPW is that, I don't want to risk the upside due to a possible interest rate cut. Although I do not think cutting the interest rate can solve the problem, but who am i to go against the market? Rather than holding on to the put warrants and stand against the tide, I believe after this rally, we may risk a possible downside. I don't know how far can this rally goes, but since it's going up, i shall long until the market showed otherwise.

Plenty of banks are giving results this week in US. This is key to understand the impact of subprime or credit crunch.

Next week's Technical Analysis class is sold out once again and October's class is filling up. The current demand for Technical Analysis knowledge is just amazing. This sets me thinking, with more and more retail investors knowing how to avoid risk, can this bull run be more sustainable than we thought?

I will also start to kick start a series of Technical Analysis training videos. As you can see, the first on Fibonacci has been posted. I hope to help in a small way. Every week, i will upload a new training video hence stay tuned! : )

GrowMoney Growth Fund
HLH
Jasper
LC Dev
Adv Hldg

If Ah Ben really cut rate, reits, properties should benefit. Ausgrp was picked up by my Trading system.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

No eyes see

With my stocks not going up, and HSI going against my trade strongly..... I stepped into Federal upon breakout and once again, breakout no follow through....

Under-estimating China Money

I had under-estimated the power of China money as Hang Seng finished new high once again. Seems like the word sell or profit-taking is not in the chinese dictionary. My short position is out of the money. It will be foolish of me to counter the trend. I will look to trade up my short position ahead of Fed's meeting. Also if the market refuse to head lower, I will be looking to add more stocks.

AdvHldg looks to be holding well with volume drying up. LC Dev, i don't like the way it failed at the breakout and once again there is no follow up buying in the sector. Infact this syndrome can be observed accross the market. Some glaring forgotten stocks like unionmet, sunvic, had an incredible run. Also, it seems like the market tone is firming up. I will be watching the next leg down since we are not able to maximise the gap up over the last 2 days. Gaps are very powerful as it marks th strong conviction of the market participants. If 2 successive gap ups unable to propel market higher, i must be prudent.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Construction flexes muscle

After taking a week's break, constuctions rumble again and hitting top volume. I picked up LC Dev after the latter seem to have broke out with volume and price. However it seem to have hit resistance 0.480. I just have to try because i had been tracking this stock for weeks and been waiting to pull trigger. When the signal came, i just have to stick to my discipline. I also added a batch of HSI PW. This is for my structural short position if the market tanks down form here as this is a very attractive level to hold a short. With 2 stocks in my portfolio for now, i'm hedged. If the market proves to be resilient, i shall cut my put warrants and long more. If I am correct on the downside, i shall remove my long positions and look to short more. I believe market has arrived to what we call a pivot point.

Screening the market with XPertTrader, I saw quite a number stocks traded higher with high volume. It seems to me market is rotating through the sectors. Why else would sunvic and unionmet rock the charts? After flipping through many charts, i saw a perfect reason to head down. Many charts are trading near or at the support now turns resistance. If they can break this level successfully, i believe more upside. If they goes lower, that will be used as a reason by technical traders.

Market should be awaiting 18th Sept. I still haven't formed an opinion of what Ben will do and how market may react. Oil price hits record high and subprime still a question mark. Both are good reasons to justify a slowing or to slow down the economy. Perfect reason for market to be sluggish.


Last evening at the Stock Selection with XPertTrader, i almost cried in front of the capacity class. My heart sank when I randomly screened the market with my trading system to show how to use XPertTrader and out came C2O Holding which was alerted on 23rd Aug 2007. Why didn't i see it ? Complacency! After getting no results from the system screening for a few nights, i assumed that many stocks are still in downtrend and that it will be fruitless to do homework and hence skipped for a few nights thinking until I saw strength in the market. Gosh....

Anyway, ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course is filling up fast with 3 weeks to go! Last count, is left only 5 seats. This course doesn't just teach you a system or 1 strategy, it covers a wide spectrum of working technical analysis knowledge that will empower you to trade any market with the knowledge..... be it futures, forex or stocks. The only drawback is, participants must come with laptop as it will be practise focussed and we are practising on lastest charts.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Bracing for the onslaught

Looking at the chart of STI, if we close lower than 3400s, it will be ugly. Technically it means we have some more downside. Many would expect STI to test the last low 2960. Personally, if fibo 38.2% holds at 3300, effectively we still have higher low. And should STI turns up from there, good sign. Anyhow, there is currently no catalyst for STI to be bullish. I favour working out a nice chart base and then we challenge 3700 by November.

