Properties back in play amidst oil scare at US$70

Creative and Property counters keep our index afloat. Amazingly, with oil price at US$70 yet we have a mix market of winners against losers and the volume although muted but at record oil price many would have expected a massacre. Just took a quick peek at yahoo finance and spotted US Govt to release reserves. This will put a stop to the scaling oil price. Underlying sentiment is still bullish. What we have now is uncertainty of the damage Katrina had caused. No one knows the exact damge to oil supply and the previous sessions are merely due to speculations of the damage. This storm could cause US some damage. But will it affect the rest of the world?

Since the start of the week, I have expected some rebound this week, at least 2...it had happened. The stocks has been sold down for 2 weeks! Surely human nature will come into play and bargain hunters will start hunting. Another question burns my mind....why is there a release of a bullish report of properties only today? Why as an outsider, I can see that property counters are the one to bet on and yet it took the experts so long to deduce? There isn't any news right from the start of the decline till today and yet the report has to come today. Did they buy when the property counters are pushing lows? Who are the ones who sold down Keppel at closing as reported in the previous posts. Sharks looming everywhere..... If you believe in market leaders, next up should be Marine plays...

Charts finally! : )



Capital Land: I just want to highlight that the next resistance area will be 2.96 caused by the gap down. Today's volume is 240% of previous. Too much for my liking. However, this volume could propel it to test the highs. But let's clear 2.96 first.


Ho Bee: The support 5.10 stood like a rock and it broke the 0.550 resistance and close at a historical high of 0.555 today. Volume is at least 40% more than previous session. I have been noticing how it was resilence to the bad market sentiment. Don't forget, this company posted a record results recently. So far no house has call for any rating. Being a small cap, how far can it goes? But the high can get higher as they are no overhanging shares. There will not be a big road block blocking it's way up.



Cosco Corp: 2.31 support was successfully tested. Volume of recent trading has been light. Do I Buy near at support and cut if wrong or do I buy when it breaks the 2.60 barrier? If I buy close to 2.31, how long do I need to babysit? History showed that the last major correction then consolidation is capped at 10 trading sessions....hmm...

Jewels amid the storm

Bio Sensor, Bio-Treat and SembKim...remember these counters. I'm not trading them but I would like to see how far they can go amidst a cautious market. There was no way for me to pick up these buy signals from my charting skills. Looks like a long way to go for me. Bio-Treat broke it's $1 resistance. It continues to surge forward creating an incredible mood of exuberance. The move started at sub 60 cents levels. I anticipate the share price to retrace and test this $1 resistance. Perhaps then, it's a good entry for me. I could have bought today if not for the unclear sentiment towards oil price. I asked myself, what are my chances in picking a jewel amidst a storm compared to riding on one of the leaders in a bullish rally. Of course the latter is easier to win. The former would be more risk. The choice is mine. All the above 3 mentioned counters had reported good news. Bio-Treat and Sembkim had sky rocketed. Will Biosensor go ahead and test it's old high of 1.20? Having a small trading account, the odds are already stacked against me when i make the first bet. Brokerage will ensure that at least a 2 cents move would i be able to break even if I were to buy only 10 lots. Can these "jewels" make a run up of 10 cents? 20 cents? Nobody knows. But the probability is not high. The only thing I can do is, observe and learn swing trading. There will be a day when I am free to do swing trading. And when it comes, I am prepared.

Back to the oil price. Katrina's damage on refineries is not reported yet. We can see oil price climbing steadily threatening to break record levels. The risk is a damage to the refinery facilities that could take months to repair and thus sending the supply off the scale. And when that happens, economy growth will suffer! On the other hand, if Katrina blew over and refineries are back to work in a few days, we can buy cheap! Anyway, my futures account is now ready. I'm going to enter another different kind of ball game! :D Actually it's more like being ready to short Crude Oil when the oil bubble burst! This is a chance of a lifetime man!

Hurricane hurts SGX

As expected our market closed badly due to the pressure from high oil price. Although the losers lead the gainers close to a ratio of 4:1. The volume however showed that not many people are selling. We are now in a very uncertain market condition where fear dictates. Every step that the oil price takes has an impact now. This time they mean it because the wind is said to be so strong that it could damage refinery facilities in it's path. I will wait till the wind blow over and dust settled before taking any actions. My gut feel is, our market is over reacting to the oil price. It rose solely because of Katrina. Once that is over and provided no refineries are damaged, oil price will fall just as quickly as it rises and bargain hunters will start hunting the stocks.

*sings* Wind wind go away, come again another day......

