Tuesday, September 22, 2009

STI tries to scale 2700 once again

In the previous 3 attempts, STI failed at 2700. In what looks like a Ascending Triangle, amazingly we are gonna try it for the 4th time. Will it be 4th time lucky? Indeed market has been rather sluggish these days. I rather wait at the lower range then to get caught at the high again. The last sell-off saw me scurrying for cover. This time round, i picked a short long and covered my HSI short position at a loss. I thought i would be killed after 21k broke out, looks like heavens gave me a chance to run and i gladly did so.

Of the list i posted last week, the stock i went long is CDLHtrust. Looks like my luck is changing as it is still near the entry price and slightly into profit. But i ain't gonna count my chicken before it is hatched. I wouldn't even consider getting into a second stock at this level. Market is sideway and i thought it only make sense to buy low in a trend, and if there is no trend, avoid buying at resistance is the least i can do. To me, i still have that thought about a sudden plunge in the market. But market as usual will not listen to me and so if it is still climbing, i shall cautiously thread along.

I am currently keen to observe how those 20-day mas are holding. It is flattening and we are hanging precariously by it in many of the stocks. Of course not all stocks will fall. Selective plays are still doing very well. But i just don't feel confident to go into one as yet. I look at the list of screening results i gotten from XPertTrader... C2O, CH-offshore, Cosmosteel, Des studio, Metro, Mermaid, Falcon...etc.. isn't it a textbook warning of a interim top whenever market is lead by such stocks?

Tonight i received quite a number of signals from property stocks. The last round they lead the first assault on 2700 but failed miserably. Nan dao, tomorrow they gonna try again?

Like i said earlier, i am sticking to just one stock at this level. I do not see those obvious signs of a trend, and i do not see rotational interest. Without those two, odds are against me.

I study with interest the chart on SPH tonight, all signs point to a higher price in coming days. This stock though slow has been very consistently heading higher. I shall continue to observe if it breaks the old high. Especially those stocks which are showing a change in trend, if they turn up successfully, then perhaps my CDL will break higher.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Beware - Do not own the stocks i am eyeing

Tonight I present something that has been missing from this blog for a long time - GrowMoney QuickPicks. Please pay special attention to these stocks because these are the stocks i am eyeing. At this stage, you do not want to hold the same stocks that i am in because i am not at the best of my luck. Thus good luck to you if your stocks is one of the following.... haha

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Ausgrp
BakerTech
CDLHTrust
F&N
China Sky
Epure
JiuTian
LiHeng

Other than F&N, the rest are pennies. I think the play is still in the pennies. The fact that the bluies are not running is still a warning to me. My strategy is to long just one of them.... this first win is what i need to know that i am on the right track. China pennies are particularly cute because of their National holiday is coming and also upon seeing HSI breaking key resistance. Having said that, isn't it wierd? With FTSE and HSI breaking into new highs... Nikkei and Dow still ai mai ai mai....

Bluechips really is lacklustre as we are heading near Mt. 2700... nan dao a big pop up is coming? I was trapped in the shooting star last week when 2700 was pierced. I went on a buying spree in an opinion we go to at least 2750... alas it was not to be and i have to run my longs and suffered a blue-black eye. If we pop up again, i will STILL try! Yeah, the rule of the game is, when i lose, i lose small, when i win i must win big which will cover most of the losses if not all. Thus i cannot miss the next big run either up or down otherwise it tilts my equation. I do not need to sit by the sidelines as i feel i am still healthy to trade. I am still thinking objectively and do not hold on to hopes or losses. I know i need to stand aside if i begin to feel revengeful, despair, hopeless, clueless.

I am still short on HSI and no new positions. I will cut my HSI if we do not see a sharp sell-off over the next few days. Bear divergence leh... nan dao i am so suay until bear divergence also work against me? Did i mention Dow also has one? The CPI surprises on the upside... if it was the old days, the market would have sold off... because it means interest rate hike may be coming... right now Obama keeps saying they won't pull out from the bailout too fast too soon... they say recovery may be weak.... now we are very fragile... so a hike is pretty remote.. or is the market running higher so that it has room to fall because a hike is coming? Are they going to risk inflation?

