Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Offshore sails again

Offshore stocks moved again... Interesting... time for me to look at banks and properties.. Remember I did mentioned about sector rotation? It seems like the market may be taking turns to rotate.. The only thing i am cautious about is that the primary trend is a down trend and we ought to pay attention to those resistances overhead. Frankly speaking... i am not really interested in turning long on stocks based on the fundamentals. Hence as of now, even if i have to buy, i won't load up heavy on long positions prefering to be cautious. This is because when the trend turns, it turns very fast these days.

As shared in a blog entry earlier in the month, if i see offshore moves, it may mean the market may head higher. Things i want to see happen, offshore companies break their highs and this is where i will look into property and bank sector for opportunities. Otherwise looking at other sector may not have the right gearing effect.

Volume is slowly creeping higher from 200 million to 600 million.... I think everyone is hoping for next week when the market begins the year 2009. Keep your eyes open to the regional indices for clues.... remember, STI will NEVER lead the global markets.

Happy New Year! Decipher wishes all readers a happy and a bountiful 2009 ahead..... Huat arh!

Thank you for your support all these years, without you, this blog will never be so interesting.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Updates on market directions

The trading volume of the past 2 sessions were light due to the holidays. Any activities on the charts should be ignored. If chart formations is of any use, you should see plenty around. The volume characteristic is very convincing... was it coincidence that the light volume can be attributed to the festive season? Check out the few index charts that i am following:

Hang Seng Index: The ascending triangle pattern is taking form and I should not miss the breakout if it happens. We all know China is working very hard to pump up the economy and boy do they have money... although what they are doing may not immediately solve all the problems, but, it is how market respond to the news/actions by the government in the immediate time frame that matters to me. If the uptrend support cracks, then those 2 previous lows maybe where we can go long.

As for Dow, KLSE, SGX, really... there isn't much to observe about. Even the small pennant on STI is only good as a warning. It is too small and narrow to be of any significant movement. Let us not forget, budget day has been brought forward to Jan'09 and thus it may prop the market higher. I recall back in 2006... when we were having elections... we had a good run up to the election day while the rest of the world tumbled. After election day, STI made up for it's absence by jumping off the cliff like a bird without wings... This may be something to watchout for.

Oh by the way, 29th and 30th will be ChartNexus company off-days. We will be taking 2 days off to have fun and party hard.....of course those good food as well! keke Hence i will only check-in here at night. No matter how late... i will try my best to analyse the market... this is important to me. Because i want to make it a habit to blog. The lazy bug in me may manifest if i stop for just a day. I won't give it a chance!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Thursday, December 25, 2008

Takeaways from Traders Club

I closed my positions on StraitsAsia as well as Yanlord after they both hit my profit targets and didn't go down further. Hence i'm on the hunt for the next profitable opportunity. At the Traders Club Christmas Party... we went through the following observations, STI has a bearish pennant, Offshore seems to be supported... and of all the banks, OCBC has the best risk/reward... Cosco & KS energy looks to be forming a base... Guys, it isn't the stock picks that made Traders club a must-attend event... it is the how to analyse that is more important and valuable. Just like what i told a prospect... he told me no money, win first then attend training... a friend of mine R said the same thing... The customer after hearing just one important sentence from me, became a customer. How many more thousands are u going to lose before you give up? He got stuned... he must be thinking, how come i knew... of course i knew! i have been through it myself. If you don't know something, you ought to learn... how can u say let me find a lawyer job first before i study law... let me jump into the water first before i learn how to swim...

Offshore movement is key here, if they start another leg up, do watchout for banks and properties again... Friday's closing my set tone for last trading week of the year. Christmas Eve's closing may not mean anything as the volume is very light to have any significance.

I did something which i haven't been doing regularly for the longest time... that is to give back to society. I intend to do it in 2 forms... my time as well as monetary... I had been too caught up with the little noise in my head....why am i not making loads of money... why am i so busy... why my life so miserable... i think the infrequent updates on this blog clearly shown that i have not been myself for most of 2008. The Decipher that went into a coma.... but i'm back! Trust me when i say i am enjoying sharing and trading all over again... huat arh! By the way, the ultimate graduates gathering should be during Chinese New Year.... keep a lookout!