Wind of Change

Have you ever heard the song wind of change by scorpion before? The recent fluctuation of oil price caused by hurricane Katrina reminded me of that song. On the latest report, it was said that Katrina may miss hitting the gulf platforms. It sent the oil price tumbling down to below US$67 per barrel. As for the demand and supply factor, it seems to be well controlled. Last I heard was that there ain't enough refineries. The fluctuations of the oil price could be trading at work. Remember, there are many big sharks out there. We have to be alert and run away as fast as possible when these sharks are coming. Be it equities, futures or warrants.

Selling volume is drying up on most counters. We see modest gains in STI during the last 2 sessions. I am still not going to buy yet. If I don't see all the smart money going in, why should i? They are the experts with funds that will drive the market. Without them, it's going to be range play. There are many ways to trade the market. But looking at my small trading account, I will be better off buying during rallies. My money management rules doesn't give me a very good risk/reward if I were to trade trading range.

Our market has been pretty depressed for so long, time to test the resistance. I anticipate at least 2 good days this week given that oil price retreated and our own economy is poised for a better than expected 2H. Selling volume is drying up too on most bluechips. Don't forget the gossip of Elections coming. : )

I am still waiting for any counters that showed strengths in a breakout. Sorry guys, no charts again. I'm sure you will understand why. Such a quiet and sideway trading market, I will be plotting blindly if I can give you a good lobang (opportunity).

Market rebounded technically

Market rebounded slightly today as expected. I have seen it many times, it's the human psychology at work. When prices are low, there will be many bargain hunters in the market. When it gets lower, they will either continue to buy more or "loon" (Hokkien for hoping). Then when price falls to an unbearable level, they sell in droves causing the share price to tumble even more. I have to admit, i'm a victim myself before. Even as of now I am so tempted to buy COSCO CORP when the price was rebounding nicely at 2.40. I had to contain my greed. The support for cosco will be 2.31, you judge your own risk appetite. Anyway, in a directionless market, a rebound can be shortlived as soon as the next day. Hence I always thought it will be better to buy, when the market sentiment is better.

Keppel Land again was sold down on married deal to 2.40 at close and this is the second time this week. Something is brewing. The share price soared to 4.50 only to close at 2.40. Buy ups were strong today. Volume was also 50% more than yesterday. Maybe many could have forgotten, but both capital land and keppel land are casino plays. So if the play is back, watch this two fellas.

Marine counters were rather muted. Volume is still uniformly pretty weak thus forming what I believe to be consolidation mode. COSCO was the only making a sharp decline.

Banking on my memory, I remembered in a directionless market, prices will move to resistance level before heading down to test support. Since most of our counters are near resistance, range trading can be deployed here. The movement can be explained, bargain hunters returned to buy their favourite stocks because it's near support and "cheap". When price start to go up, greed will drive more people to buy and hope that we are in a bull rally. When buying starts to dry up, these greedy people turn fearful and begining to sell ... and this selling thus triggers more selling into fear.




Bio-T, simply cannot ignore this counter. Look for it to break $1 resistance with volume.

Bears delivers first real blow

Losers outpaced gainers today in a crushing victory for the bears. The good news is, the volume is pretty light. Bulls are not knocked out. Scanning through my watchlist, the decline is marked by light volume. Thos who like to pick bottoms, this could be a great chance. For me, I buy only when there is a rally, this is the only way I can trade the market given my small trading account and a full time job.

Oil Price slips on better than expected US oil inventory report. US new home sales hit record high in July. Good catalyst to give the market a much needed reason to head north after nearly 3 weeks of corrections. Oil is the only main concern for most now, it has been the scapegoat for recent sell offs. Now that it is retreating a little, time for the bulls to begin bargain hunting.

Support for Marine counters stood like a rock. But not for properties as they continue their downslide. Marine offshore services is very in the news lately with more expected to come. My top picks will be still Cosco & Semb Corp. As for properties, i'm waiting for strength to show up before I even want to consider them.

As usual, inorder not to tempt you into getting vested in uncertain times, I post no charts. :P Actually the truth is, there is nothing good to chart. I only post good lobangs. Otherwise how to growmoney right!? hahaha

Market Tangos with Investors

3 steps up, 11 steps down, that is the reality of the market since 3rd August 2005 where it started to turn down. Sound like some dance steps? Tango? Cha Cha? I wouldn't want to get vested at this stage seriously. As I have said before, there are times to go long and there are times to short the market. But surely this is time to just sit aside and watch.....at least for me.

If you have the time to watch intra day, ability to buy at least 30 lots, you can consider trading range play....I.E buy at support and sell at resistance. Otherwise if you are like me, having a full time job and can only look at market at night, wait for general market condition to get better before you trade.