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Market Tangos Sideway

Market continues to tango sideway with the exception of Property sector still as weak. The morning gap up couldn't sustain and there was no catalyst to spark the sell-off as yet. I couldn't believe my luck when i saw that HSI will resume trading only in the afternoon. Indeed it is a grim reminder to myself to tone down and not be too agressive in trading. Why no typhoon recently and so coincident ah? I opened a position and there u go, HSI morning session closed.

Anyway i am sticking to my short for now as 21k looks to be selling off everytime we trade there. Is it luring shortists? ot is it ready to kill longists? Market seems to be waiting for some news.. the better than expected US retail sales couldn't spark a rally... i need a set of bad jobs data for now on Thursday.. :P


StraitsAsia: MTL level coming up... my idea is to fade the breakout. If wrong, wait for a natural reaction before somersault to long. This is because, after 6 months of non stop rally, market should take a breather by a brutal correction to wash out weak holders. The situation now is, alot of people are adopting a buy and hope style - "When retrace, no problem it will go up"... with more and more such market participants, soon the supply of buyers will dry up as many are vested. Without buyers, the rally can't sustain.


C2O: This one for the brave hearted. With only 2 trading weeks, the volume already looked set to zoom past the previous week's. Either i long at breakout or at weakness i sapu 1st batch and add on upon breakout. Stop loss got to be tight as this stock is obviously CK kind of stock... last one to hold the baby when the music stops lose.... cruelty of such plays.

Another stock worth mentioning will be Chemoil.. This one i like the volume and price behaviour..however i feel it may be nearing it's end soon. Every push has a target price, we as the under privileged will not know. But based on chart, it is still easy to identify entries. Again, this kind of stock, cannot be stubborn when the music stops. If you look at it's chart, it is easy to notice that every big volume days brings about retracement before another push up.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, September 14, 2009

One step at a time


HSI on Daily, Bearish divergence warning and the MTL level on the daily chart. As we are very close to the resistance, i initiated a short position. Some of you may remember i had a short position. Truth be told, in last week's rally to test the 21k resistance, i had covered my short position with a loss. In hindsight, i should have hold. But last week's follow through buying had me fooled into thinking the market may be back to it's rotational best. How naive i was. I no care, both on weekly and daily shout weakness to me and i shall trade accordingly. Once it plunges all those losses will look small.


HSI on the weekly: In what looks like a rising wedge we are seeing a bearish divergence which is a perfect setup for a sell-off. The best part is it should be happening in the next few days. Otherwise it may be invalidated. With the on-going tariffs fight between US and China, all we need is a crazy policy by either side to be the catalyst.


STI: Mount. 2700 looks strong for now. Being resisted 2 times and if we include the end Aug black candle it would be nearly 3 times. Though range bound, i don't like the shooting star with heavy volume on the 10th Sept. It is a warning i must heed. With today's gap down, we may head up to close the gap and after which i may watch if the 20-MA line holds... over the last two occassions, there were whipsaws on this line thus render it's effectiveness as a support useless. I am looking at the 50-day MA for now or otherwise the horizontal low at 2522. Best is to see CS reversal at these two locations or otherwise i remain cautious.

By now we know why the wheels are locked and the wings are tied in the property sector.... the pending announcement already anticipated.. How tricky can this market gets? It's confirmed, it will be more difficult to get a loan to buy private property. Ironically, all the DBSS projects are priced so high... how can a combined income of 8k manage that mortgage? Mana logic? Anyway NS trained me to shout my mouth when it comes to policies.. Like they say the word official has got two mouths. During the sell-off today, i had thrown my Wilmar, DBS, Olam and SC-global picked up last week. I went on a buying spree using the follow through buying as a clue.. however the engine died at the old resistance and i was alarmed by the big volume. As such i had gotten these stocks near their highs, the only sensible thing to do is to get the hell out first and reassess the situation. 4 positions is akind to hoot tua tua.. it didn't workout. Run while the losses is still small.