All along, i favour another leg down to ascertain the selling pressure and hence I didn't actively load up stocks to avoid risk but only 1 which is Adv Hldg. Tomorrow I will scrutinise the tape closely. I did for a moment feel like a fool watching the market rebound strongly and yet I did not profit much. Greed. Technically, it is risky to load up and hence staying out is my best option. Had I sucummb to greed, tonight i would be a very worried man as i will be badly exposed to the possible downside facing us tomorrow.

Ai zai, recently, i notice STI recently divert from the DJ movement. Should HSI remains firm, we should survive like the 300 brave men from spartans. Higher low higher low! *chant*


While I anticipated the employment data to be poor, my take on the market direction was wrong. I had anticpated due to the poor data, market may like the idea that it can induce Fed to cut interest rate and that we should at least close flat or up. Instead, we went down big time. This will impact Monday's opening for Asia market. While it is expected to fall, my eyes were on the possible support levels to justify an uptrend intact. Also, why would the job data post any surprise to the market? From the subprime fall out, it is already in the known alot of people are losing jobs. Why did market plunge despite knowing such an obvious data? Market taking that as an excuse to sell? Wouldn't this latest data induce Fed to cut rate? What happens if they refuse to cut rate? What happens if they cut. Technically, i saw something unpleasant. 13,300s level turns from support to resistance. 13k must hold, otherwise it will trigger more technical selling.



HSI hits uptrend resistance line and looks ready to pull back with RSI hitting similar resistance. There were 2 gaps and I think the second one closer to 22,400s will likely be a support if any as the gap support confluence with fibo 38.2%.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

STI rumbles!

Analysing Adv Hldg in details as I have vested interest. RSI is near resistance, Possible resistance level is 0.520 and target price of flag pole should be conservatively 0.570

Adv Hlding went higher after breakout the previous day and it has been going up for 2 days straight. Hence I ought to be prudent and will be looking to sell upon weakness for a successful swing trade. What makes this win sweeter is that it is screened using XPertTrader. I am going to upload this rule into our XPertTrader library so that subscribers can enjoy using the rule. Maybe next week at the workshop, i will demonstrate.

For those interested to join ChartNexus Technical Analysis Course, you will be given 3 months free of XPertTrader subscriptions worth $105.

XPertTrader Screening for Short term Price pattern:
Armstrong
Tiongwoon
SunningTech
SMB United
Occulus
Yongnam
LC Dev
Lum chang

I'm still observing for breakouts in the stocks above. Tomorrow is Friday and it will be a fantastic time to fish if the weather is fine. On the weekly chart, am seeing almost 59 stocks turning around on their weekly chart.... no buy very sayang.... so i may pick up one more.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Technical Glitch on STI

Many thanks to Minwen and Zhi Yang from mypaper.sg (hope i get the name right as my mandarin is only half past six) for featuring my humble blog in the papers. The mandarin in the passage was like wow! so many idioms ah.. keke somehow intensify a simple interview.. wah journalist jiu si journalist... the pen bery powerderful! :D And Zhi Yang, snap snap away at shenton way with many passerbys giving me the wierd look! haha I thought i will never have to do this after my bridal shoot, i was wrong! :D
It was certainly a pleasant surprise for my folks. Thanks for making their day a happy one. : )

Early in the trading day, there was a technical glitch on STI. Simsci open gap up and my put warrants from the day before looks set to be BBQ'ed. However due to the glitch, STI did not track simsci and it gave me time to get out of my put warrants with a 2 bids loss. Lucky escape! However, as i always avoid risk, the warrants i bought has got a slower delta and hence it won't move very fast against me. My choice of warrants has always been if i'm wrong, it should move slowly against me, when i'm right, it should move faster in my favour.


STI: Upward Fibo resistance 61.8% compromised. However the volume on the way up is classic warning sign. However, i will only be wary and not take any actions as too many times, volume can just pick up suddenly on the upside. 3407 thereabts should be good support if uptrend would to be engineered. Ultimately, i see a possible ex-support now will become a potent resistance. For the good of everyone, let us hope we "soon soon" break through it and welcome back the bulls.