I am sorry but looking at my watchlist, again there are nothing interesting to post. Most are in consolidation mood, not a single breakout insight. This includes the spectacular tech stocks that shined today. I wonder how far can they go before they sucummb to gravity. Sentiment has not recovered yet, if you are unsure, stay clear.

Regional Bourses has fallen too and the price of oil keep pushing up. Rocky times ahead! Legends normally spend time away from the market when it's heading no where.

Let's spend some time with our loved ones since they are the reasons why we are working so hard to provide for. If you have not been telling your wive/girl friend/misteress that you love them, do it now! A happy mind keeps your level of psychology healthy and strong for the market! : )

Market joined in the fun

As the regional bourses rises, our market followed in tandem. The feel good feeling after PM Lee's Remake Singapore pushes market higher. There was no good news nor is the oil going lower. Looking at the top volume, bluechips are missing. In comes the small caps. I asked myself, is this how a bull rally run? With bluechips on average volume while the small caps companies leads the market in volume? A real bull run is made up from both groups of companies. Until the bluechips threaten to break new highs or resistance areas, the risk reward for me isn't great. Think about it, have you realised how quickly penny stocks retraced as soon as the fake bull is killed? Or how a two day rally ends in a bull trap where market retraced and greedy people are stuck in higher price. Until STI test and break the resistance, i maintain range bound for our market. If you are savvy enough, trading range is very lucrative too!

Keppel Land closed at 3.42 from 3.46. Reading from the tape, I discovered very unusual activities of odd lot buying and selling. However there are more buy ups in bigger lots. Someone is keeping the share price down while he accumulate more? Then it closed today with a married deal at 3.42 when the current buy price at 3.46. Something is brewing, but I am not able to decipher. Let's watch on.

No meaningful charts tonight. Although K1 Ventur and Bio-Treat are stars today, I wouldn't trade them yet. K1 Ventur, fundamentally, this stock has no financial instituitional support. Which means to say, given it's cheap share price, high chances of manipulative hands at play.
Bio-Treat, although there is financial instituitional support, there are too many over hang shares. The counter had dropped from a high of 1.28 to as low as 0.58. It will need a more than 100% effort for it to test the new high again. 1.00 and 1.28 are where many long suffering investors might be waiting to bail out. Once cross 1.28....no more overhang shares.

Post National Day Rally

After watching the National Day Rally, I took away with me some hints and clues about our next 5 years. No wonder PM Lee was rosy about the next 5 years will be better than the last, he has a whole Remake Singapore plans. From the presentation slides, some parts of Singapore will undergo major facelift. Orchard, Marina and even our heartland. He used TPY as an example of how the oldest estate in Singapore has been rejuvenated. Also, the government will be helping low income family to own flats through CPF grants. Couple all these up with the expected annoucement of IRs in Q3 and the relaxation of policy on home loans, i am bullish about the property sector. More upside to come? I have made an anticipation and will react if market agrees with me. I still have to factor in high oil price which will drag sentiment a little. Not to mention how Hang Seng's profit taking affected our market on Thursday.

After scanning my watchlist, I found nothing exciting to chart. Hence I have tried my hands on STI. You can check the chart for my analysis. I have noticed how our market had opened higher but close lower for the last few sessions. Also, the volume is pretty light. This should be normal retracement or pull backs. Our market was in consolidation mood from Jan'05 to June'05, that is six months. I'm sure our upside is still not limited. Moreover, companies are still turning in good corporate results, this could mean that the high oil price has not really affected their earnings yet. If companies can stomach the high oil price, the economy should be able to move forward still but cautiously.


STI: The odds are higher for it to move upwards to test resistance after the National Day Rally. I seen it happened over the last 2 years, where after the rally, market feel "good". But bear in mind about the oil factor.


K1 Ventur recorded an excellent FY05, generating revenues of $576 mil compared to $230 mil a year ago. Also it is going to sell Gas Company of Hawaii to Macquarie Infrastructure Company for US$238 million cash. Market seems to like this deal and K1 closed + 0.02 and finished top of the active list with 51 mil in volume transacted on last Friday.
From the Technical point of view, a double bottom formation (Look like a W ) is forming should share price breaks 0.310 to form the double bottom and volume is more than 51 mil. RSI looks set to record a higher high if it breaks 0.310 while MACD is in buy zone.

Market SideSteps Investors

Market soared on open due to lower oil price and Wall Streets gain. However, the gains were pared off as we drift closer to the closing and finally most gains were demonlished. Those who bought at the high today are stuck. The question now becomes will the market rebound and let these people liquidate their positions? Looking at Keppel Land and Cosco Corp, the volume today is pretty light. Chance to get out if there's a rebound.