The heavy volume sell-0ff in property stocks might present a good opportunity. Alot of them are trading near to their 20-day MA line. Break that and we may see more downside. Furthermore there are many bearish divergences around... but i won't short as yet. I had been wrong last week and according to my rules, i should go slow. I am happy if my HSI short makes me some money.... sekidat sekidat jadi bukit... this bukit will comprise of profits for me to risk as well as confidence. Actually it isn't my confidence shaken.. i just feel irritating to not been able to read the market correctly. My focus is not on how much i will make or loss for now, rather, it is important for me to get back the rythem...

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

A sin called complacency

I been analysing what went wrong and how did my 20% returns since early of the year turn flat... one of the most important reason is complacency. Complacency is just a nice ang mo word for laziness. And we know in trading which is a highly intelligent game, one cannot afford to not spend the effort in analyzing. I self sabotaged myself by watching too much TV. I even made it an excuse that i need to balance life and trading to justify being a coach potatoe. How can i expect to build a fortune from trading when i am always catching the latest HongKong Drama Serials? I wasn't like this during the good old days. Every single night i would be looking at charts and Sunday afternoons are spent preparing for the coming trading week leaving only saturday for my ex-girlfriend. If i didn't make money now is because i have deviated from what was working for me. Time to get it all back. It makes sense.... in a positive enviroment, i get positive result. When i am in a dis-empowering mode, mana will make money? This explains my losses.

Following my purchase yesterday of Wilmar, i continued with DBS as part of my game plan. I grabbed DBS while it closed weak. I see today's weak and soft closing as a normal intra week pull back and expect the week to end on a stronger note. Part of my thoughts were on a soft Dow tonight which may lead local bourse to open weaker and thus get DBS cheaper. But who am i to dictate that to happen. Thus what i did was to know my E.S.P (Entry, Stop loss and Profit Target) and continue with the purchase. My next target of purchase will be property stock and may look at a second liner for off-shore services play such as ezra or swiber.. these crazy horses will fly. Remember what i said about wheel lock? That's why you see today, it really did retraced lower than where i have sold. And the China stock, Datang? It closed lower today. Just like mahjung..i feel this china stock falls under a good loss. It really seems unattractive on the charts now. I would rather look at China Coal which is a direct China coal play.

Another scenario i painted is, we close the weak lower. Upon close scrunity of the charts and judging from the follow through buying we got yesterday, this move should have legs. Which means to say, we should at least test the last high. But i do have to be objective and consider what if i am wrong. Then perhaps the market may falls back into the range. The observation of whether the selling is well absorbed is key here.

As for my HSI, i will cut if asia bourses breaks higher with 21k firmly taken out. As by then i think my long positions in stocks are poised to break upwards strongly. I will lose badly if HSI goes up and Singapore market crashes. Can this happen?

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Follow through buying

The moment i have been waiting for has arrived. Follow through buying... once i see this sign, i know what i should do next and i promptly did it. The follow through buying in props caught my attention. No doubt i can buy it in the morning when the market is weak and soft but surely it is the strength in the afternoon that convince me that my opinion is right and thus i can only act upon the latter.

I have took profit on my Wheelock.. just couldn't stand it's turtle pace. The name already said it, i was slow to realise.... Wheel lock... the wheels are locked how to run fast???? Furthermore i didn't grab it near the low and if a retracement happens, i am at a disadvantage. I grabbed Wilmar instead. The fundamentals is without saying - BAGUS! The chartwise, i always like stocks breaking into new highs in bull market because experience tells me, they tend to trade higher and higher. The expensive will always becomes more expensive. Also it is dealing with palm oil. With the collapse of USD, commodities and crude oil tua cheong.. this resulted in palm oil also tua cheong. No doubt central banker will not allow USD to totally become banana notes but i am in no position to guess at which level they will do that. Thus i follow where the market is going for now. Since there is follow through buying, my next anticipation is we go take out the last high in a rotational fashion. This means any dips may be a good chance to load up more. I will be watching volume on retracement days and supports to latch on to props and banks to complete my purchase. It is never wise to overload in one particular sector unless one has privileged information or strong reasons for their convictions on that particular sector.