Today I picked up Adv Hldg after a chart base breakout. Although my view was that the subprime thingy is something serious and that it can cripple the finance system. However, as Jesse Livermore puts it, "Opinions are often wrong and Market is always right" I am not going to argue with what is happening. Since market doesn't want to go down, what good does it do for me to be sidelined, stubbornly sticking to my views and refuse to trade? I tried to short the index over the last few weeks and although i made on all 3 occassions, it was a hint to me market wants to trend higher. This is because, the levels i shorted are near pivoting points where index should plunge. Instead, index showed resilience and I have to go for quick profits instead of pocketing a big profits. Furthermore, together with participants from my course, we deciphered what could happen this week on Sunday. Anyway, I'm comfortable doing swing trades until i see a couple of nice uptrending stocks for me to ride on.

XPertTrader Screening for Short term Price pattern:
Armstrong
Tiongwoon
StraitsAsia
Occulus
Yongnam
LC Dev
Lum chang

From my nightly volume screening... alot of shipping companies hog the list... think think think.. after shipping what should move??? So far red army not moving??? where are the old china favourites? Will they cheong?

Something interesting!!! Capitaland appeared in my growmoney trading system screening. The natural thing I want to observe over the next few days is more property stocks coming onto my XPertTrader results. If that happens, my anticipation is not only will property counters move, STI will not go down too.

DJ is trading at -150 at the point of my entry, i have no fear as yet as it is only normal for it to pull back and corrects. Mid week corrections can make way for a good Friday closing.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

30k to 40k per month?

Just to set the record right, I am not making 30k to 40k per month! haha It was an estimation based on my stock picks by the press.

I never like to tempt people into trading promising big profits. It is certainly not easy. Rather for anyone who wishes to join this game, understand the RISK and learn how to manage risk before we even think about big profits. Thinking about profits all the time will weaken your psychology against market swings which are normal and happen plenty of times. This is one reason why many people took a loss and then only to watch the market rebound on them.

Trust me, when you are able to decipher the market, money will flow naturally. Focus on deciphering the market.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Early Stage of Recovery?

The market showed a glaring no follow through in buying where most of the stock went under profit taking. A slew of economic data are due from the US. Bush and Ben assurance about economy and credit crunch did not have any impact outside US as all other regions succumb to weaker closing. Nothing bearish as yet as there were no massive selldown not including Midas.

If we are at the early stage of recovery, sector by sector, interest will rotate in. It will not be good to see one sector after another showing "stalling" actions. Which means massive volume yet prices refuse to close higher. However i don't rule out one more leg down. This is because the current psychological state of market participants should be nervy and quick to profit. So long price doesn't move up further, common thinking is to sell first. Hence it is important for me to track the 4 sectors as mentioned yesterday for any clues of market direction. Since tomorrow is already Wednesday then Friday's closing should be easier to anticipate.

Calling all ex-Cracking the Stock Market Code participants...there is a workshop organised just for you. Please check your mailbox for the invitation or visit http://www.chartnexus.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=262 or email to decipherlabs@yahoo.com.sg, only opened for ChartNexus Alumni.

XPertTrader Screening:
Results for potential short term price pattern: (Pending breakout for swing trade)
AdvHldg, Tiongwoon, LC Dev

Results for unsually big volume: (Pending short pause after sharp rally)
Sinopipe, STX, Sino-Env

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

2 Obvious Sectors

After tracking the rebound for 2 weeks, as we enter into the third week, it is time to pick the sector i will be invested in. Once I am confident of the market direction, this is the sector i will build my new portfolio around. From this sector, i will then look for the leader by my own definitions. Oil and gas suppliers looks good and constructions, it will be interesting to see if there is any follow through buying since they only started to rumble last week. I treat today's no follow through as an indication that there are plenty of selling still.

Banks and Properties are the 2 sectors i will also scrutinise closely. I am taking a contrarian view here because it is too obvious that these 2 sectors will be under pressure. Using technical analysis, i will follow the smart money and avoid conventional thinking. Should smart money began to buy, i will follow too. But right now, i'm happier to stay sidelined.

Recently, i managed to devised a XP screening rule to pick up possible short term price patterns for swing trading. I think in this month's issue of SmartInvestor, I had written about that as well as taught this topic at ChartNexus's monthly event as SGX Auditorium.