Market will continue to trade sideways. I saw very mixed actions from leaders of the last rally. Marine group is pretty weak. No momentum to move up yet. I asked myself, is it worth the risk to trade now? Market is merciless, during uncertain times, it is best to steer clear. Another strategy will be to buy near support to hold. Once break support, just cut! Do not sit and hope.


Keppel Land: The Breakout yesterday retraced badly today with many investor opting to take profit. The volume is less than 50% of yesterday's trading volume and the retracement tested and hold above 3.42 support.



Cosco Corp: We might be heading to a consolidation zone just like the previous consolidation zone before it's up move. Volume has been light and the trendline flattening. Hold on tight, it's going to be a wild ride. Although history may not repeat itself 100%, looking back at the old consolidation zone, slowly accumulate at the support might be a good idea.

Market trading sideways

I had the luxury to withness intra day actions today. It goes like this, morning selling...I thought it was well absorbed, after lunch, Singapore's non oil export beats analyst's estimation and send the market soaring.....late afternoon, market begin to show weakness and retraced. But only 2 counters stood out. Bio Treat and Keppel Land. I don't know why the super volume and the price breakout, but 1 thing is for sure, by the time you know why, the upmove will be nearing it's end. Technical Analysis helps us detect such movement before the break of a news.

General market still weak...I still don't see leading stocks coming back strong. Marine sector has not recovered from it's retracement though i saw bottoming. Property sector wise, only Keppel Land is pushing hard. Banking sector which helped supported the index yesterday was missing in actions today.



BioTreat: The arrows depicted how on each super volume day the share price will climb higher. The volume today comes with a great breakout of the resistance now turn support at 0.840. Morning star formation was formed yesterday. Near term target 0.895, the last height achieved on 29th Sept 2004.



Starhub: Dividend coming up on the 24th Aug. EMA trendline is sloping up. After the morning star formation, it closed todaywith a white candle on a heavier volume.Resistance stands at 2.03, breaking it will create new high.


Keppel Land: Breakout spotted. This coming after a hammer with white candle confirmation. The volume is at least 30% greater thanthe previous trading session. This should be a valid breakout.Resistance at 3.42 turns support.


Cosco Corp: After the spectacular run up from the consolidation period,cosco could be taking a break. The recent pull back looksidentical to the consolidation period. Support should be2.31 and resistance at 2.60. Breaking the resistance will be key to it's next march up.

ChartNexus Sponsors Decipher

Many thanks to Chartnexus.com for inviting me to be their product ambassador. From today onwards, I will be using their great product to do my charting. For fellow traders who do not have a trading tool, you can check out their charting tool found on their website .

Bulls put on Anti-Skids

After slipping on high oil price, Bulls were out in force today and formed many hammers and potential reversal signals among Property Leaders and Marine Leaders. The anticipation for technical rebound yesterday was correct. Now next question, when will this rebound fall over?
Being a careful trader these days, I have 2 suggestions. First option, buy in small lots, buy more if correct and cut if wrong. This will ensure your capital is not hurt if market reverse badly as we can see over the last few sessions. Second option, buy only if most of the leaders are breaking new highs. This is the safest as it more or less ensure you are inline with the major trend.

Guess not what the market is going to do, decide what will you do when market gets there.

I'm currently reading up on William J. O'Neil's book. Really great stuffs! Shall share more once I grasp the concepts.

Here are the great signals I found. Remember, T.A only increase your chances of victory, not a 100% guarantee. Always have a cut loss.


Starhub, morning star formed.


Cosco Corp: Morning Star spotted!


Capital Land: Trap or strength?

Oil Price pulls down the pants of bulls.

High Oil price wrecks the confidence of investor as we see STI close down 20 odd points again after what seems like a technical rebound on last Friday. The bulls slipped on oily ground, how long will they take to recover and stand up again? More downside? I would just like to remind everyone, don't be confused between trading range and a rally.

Many traders have been eyeing to do a quickie tomorrow based on technical rebound anticipation. Normally after a very bad day, there will always be "investors" to buy their favourite stock at cheaper prices. So if you are savvy enough, you can try. I too noticed some hammers formed on some bluechips' charts like Cosco Corp, Capital land & Keppel Land.

Hammer is a bullish signal that needs confirmation with a white candle in the next trading session. Volume is key here. The psychology here is, the counter was sold down by bearish traders to a low in the intra day, however the price could not close at the low. It is being buy up by bullish traders. Thus forming a hammer.

There are many ways to trade the market. As conversed in the chat window above, we can trade breakouts, we can fish bottom or we can trade trading ranges. Choose your most comfortable strategy and make sure you have discipline cut loss. I can't emphasis enough how important this is. Many people has been hurt by ill discipline in trading. Take care of your losses and your profit will take care of themselves - Alexander Elder



Semb Marine: Threatening to break all time high again.