To continue on my "give"... i shall help as many people as possible through my analysis of the stock market here in this blog as well as the graduates of ChartNexus at our events and at the graduates only forum. As for Monetary, i am giving to the charity of my choice Children's Cancer Society of Singapore. : ) Since i have the ability to trade successfully, i shall do my bit to make this planet a better place for the less fortunate. Gosh... kids... they are really an innocent bunch to be suffering.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

The loving feeling....

Ah.... the loving feeling is back.. the sweet profit from HSI sent me to cloud nine... my patience paid off handsomely when it went down to more than 1000 points in 2 days. Ahh... the last time i had a wonderful time trading HSI was in 2006.... back then i was using warrants and this time round, i used CFD which is a better instrument to use than warrants. This is because using warrants, we need to pay attention to strike price, premium, theta and delta... CFD simply bet up or down.

Since the trading week is short, i shan't increase my position in stocks. Rather, i may look to long or short on the index for the immediate term. My screening reveals that the volume traded today is still very light. Even in the forex market, currencies are moving in a tight range... this is almost the last week of the year, perhaps many traders have closed book for the year. Watch what happens after Christmas... it should set the tone for the last week of the year and any spillover to January should be scrutinised.

Decipher wishes you a Merry Christmas and a huat huat good time in the market!

Christmas is a time to share and care. I have chosen to donate my well wishes to the Children Cancer Society. Though the amount is not big, ahh well... since universe bestowed me the ability to trade and inspire, i have to give back in return. If the purpose of life is to add value to other people's life... it's a rich feeling!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, December 22, 2008

DBS Scare

The rights issue by DBS inflicted damage to the morale. The worse part is i just blew away my position because of the sudden trading halt. Remember i was beoing DBS at $9... my sell stop has been there getting ready for such a day... mana zai, shortly after lunch, i was told DBS issue rights and the stock price has plunged. I logged on and thought this time tua ho say... i remembered telling myself not to be greedy and must cover back because for CFD, i ain't sure about the implication from a rights issue. HOWEVER!!! by the time i logged on, my buy stop was triggered and the system had taken my loss on DBS when it trades higher after the gap down. What a big disppointment otherwise it was a great day for me!

My shorts swing into profits with HSI leading the way with a 500 points tank. When i saw capitaland tanks, i think i am more than right about the direction of the market and procastinated on adding to my shorts. I hold back. This is a short trading week and volume is expected to be light and thus the market can swing either way wildly. I already have 3 short positions and i don't feel safe adding to my shorts.

Midas came out from the screening result. and my sentiment screen tells me the trading volume today is suspiciously light. Not a time to be too bearish.... but still i would like to know why HSI was gunned down maliciously.... although not that i am complaining.. keke

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Automobile's rescue plan priced in

Alot of us may have forgotten that after the senate rejected the bailout for the big 3, bush already came out and said he will do his best to save them. The market first tanked after news leaked out about how the big 3 may run out of cash. Then bush's assurance came and that saved the bulls. I know because i was short the market... maddening!! hahaha Hence last Friday's rescue plan didn't send the market into a rally.... i could understand why. Just look at the news, isn't it easy? When market goes up, it will give bullish reasons, when it comes down, it will say market again focuses on economic woes. As a friend of mine put it.... financial world is actually an illusion, you choose to see what you want to see.... hahaha

At closing on Friday, i added Yanlord short after I spotted the shooting star on the daily chart as well as resisted by the 100-day MA. My opinion of a weak closing was right and thus i follow through with my plan. Anyway a screen by XPertTrader revealed that properties are hitting into resistance. Hence i have a total of 3 short positions in the market right now.... StraitsAsia, Yanlord & HSI. My wish for Monday morning is that Nikkei focuses on the weak closing and the rally which fizzled out on Dow.