I will be tracking 3 stocks for possible swing trades, TiongWoon, Adv Hldings, StraitsAsia, OrientCent.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Unusual movement ahead of Ben's speech

US futures lead global indices into a sudden rush as we close higher at noon. This is ahead of ben's speech tonight. Judging from the buying, it seems like he may be annoucing something positive. But then again, it is never so easy. This week's actions has seen mostly buying interest, it makes the last few weeks of selling so forgettable. Over the past 2 weeks, I have managed 3 swing trades on STI and profited from the short side. I would have loved to sit on the put warrants, however, when trading the downside, i always remember this: Price when going down should be fast and furious. This is because of the panic and fear factor driving the price south in great speed. Hence when the market met with resiliency, I took my profits and wait to pounce again. I was very tempted to go long as the broad market seems to be having a field day. However, I never forget how easy it is to give profits back to the market and opted to stay out for now.

Screening on my XPertTrader rule, I found 2 sectors looks to have turned around base on weekly chart. If they finish strongly, i may pick up 1 stock. You may want to check out a list of stocks i presented to fellow XPertTraders at workshop here >>> http://www.chartnexus.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=219

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Dow Jones for now

The current price action brought DJI to a confluence level of upward fibonacci retracement and the top formation resistance. It was also observed that the downtrend line is nearby. RSI looks to be trading at the downtrend line. MacD indicator has a very interesting development. The signal line and MacD line crossed over during the last crash in March'07 and market recovered swiftly. This time round, we are at the same crossover point, the outcome will be interesting.

Join us at SGX Auditorium on the 6th of September 2007,
Profiting from the Bull and Bear Market. Click here for more details

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Taking Actions

As seen from my previous posts, I already had a plan and an opinion about where the market is heading. Over the last few sessions, I promptly executed my plans calmly as the market moves in the direction of my anticipations. My plan was to trim down on my stock positions and to trade on the short side.

It isn't difficult to see that rebounds lately had always been a short and quick affair. There was no sustained rebound and this is ringing alarm in my head. Through the weeks, I have dumped my stocks on rebound. Right now i'm left with 3 stocks. Later I will explain the rationale of keeping these 3 stocks. Index wise, i profited from 2 directions in quick trades. 2 weeks ago, STI was supported at 3300, I long the CW and took a quick profit. Today STI tested 3300 as resistance and it failed during intraday, i went for the put warrants and before the end of the day took a quick profit again. HSI's incredible plunge from positive 1000 to negative is a warning. However, a quick check on Dow Jones, it can rebound to 13,300 thereabts and hence i decided to keep my profits first and re look later. I will be tracking global indices for now and will be looking forward to more trades on the indices instead of individual stocks.

I am pleased to inform that there are only 7 seats left in my 2 day Technical Analysis Course, happening from 1st Sept to 2nd Sept. Should the market bottom by then, the concept and strategies shared will come at a good time!

It's very interesting to know that these participants are serious about learning. Despite the current turmoil, instead of feeling frustrated and paralysed, they turned frustrations into actions! They seize this opportunitiy to learn more about Technical Analysis and be prepared for the next opportunity.

GrowMoney Growth Fund
Jasper
HLH
Yongnam

I intend to ride through the storm with the above stocks and dumped the rest at a loss. This loss eroded part of my profits built from Mar'07 to Jul'07. However the profits from Jul'06 to Mar'07 is safe in the bank. This should limit my exposure should the stock market really crash. When market crash, bid and offer spread will be spectacular. In a worse case scenario, there could be no bid queue to sell to. Hence do not take a crash too lightly. I simply do not like the cloud above credit woes and it's impact on the global economy. The most sensible thing to do is to step aside and reassess the situation and get out while i can.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Federal Chief Cuts Discount Rate

We saw how the markets rebounded late afternoon and then at night, announcement came from US that Fed had cut the discount rate by .5 basis point. Is it coincidence? Or did the privelleged ones closer to information managed to move in first? Why did DJ rebound off 12,500 and close at 12,800s on Thursday night? Smart money also know where they should move price so that the confidence of the market will not be rattled. Hence I do not trade the market using guess work, i form my own opinion and act accordingly. Making use of Technical Analysis, I remain objective in times of panic and will enable me to trade a non random market. Market doesn't move in a random way, there are clues to where it will move and we should all have a Trading System to crack the stock market code.