STI chart. Together with some bluechips, it has rebounded of support line.


The support at 0.510 was tested today and the price rebounded to close at 0.515. It must be noted that the share price has been hitting lower highs with a steady volume averaging 1.6 million shares during the last 3 sessions.
Volume bearish divergence has also been spotted where the latest new high has a volume lower than the previous rally as denoted by the red arrows in the chart - Chart Software courtesy from Chartnexus.com

High Oil Price pushes Higher!

The already high oil price pushes higher and test US$66 per barrel on the last trading day of last week. It will hurt Economy worldwide because it will slowdown growth. Demand has out stripped supply and caused the spike. It will need sometime for the market to get use to the current price level.

Scanning through my watch list, retracement was all i see with no sparkle, except for the oil plays such as Keppel Corp and KS Energy. I had attached the chart of Keppel Corp below.

Recent market sentiment is expected to be bad until we get used to the current oil price or the retreat of the oil price. Do not mistake technical rebound for market reversal. It will prove to be costly. Time element in trading is also important. There are times when we simply have to go cash and wait for the buy signals favoured by good market sentiment. I suspect this period should be it. We could be in a trading range.


UTAC: Cap reduction announced. Will it break it's downtrend?


Keppel Corp, The leader in Oil play?


Ho Bee: Despite a good set of results, volume remains light


Capital Land, more retracement?

Massacre in the Stock Market

Massacre! Losers lead Gainers by an astonishing ratio of 4:1. While all along i had been noticing how our market was ignoring high oil price but not today. With Oil price hitting US$65 per barrel, our market simply gave way. It trigger broad based selling and most took their money and run away. But i am dead sure there are some who are holding on and hoping for a rebound. I know because i have done that before. Remember, in trading, you must rid of all emotions, greed, hope and fear....they disrupt your ability to think clearly.

Looking back, the signs are already showing when the leaders of current market is showing high shadows. Same for most bluechips like SPH, starhub.... Everytime they push higher, but end of the session close at low or near low. It's exactly what Livermore had said in his book. When the leaders are slowing down unable to hit new highs, the reversal is coming. What happened in the 19th century is happening in 21st century! Amazing! That's T.A for you. People often laughed at me for studying history price actions. But they do not know this, market do not change because people do not change. This is said by Livermore who noticed that the same greed, hope and fear happened all his years of trading.

Spotlight on Ho Bee! It recorded an amazing sets of record! Group turnover for the 2nd quarter of 2005 rose 196% to S$38.3 million as compared to the same period last year.
On a half-yearly comparison, Group turnover for the 1st half of 2005 went up substantially from S$21.2 million last year to S$120.6 million. This was again due to the sharp increase in the sales of both development and investment properties which rose 916% and 403% respectively.

T.A on Ho Bee has detected something is brewing. No wonder it is resilent to today's selling.



Starhub, ready to retrace?


SPH: Earlier suspiciuons confirmed


Semb Marine: False breakout


Noble: False breakout, i'm wrong, i cut. No sitting on losses for me.


Keppel Land


Ho Bee: Resilence....but for how long?


Cosco: Another titanic..



Capitaland: Let it form a base first

Fear sets in!

Scanning my watchlist is like heading to a war zone where there are many injured soldiers moaning and groaning in pain. Most either in trading range or have long upper shadows which means bearish sentiments. Retracement is the word. Temasek's placement of Capital Land's shares rocked it badly from pole position and keppel land suffers in tandem. Is this the end of the bullish rally? Market taking a breather?

While on the MRT home today, I went deep in thought again. I think I am beginning to understand the importance of psychology in trading. How do you maintain a healthy mentality for trading? I think the most appropriate answer to that would be to avoid doing things that will affect your psychology. Think about a smoker who has just quit smoking. Put him together with a group of 10 smokers, chances are, he will be tempted to light up a cigarette. If he can resist despite the temptations, he has master the power of psychology. Now put it back in trading, if you sucuumb to greed and deviate from your trading plan while monitoring closely the market actions, you has lost control of your psychology. Summay, inorder to maintain your own discipline to stick to your trading plans/rules/system, do not do anything or get close to anything that will affect you psychologically. Some of the things I think will affect your psychology are:

1. Counting your paper profit or losses
2. Looking at market price actions every minute
3. Thinking about your heavy losses
4. Listening to market rumours
5. Rued at missing a chance, or stocks that has rallied above the norm.
6. Sitting on paper losses

The list can go on. As long as it is something that will cause you to deviate from your trading plan, list it down and paste it somewhere. Before every trading day, look at it and try to avoid them.