A friend checked with me almost daily on "have i covered my straitsasia". Maybe he is reading this entry. keke I explained.... let ur profits ride and cut ur losses fast. This process has been internalised. That's why you see i rather cut my capitaland rather fast and now since i am in profits, i ride. My rationale is, if i am right about the direction, StraitsAsia will continue to go lower which means my profit will swell. If i am wrong, i earn less. If i just take my profits just because it has went to my favour today then how to grow money? Alot of times, i have seen people trading by the day... buy today, tomolo up just sell... then come down a little, buy... then stuck... then avg down... then continue to get stuck... ahhh.... if this is familiar to u... then it's time u wake up.. keke Focus on DIRECTION rather than daily fluctuations. Intra-day is even worse.... countless of people keep asking me about live data... i found it wierd... if these people has been making consistently good money from end of day data... why don't they imrpove on their position sizing and money mgmt instead? Why do they want to take more risk by trading intra-day? It's worse if they believe money can only be made in intra-day charts than daily charts. Alexander Elder in his book wrote about it before.... those who can't manage daily chart will be slaughtered by the intra-day charts.


Capitaland

6pm now... i am counting down to a brand new week! Huat arh! So far so good... ever since i started to work hard... pocket also grew... keke Haiyo.... why i so lazy for the past few months??? Maybe can tan more! keke Actually blogging not bad ma... can share my trading experience and try to help as many beginners as possible...then at the same time, by writting, i am actually re-inforcing my thoughts. It is easy to think inside the head, but if you write it down, it's a completely different feeling. Try it! such is trading... there will bound to be losses... there will be wins.. now i'm in high spirit... haha last few weeks.. when i keep losing... so frustratings... Welcome to the world of trading!


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Properties back in favour

Properties counters staged a strong rally today. However not all of them has got good volume. Fundamentals are still bad without saying... but technically indeed they were attractive... attractive to short! haha Many of them broke out of resistance...but they are close to MA resistances. Then when to long? AT THE RETRACEMENT! In a bullish trend, they are called retracement, otherwise it;s called reversal... just got to be patience and keep observing. Look? who cares if you can buy at rock bottom? This is not how the game is played. I never got Cosco at below $1... i got it at $1.31 and rode it to $3++ .... I didn't get Swiber less than $1... infact i bought at $1.23 and rode it all the way to $3++ It's the direction that i am more obsessed with. For i know, once the direction is clear... it's easy to make money! Those who gave up and think they come back when the trend returns often gets in too late....and lose all the money when the trend turns against them... those who faithfully do their homework will be rewarded.

I did not add to my shorts as i observed many stocks didn't go down much. No doubt StraitsAsia went down alot from where i shorted, but nevertheless i cannot ignore the bottoming actions seen in many other charts and that of indices. Even currencies, i seen many of the major pairs seem to have broken the downtrend on the daily chart. Hence, i am sticking to only one short on StraitsAsia and then another short on HSI to bet the week will close negative. Year-end dressing this time round may dress like beggar maybe?

Another observation is sector rotation.... offshore took the runup last few weeks.. and this week many already stopped advancing.. If you look at Yangzijiang... wah the bearish divergence damn obvious... hence this round the properties sector rallies.... hmm... after the rotation... market go holland?


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Market lukewarm to Ben's cut

Dow overnight jubilant closing failed to inspire Asia. Now, what i am most frustrating about is how goldman and JPMorgan failed to drag market lower. They reported losses! Again CPI data came in worse than expected. Yet market remains non-chalent to these... Ben has cut more than expected and market responded... or did it. If we look at Asia today, we opened up... then drift lower as thoughts about profit taking tonight prompted traders to book profits. However Nikkei and HSI closed higher in the afternoon.... ahh... always good to see market close higher at closing..

For me, step A has happened, that is Ben's cut rate, it should spur market on... however it didn't today, so instead of B happening, C is likely to happen.. C would be a pull back. To see pull back, i need to observe if broadbased stocks are coming off their resistances... i know many bank shares are off their highs.. hence if i start seeing one by one they start to appear... *dang dang dang*

YanLord: Bottomed?

No results from screening tonight... however at ChartNexus Traders Club tonight, we identified 6 stocks for trading. Tomorrow i shall see if there is any opportunities. For graduates who can't turn up, we will post it on the graduates-forum.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, December 15, 2008

"Did you sell StraitsAsia?"