As for my HSI, gosh... up by more than 1300 points in 3 days??? I couldn't cut today as it is pretty silly to be cutting loss right at resistance. Thus i have decided to bid my time and watch if there is a technical breakout on HSI. The indicators already points to a technical breakout. But i shall not be a smart alec and pre-empts this market. Following my recent loss in form, i need to be patience and carve out a 20% returns first before i resume bigger positions. This is what protecting capital is about. No profit to risk, i trade small.

It's amazing how when i read those trading books about how some traders will encounter the inevitable losing streak and right now i am in the middle of one! The toughest battle i am fighting isn't on the charts... it is with my own emotions.. it feels comforting to go into a self pity state but yet, i know in order to break that losing streak is to remain positive. It is a really unnatural thing to do but do i must. Market never changes, T.A works all the same... it is the individual who is the weakest link.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, September 07, 2009

The feeling of frustrations crept up

It's been a solid 6 weeks since i departed from Trading... or did i? Actually all this while, i have positions in the market. small but definitely vested. During my reservists and also my one week break last week, i still have access to internet and charts, just that, i couldn't be fully online thus only took a mid term view of the market and kept two positions. During last week's sell-off, the drastic decline by SSE spoil my day as i was forced to cover my long positions. Not only that, i had turned short on the HSI with the view that it is gonna see at least 19.4k but i no believe the bull is dead...thus i kept Wheelock long making the short on hsi just a hedge.. As we know by now, not only did the index tua rally, mine is the worse performing out of the property rally today. This seventh month is indeed inauspicious for me. You may think, "ok ma, just lose one position only..." I need to complete this passage with the loss i suffered on Datang Power listed in HKSE. When SSE found support, i went long on this stock with the opinion that the rally will be fierce. Especially since Premiere Wen say no such things as tightening bank's credit. Mana zai market still no confident and had to tua lao before last week's fresh announcement that foreign funds may increase vested interest. The only catch i read was, there is no change to the maximum cap. Just the % so it may mean no fresh money pouring in? Anyway, it's been a eat pork pay dog month for me. Nett nett it is a negative month. Though the loss is contained within my money management rules, but it never feels good to lose. Although this kind of thinking is not healthy and not being objective in trading... i am human afterall. I wonder where did my hardened soul of yester-year went to? I could consistently grow money year after year and even in the super 2008 bear. Surprisingly, i am at this stage flat in my account for the year 2009. I have under performed the benchmark index and this is making me very very unhappy.

Nan dao like the saying goes... as a man ages... so does the guts... Anyway, i shouldn't continue to sulk at what had happened... the past doesn't represent the future. My focus should be on the market and not whinning.

I notice the keen market interest in property stocks today... nan dao the consolidation is over? I am keen to see follow through buying which is sorely missed. Without a catalyst, i find it very tough to make any intelligent guess on the probably direction. As such, it is never wise to make any move until the market shows me. One by one, i want to see the property counters take out their July highs, then i can safely shoot for the banks which is likely to follow through.

Ask me how i miss Genting and many of those high flying stars? I also would like to know. One of the reasons i reckoned was i been badly hurt by then during my early days that i do not feel confident in them anymore. No matter how nice the chart may look, those i never buy will go up, those i buy often comes down.. i dunno why it happens but happen it did to me moons ago. Thus i only focus in stocks more than $1 which is more orderly in it's movement. Especially if there is sector confirmation. The other reason could be, all these happenings now is very familiar. I seem to have traded in this kind of market before... was it 2003? or was it 2004? Like the chinese saying goes, 回忆是痛苦的根原 I been hurt in those years before.. the sexy stocks goes up and down, some retailers make a killing but most got burnt. All this while, the good fundamental stocks steadily climbs higher and if i looked back, SGX was only 1.70 back then for the taking. Believe it or not, i forsake it to trade the likes of bio-treat, junma, chinasun, longcheers.. mistakes are never to be repeated..

Sorry for being long winded... it really feel nice to talk to the invisible me... trading is lonely... with so many possibilities in the market.. i have no convictions of the direction as yet.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.