Another new thing I had learnt is the ability to lose. Yes, it may sound wierd, but i find that it's true. In every trade, we should only allow ourself to lose an amount that is not painful to us. This will ensure we are not psychologically affected by the loss. Let me describe a logical plan, supposingly, you get to keep a cash savings of $1000 into your bank account every month. You decide that you will risk $200 every month in invesment. Hence your maximum lost per month should be capped at $200. Lose it and you shall wait for the next month. This way, not only your savings will grow money, your trading account will not be de-capitalised too.

LAst but not least, DO NOT SIT ON PAPER LOSSES - You are wrong in your analysis hence the price move opposite you. Why are you still holding?

Hmm...I think i am going to publish an E-Book about my lessons in Trading. Anyone wanna share the publications? :P keke

Starhub: Plenty of shooting stars on the chart....don't let it hit your head.


SPH: Current up move is not convincing


Sembawang Marine: While other marine stocks capsized, this one powers ahead


Noble: Bullish unlimited!


Keppel Corp: The oil rig maker


Ho Bee: There was a time, when people said that Ho Bee will become Hay Bee, you never did....



Capital Land: Temasek don't want, you want?

High Oil vs PM Lee

Oil touched new high amid fears of supply concerns. Did the market already knew? Or will the market react tomorrow? Looking abroad, our region's bourses are not having a great day. Looked like a mixed day of trading. I shall not decide my actions based on my anticipation right now. Let's see how our market react tomorrow. Then I will follow the trend.

PM Lee has said he expect better GDP for 2005 after recent strong showings. He also added that the next 5 years will be better than the last 5 years. Wow! Such confidence. I wonder will it motivate the market sentiment and test new highs again.

Which way will market follow? PM Lee? High Oil?

I spent a great deal of time in reorganising my watch lists according to sector. Now I will only be looking at these counters closely. No more wild goose chasing and certainly no more look good penny stocks.

Warrents. The talk of the town. Aunties and Uncles has whacked warrants in the recent rally. Warrents are a good way to trade blue chips or expensive counters. But I wonder if Aunties and Uncles know it is for trading and not investing? I hope the brokers are ethical enough to remind them incase they decided to invest in warrent.

If you read this far, I'm going to reward you. :D Please take a look at SPH and Noble warrents. They look promising. Their mother shares are threatening a breakout. When mother share breakout, i'm sure you know what the babies will do right? *wink*

And once again, I hope you guys check out the advertisements for great trading strategies or ideas. Some even has free charts.


Starhub, a star buy!


SPH - Breakout


Semb Marine


Noble, surprise of the last 2 sessions


Capital Land - Temasek pared it's holdings...

Different Types Of Analysis

Charts:


Ho Bee



STI chart


Sembawang Marine


Keppel T T

Over the weekend, I had read a book titled, "Trade Like Jesse Livermore" by Richard Smitten. For those who don't know, he is one of the greatest legend of all time in the business of speculation. I can't help but realised after reading so many books, some of the most basic concepts are mentioned in each one of them. Stop Loss, Psychology, Money Management and follow the major trend are the most obvious repeating topics in all the books i come across. My question is, am I (or you) following it? For me, I did not. It is stupid of me to read and yet not follow over the past year. I went through all my past trades and realised my trading strategy is doomed to fail. Just as what Innocent Bystander pointed out. I have picked up a new strategy from this legend, that is, only buy the market leaders. As over the long period, they are the most profitable. Think about Cosco, Semb Marine, NOL....they are the leaders of the Marine sector when it was hot last year. The next sector in my opinion will be property. But does market think the same as me? "Never buy on anticipation", said Livermore. I will buy when market show me confirmation of my opinion. How many times have we seen a penny stock rallies and only to see it back to where you bought it after a few months. Or how many times have you seen a penny stock rise all the way to close above $2? I have never seen that. But I do see expensive stocks becoming more expensive in a shorter time. Hyflux, NOL, Cosco....some of the stocks i ignored to persue penny stocks which did not show so much growth.

I noticed a danger signal as depicted by Mr Livermore very similar to the candlesticks analysis's shooting star. A sign both the western and eastern world pay alot of attention to.
It was also mentioned that there are 3 stages of the market. Uptrend, Sideways, Downtrend. To Livermore, this is the cycle. While many savvy trader trades the trading range during sideways, to him, it was not where his most profitable trades were made. I can envision what his trading strategy was. A leader in the industry group breakout, he will use his probing method to enter the trade. If the leader turns ard, he will cut his position rightaway, suffering the minimum loss. He did this because he was wrong in his timing. A trade was made after lots of studies in identifying the trend and the market cycle in what he called the top down analysis. So the probablity of being wrong is low. When a leader industry group leads the market, it won't be a short time. Thus if he got it right, the ride up is very lucrative. But he warns of complacency where a trader got it right, sit on rich paper profit and ignore a danger sign. There are more to the book then i can possibly share here. I will try my best to share a bit every other day. Meanwhile, I will be scouting for leaders!