Concerned friends checked with me, did i sell my StraitsAsia. Of course not, i intend to stick to my game plan. How can someone keep changing plans from day to day? What i am eyeing is significant levels. How market trades at significant levels will tell me where is the market likely to head towards. I have seen friends who trade in and out very frequently and often because the tide changes intra-day or from day to day. This type of trading will result in many small wins.... but 1 lose is good enough to wipe out those small wins. Got to think in longer time frame man.

Anyway, tuesday will see Ben meeting.. i shall keep to my short on StraitsAsia and wait to see how the market reacts to the outcome.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
CT1-short KS energy


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Dow refuses to head lower

Much to my dismay, Dow had refused to head lower. I had to cover my Dow short before i went to bed when govt came out to assure investors that they will find another alternative to save the auto mobile industry. Actually, it is better they save it as the implication may be worsed than lehmann. What about Madoff? Simply amazing.... I wonder how many rich people will be affected. If there are any implications to the economy? The econs numbers last week was as i anticipated... BAD. Hence i shorted... but once again, the resilience of the bulls saved the day as we close higher from lower. In theory, this is a text book market bottom where market ignores the bad news. But how far can this rally runs? Actually i give it 3-month shelf life or the 50-day MA or 100-day MA whichever comes first. After the third month i will turn cautious. Otherwise, i will be eyeing those resistance levels. Fed's meeting on Tuesday may be why the market is holding up. Currencies are breaking recent highs and surely on an uptrend. hmm... what's the impact of a rate cut? How will market take it? Given that we refuse to head lower. Chances are Fed will once again cut.. inorder for market to crash, i think a rate hike or unchanged or one of the car companies collapse will rock the market.






The picture on the left is a snap-shot from the new ChartNexus Training Center....conducive for those weekend classes... i think the feng shui is good, as ever since we moved, we had 3 months of sell-out courses. This new training center will also be the place where our traders club members meet. By making this investment in training facilities, all graduates from the program will have a place to gather. Like i said, i want to help as many people as i can. Either through the blog, ChartNexus forum or directly at those traders club meeting. I want to show you how easy it is to be done by sharing my thoughts and my experience.


I am also planning to meet all the old graduates way back from 2006 to 2007 Dec. There are approximately 500 of you out there whom i may have disconnected. Rest assured i forget you not... the latest course rules will be shared in a seminar where i will personally teach you on the direct applications. Just wait for my email invitation.






The favourite question i was asked recently was, is this the market bottom? Is it safe to buy now. My answer is, i don't know. How would anyone know? Even Alan greenspan said he didn't see the current financial meltdown coming...Bufett never buy at the exact bottom. And me? I'm just deciper.. your friendly neighbourhood blogger. My method is simple and consistently i have been practising it. I seek inspiration from Jesse Livermore and of course a friend whom i looked upon as mentor. Remember what did Livermore said? Ask not where the market is heading... but ask yourself, what will you do when the market gets there. Those following my blog for the longest time should find this phrase familiar... i keep talking about this since 2006. What it meant was, you must form an opinion about the market, like if A happens, B should happen, and when B happens, i hoot... then when C happens, i cut my loss or if D happens i ride my profits or if E happens I take my profits and look elsewhere. Those looking for a sure win method aka the holy grail.. you will be massively disappointed! As those of us who make money from the market knows that losses are part and parcel of the game and this is how the game is played. Lose small and win BIG! Am i worried about my Short on StraitsAsia? Hell no! If that position turn against me, it only means one thing to me, the market is going to head higher... otherwise, if market turns down from here, i will add more shorts... if market break the 52-week low, hailoya... i will hoot tua tua..


From my strategies screening, i have got 3 sell signals based on the trend-trading strategies.... guess what? I won't take the sell signals! Simply because the primary criteria is not met... and what is it?? THIS IS NOT A TRENDING MARKET! Simple! From ADX and the price range, we are in a range trade, and using a trend trading strategy now is like throwing money into the drain. In the course, we teach you when to use what strategy and this is very important!




Saw the sticks? They were actually broken arrows. This is what they call breaking the arrow using the throat...or rather the soft spot under-neath it. This was taken at the seminar i went to before i went for my holidays. A paradigm shift. I knew i need to sought inspiration... i tried to tell myself to aim for big money in trading... ahh... that should motivate me... but it only last a few weeks...then i found what i want... i want to inspire people! Each year, i will continue to learn from the gurus and experts... as the saying goes, the day you stop growing, u start dying.