Source from http://www.federalreserve.gov, Ben Bernanke
In June 2006, Ben holds interest rate hike and that set us off on a wonderful rally for the rest of the year. Now 2007, Ben cuts discount rate and many in the industry are looking at it as a prelude to interest rate cut in September.

12 Aug 2007, wrote about my opinion. Right now market has moved in the direction of my anticipations that is, we are on course to a sustained rebound. If it happens, i will be turning long on index and get out of my stocks on the way up before the rebound ends and turn short. I believe a lower high would be seen. If market still cannot rebound, this is bad because if good news doesn't help the market, there will be no incentive for the market to move up in the near term. Right now, I shall stick by my view until the market proves otherwise.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Private Email Exposed

Stupid, who shared his experience on the on-going turmoil in the shoutbox has emailed me to share a list of stocks to study.

These stocks are deemed to be still expensive interms of FA. Here's the email.

Thanks Stupid!

Hi Decipher,

I am STupId from your blog. Hope u can put up this list of stocks that L&S keep promoting and I simply can't see y we have to buy based on conservative FA. Everything has a price, I am not say DON"T buy FOREVER... but they should only be purchased when the price is MORE, much MORE attractive than now. Here it goes (in no particular order, just recalling from my head):

Cheena Steel Trains (Midas)
SIN-OH (Sino Environ)
Strippers (Swiber)
Red heart/Red star (HongXing)
Red country (HongGuo)
China Fertilizer (China XLX)
YangZi(YangZiJiang)
Lord of the YAN(Yanlord, even T**as*k was buying?? gosh, they under the L&S spell?)
Love potion #9(JiuTian)
Cheena Steel Balls (FerroChina, low margin n yet high valuation)

ALL the LANs(capitaLAN, KEPPEL LAN, Shitty DEV, SG LAN... blah blah blah)

Will alert u when I find others...

Good day,
STupId

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Support Levels for DJI

Utilising Fibonacci, we can connect the low on early March '07 to the top on mid July '07 and we will get all the retracement levels. DJ has broken the perceived support at 13,228 points which was once the 38.2% support. We saw DJ trading above this support level during late July but this level has now given way. The possible technical support levels in technical analysis are as follows:

200 Day Moving Average is at 12,813 level
Fibonacci 50% Retracement Level
Major Trendline support which is close to 200 Day Moving Average

Download your FREE professional charting software or find out how to automate your stock selection.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

A concerted effort

Central banks all around started injecting funds into financial markets in response to ease credit crunch. This sort of sets off alarms in my head. They didn't act when Bear Sterns went down. However, when BNP's suspension of 2 funds came to light, global markets sell off. It was long thought that the subprime bad loans will not affect the economy until BNP's stunner. Now the world is afraid that the worst fear may be confirmed. My thoughts were, if BNP Paribas can be affected and central banks are acting, there could be more nasty surprises coming.

Isn't financial market interesting? When markets are soaring high, everyone is worried about the bubble in China. But guess what? Uncle Dow was the culprit that punctured the bull run. While I managed to side step the bears by liquidating my whole portfolio when I first detect signs of troubles using Technical Analysis, I am still caught by my initial positions to rebuild my portfolio. I went back into the market too early. If not for the pocketing of profits by liquidating my portfolio , surely i would have commited the sin i was so good at..... turning profits into losses. I would need to reassess my views on where the market is likely to head and then act accordingly. The immediate option is to short the index futures to hedge. However this may not be a wise thing to do .....yet

All along my view is to turn short at rebounds, so far, I didn't see any sustained rebound and hence have not acted. What's more, with Central Banks and Feds reacting very swiftly to support the financial markets, my short positions have to be timed to near perfection or I risk being caught flat footed. Anticipations of Fed cutting rate in an emergency meeting before September's policy meeting are reported in the market place. If this is true, it will set off a rally in stocks and to me, that will be the best chance to turn long and then get out of the stocks i am holding. Because my anticipations is, interest rate cut may not arrest the problem, it merely slowed down the problem and worse of all, lower interest rate might lead to another new problem. Indeed, financial market has a self correcting mechanism running....

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.