Have you ever stepped out of the box and look from the outside? Well, a trader friend of mine did months ago and came out with the lists of different type of analysis.

Fundamental Analysis: Humans who believed that the good financial results of the companywill be rewarded by the incline of it's share price.

Technical Analysis: Humans who believed that the chart patterns are re-occuring because it represent human emotions in trading. Greed, hope, despair, ignorance.....these have appeared way back in 19th century and it will always be the same.

Luck Analysis: Humans who believe that their luck is high at the moment and goes into market for the big kill. They mistook bull rally as their own personal luck. Usually this group of people will be killed by bear markets.

Hope Anaylsis: Humans who buy their shares and then hope that it will go up. Without cut loss, this group of people will see their investing capital up in smoke.

Astrology Analysis: Humans who believed that the planet movement will affect the force of market. This is made popular by the legends in Romance of 3 Kingdoms.

If you don't believe and laugh it off, take a look at the forums and observe. It is hard facts that human psychologies never changes. Even legends will be greedy once in a while. The above is shared to allow you to view urself as a trader. If you fall under hope & luck analysis, please reassess your psychology approach to the market.

HGM Dumped.....Decipher Reborned!

Let me share with you. I made a very brave decision today. It is my biggest loss to date. I finally let go of this emotional baggage. HGM has been cut by me. I bought at 0.540 and sold at 0.460. The relationship begins in Nov'04 whenHGM gave me my first biggest win. Now it had taken it away from me and more. Is it painful to cut? yes. But it's the sensible and right thing to do. I have grew numb of looking at the loss everyday anyway. It created a negative feeling and hinder my trading prowess. I have been ridiculed at and look silly talking about investing when I am sitting on a loss with HGM. I was losing because i sat on paper loss. Now, I have lost. The difference is, after a lost, it's a lost and you move on from here. Losing? It means you will still be losing (Imagine falling into a bottomless pit) until you cut.

People have ridiculed me as someone who stupidly lose on the market. I feel otherwise, everytime i lose i learnt something new and fine tuned my system. The past does not equals to the future! I have talked so much about legends who don't sit on losses, they cut when they are wrong. How stop loss is very important to trading. And then? I still hold on to HGM?? What a contradiction! Now my portfolio contains only profits and I will keep it this way. In the future, any trade that i take, if i'm wrong, I will cut! No more hoping. Decipher Reborned!

Ok time to talk about the market. Retracement day! Tomorrow is a Friday, i don't see any motivation for buyers to step in. I sense market toppish....shrinking volume, upper shadows after a run of 6 rally days. Is this a breather? Is this the retracement? Economic front wise, nothing negative is reported, we are still expecting a good 2H GDP! Watch your profit closely. If market absorb the selling well, not much volume on a down day, then I would think the rally ain't done yet!


Ho Bee: Is it really a Hay Bee or a prawn?
The volume of this new high is lower than when it first test the resistance. Could be a false breakout.


Full Apex


DC - Trading Range play.

Deflated once again.

Confidence was sky high when i picked 2 stocks correctly back to back. However I came crashing back to planet earth when Rotary triggered my stop loss with a hefty volume. I decided to just cut and f**k it. No more hoping and mis leading myself that it will rebound. Winners do not babysit on paper losses. They cut when their analysis goes wrong. i'm left with HoBee. This one is far far away from my buy price. Will my stop loss again be triggered?

I had an interesting chat with "Innocent By stander" in the chat window on top. I thought it was more than coincidence that the way he described his strategy which is very similar to what i am going to do.

1) Follow general market sentiment and trend
2) Study the market leaders and leading sector closely
3) Using Chart to find best entry and exit.

I think i can manage number (3) and fairly good enough for (1) but i am a bit clueless about (2). I closed my eyes and travel back in time over the last 15 mths....counters such as Semb Marine, Cosco, Keppel Corp and SPC comes to my head first. A quick check.....yes...they are really the top leaders over the last 1 year. Or am i wrong? People! Inorder to grow rich together, we must find the correct sector and the correct leading stocks. Please contribute if you know ok?

As for the general market today. It stormed upwards most part of the day only to close lower in the afternoon on profit taking. Most of the people are still jittery about retracements. I think oil also played a part. It is now about US$62. Hmm....if only Steel prices move up again. :)



Rotary: Cut Loss activated


Keppel TT for quickie


Notice the long bar on the big lot sell down? That's what made me cut


Full Apex


Ho Bee....don't become Hay Bee pls!