That is why you see that i am blogging so much and sharing my thoughts on trading... On the left is how my late night "taxi-driving" looks like.. I hope they produce monitors that are at least 1 meter in length in the future... then spare me looking at 3 screens.. Why do i call it taxi driving? Back in the late 90s where many professionals got retrenched and many turned to taxi driving to make a living... some hold two jobs and driving taxi was a part time.... i was trading the new york market which is easily past 12 mdnight hence i termed it taxi driving... on good nights, can close shop as early as 1am.. bad nights... 3am....


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Friday, December 12, 2008

My trading plan going forward is to ...

Finally intra-week weakness. The STI closed lower than open. It is time for the retracement to happen. However as it is Friday tomorrow, if it closed too ugly, well, the bullish rally may be over. Friday night will have alot of data coming out from the US. It may become a reason to sell down. Asia closing may provide clue. For now, i will initiate a short position first if the market is weak tomorrow. STI is hitting into 50-day resistance. We have yet cross the all important 1917 level. If the pull back is shallow, it means it's a healthy retracement. But of course we need to study the broadbase market and see are they trading at support or resistance. These are important clues. The XPertTrader rule i'm using to screen for this important clue is the volume rule i created since 2006. I used to call it the sentiment screen back in those days.

I seen a big jump in blog visitors since i returned to active sharing. Welcome back my friends! : ) I will try my best to contribute and hopefully it is helpful to you. If you have friends whom once fell in love with this blog, tell them, the owner of this blog is back. They should return and let us all grow money together!

GrowMoney Quickpick
StraitsAsia - CT1-short strategy
FSL Trust - ST1-short strategy

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Who let the BULL out?

In chinese i would have called it 牛气冲天! Wah... I was speechless by the power of the bull that hit Asian market. Dow slammed lower but Asia opened weak and then the bulls took over and drive us to close high. Beautiful and this bullishness has not been seen for months. As beautiful as it is, i wasn't part of the party as i have no long position. Infact i just cut my Capitaland yesterday and then had to scramble to take my profit on the AscendasReits short. With STI taking out the previous high, it's a very positive sign. However, pretty disappointed that the intra-week weakness was not present. Looks like dips in the morning is a good chance to buy already.

The transition period from bear to sideway to bull may be here. The next sell signal will be a tell tale sign. The plan is, if the stock doesn't goes down, it is a healthy retracement in an uptrend.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Technical Ascending Triangle on Hang Seng Index


Hang Seng Index: ADX showing change of trend, if little green line ticks up upon breakout of resistance, it may signal an ascending triangle breakout.... S-shares where are u!!!!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Burning questions answered

Today i shall share answers to the burning questions on my recent trades because i have at least 3 friends who asked the same questions. So I thought i might as well share why i did what i done.


Capitaland: Firstly i must admit my entry price was a big big mistake. If you look at the chart, i was buying in the middle of resistance and support. From general market movement, the possibility of breaking to the downside wasn't great, hence my view was Capitaland's support should hold. Hence i hold onto Capitaland and went short Ascendas reits, SIA engrg and Amazon Inc. Today Capitaland went up and was within 5 cents to my entry at 2.74 but SIA engrg and Amazon stop loss were triggered. Only Ascendas reits went lower near closing. With 30 mins to closing, I close my capitaland position for a loss and keep my ascendas short. Question number 1, why did I square off my long position despite the possibility of the market may head higher? The primary reason being, I didn't get Capitaland at a good price, look at my entry, it sucks big time and look like an amateur trade. So why did i buy in the first place? LAZINESS! I casually looked at the market and "think" it may head higher. That's why you see why am i suddenly so active in blogging and trading. I forgotten a simple fact, to make money, efforts must be there. How to retire young if I trade on laziness??? Secondly, Dow has been up for many days and trading near resistance. Probability of a retrace is higher than a rally. Hence if Dow pulls back, high chance Capitaland may open lower with the possibility of closing higher. This will give me a better chance to buy lower. Infact i am waiting for intra week weakness in an uptrend. on the indices. That to me is the safest time to buy into stocks. Avoid stocks trading too near to resistance. Hence market gives me a chance to run at small loss, i gladly take it.... because....read on....