Raging Bull hit Singapore

As bullish as it can get dudes, we are getting good quater-end results, June's manufacuring index beats expectations, property rules relaxed and now, PMI and employment indicator are reported up! The recent market actions can be observed as intra day selling and strong buying up to closing. Tech sector once again has been reported to be seeing better days with orders increasing from both local and overseas. So that makes it 3 interesting sector to look at, Oil, gas and energy sector, Marine sector and Tech sector.

Many in the forum had warned that our market had moved too fast too furious. They are worried about a retracement. Being a rookie, i am not sure how badly and when the retrace will come and whether this bull run will continue. Using my limited T.A and my past research, this uptrend has been with volume and good fundamental news. So it's not a fake bull. Also, the sell during intra day and buy up at closing is a sign found in bullish market. Even our best friend in trade US has been booming over the past weeks. Looking at regional markets, everywhere is rallying. Nett, I don't think it will end so soon, so sudden. Comments?

Here's a quick look at the charts.



The late buying up in volume pushed up the closing to 0.495 from an intraday low of 0.480









Ho Bee: Outbreak! A quick check on it's fundamentals, it delivered a good FY 04, with property rules relaxed, I think this should be worth a bet.








HG-Metal: News of securing a distributor rights from Ferror China for S.E.A seems to demonstrate the ability of management at HG-Metal. Chartwise, Asymetrical Triangle is forming.
I have no doubts about the need for steel in an improving economy. But share price seems to suggest otherwise.




Ho Bee: Late buying in big lots seen. I followed the big money and got vested. We will see tomorrow if the move upwards continues.







Rotary, are you going to test and break 0.520? Fundamentals wise, i found it sound. Nothing fishy.

Property Index Defies Gravity!

As the crowd were worrying about a possible retracement by our property counters, they simply rock the roof off by giving investors yet another brilliant showing! This is definitely the hot sector now to get into. As my pocket is smaller, i opted to look at a potential outbreak named Ho Bee. You can view it's chart below. Yes, such dizzying height will cause a great painful fall for those who chase high. Do you agree with the statement? I used to think so and would not chase. But why not ride the trend with strict cut loss? To go with the flow or wait for the next round, you decide. I was reading "Lessons from the Greatest Stock Traders Of All Time and found that all these legends buy stocks that are moving. They bet on trend and cut if they are wrong. Something from today onwards that i will try to emulate. : ) They also have this bird eye view on the general market sentiment. Something that is similar to what i'm writting everynight. I try my best to put together where the market is heading. Given my limited economy sense, i need to brush up more!

News of Saudi King's Death has caused a spike in oil price. So far no changes to the oil policy was announced. But the threat of high oil price has once again threaten the stock market world wide. So far our market has been rather resilent to external news. It's still moving upwards to celebrate the nation's 40 yrs old birthday. We call it National Day Rally. Oh, of course the talk of Elections is on everyone's lips. Incase you don't know, there is also such a thing call election rally.

Looking at sectorial plays, I think property sector and oil, gas and energy sector will remain the leaders of our market. If you have any other thoughts, please share with all. Thanks in advance! Looking at the bigger picture and following the major sector can be very profitable!

I'm celebrating 2 months of non stop blogging today. Throughout this 2 months, i had learnt alot. I jumped from forums to friendsters inorder to boost the visitors to this site. I wanted to build a community of traders to share comments and ideas here to ultimately learn from each other. Looking at the daily average of 270 visitors per day now, i am very grateful to you for making this interaction corner possible.*take a bow* As from the technical learning aspect, I saw my worst mistakes right infront of my eyes......ill-disciplined cut loss and non stop hoping. I had found my invisible wall to growing money. I hope you had found yours. As my blog is getting more and more interest, my friend whom saw this site grew, got interested in what we are doing. He asked where he should get started. I think I advised him correctly, he has to choose between the role of investor or trader. Of course, we chosen the latter, a tough role that requires pure hardwork, commitment and passion. Trading is not suitable for everyone. Sacrifices has to be made.

Incase you are interested, I have sold out my Suntec Reits. Check out my reasons by clicking on the charts. All my researching shows that great legends never sit on losses. They only sit on profits.

Finally, if you like what I wrote, please check out my advertisements. Some of the great things I learnt are by following the links there. Do not think it's just pure products selling. Some links are like my site, providing free information for the busy and signing up free newsletter.

TAC: I don't see any trend, perhaps i'm not good enough. But i thought the declining volume in today's up looks uncomfortable. Could be box range trading.

I sold SunTec

Rotary: Selling seems to have dried up.

Property sector index

Ho Bee: the cheaper property choice for small pocket.