My ascendas reits short is sitting on a 17 cts profit. If Dow goes down tonight, tomorrow it will open lower and trade lower. Judging from the volume today... MASSIVE selling. It is a bad sign for more downside to come. Then it became simpler. Because with such a massive selling, it should continue tomorrow, if it recovers tomorrow, i will anticipate a bear flag/pennant, if it does, it offers an excellent opportunitiy to add on to the shorts. Otherwise, i'm content to see it heads lower. With capland's long squared off, this is where my profit will run.

My stop loss for SIA Engrg and Amazon inc was triggered. No regrets as this is good loss. Both counters went significantly higher after my loss was triggered. Even as of now, with Dow and Nasdaq trading significantly lower, Amazon is still above my selling price. SIA Engrg is worth to follow because it's at this resistance level that i cannot resist. Furthermore, fundamentally... what's there to rally about?

So nett nett did i make money? As of now, YES! small though... i am not complaining because i could have lost more on the silly capland trade which i shouldn't have taken. Hence to have traded out of trouble and end up with a small profit, i am content. Now with only a profitable short position, i am hungry for the next trade.

I am looking for intra-week weakness to long in a bullish uptrend. For this to happen, i must see support and selling well absorbed.

No results from strategy screening. I heard some graduates have been complaining about no results from screening. The rules are stringent which means, higher probability. If anyone wants signals everyday, it means everyday i can have a rule that screens out more than 20 stocks and of which only a handful will be right. This kind of strategy will result in alot of small losses and then a few big win. Not many people will have the apitude to stand those small losses. How about you win lose half the time but when you are right, you make more? Which one in the longer term is beneficial to the psychology and the pocket? You reckon.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, December 08, 2008

Market heads higher despite bad numbers

A worse than expected job losses shook the market during the early trading hours but as the clock winds down, it made a spectacular U-turn to close higher. The support at 8150 hold ground. I was all ready to short more should we close below this level... I guess the automobile bail out gave some hope that most of the jobs will be saved. 8834 will be my next resistance...with a view of a stronger resistance at the round number 9k.

Looking at HSI, 15,200 to 15,800 level is where i will pick my fight. This is the resistance in which i shall wait patiently for a CS reversal. I am using daily chart here. Should HSI turns bullish or bearish from this point for a Christmas selldown or rally, the banks or insurance companies should move in tandem... using CFDs, my options are unlimited.

As for STI, as wierd as it looked, the whole week we were actually trading in a very tight range. It seems to me like something is going to happen soon. There could be more positives than negatives here as the market didn't go down on bad news. Tricky isn't it? 2 weeks ago, i saw the same strength and long capitaland only to see market tanked on me. In the same week, i hedged with Ascendas reits and on last Friday, increase my stable of shorts with SIA Engrg short. My plan is, if market were to go on a Christmas rally, I will lift my shorts and ride capland to 3.27 and this should give me a nett profit. However, if market tanks, my short positions will hedge my long on capland. The logic is simple, because when the market comes down, it moves faster. I added a short on Amazon again after it opens weak and trades lower. The only scenario that can kill my plan is the market trades sideway and not going anywhere.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
SGX: Kepcorp CT1 strategy


DISCLAIMER: The content in this website is for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Friday, December 05, 2008

SGX Growmoney quickpicks

SGX Growmoney quickpicks
Raffles education
SIA Engrg Co.
DBS

The above stocks may be interesting to watch today. With the ang mo platform, it becomes easy to just enter sell stops and buy stops. haha then can work in peace.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Thursday, December 04, 2008

Technically the stock charts look weak

HL Asia is the only stock that came out from the course strategy screening tonight. But looking at risk/reward, it doesn't favour a short. Hence i am going to give it a miss. I do hope the course graduates can also see that the risk/reward to short HL Asia is poor and thus give it a miss. My main worry is due to greed some of them may just short without considering risk/reward. Screener only picks up technical buy/sell signals, the risk/reward have to be assessed by the trader.

AscendasReits which was picked up by the screening two nights ago came down and closed at the last low of 1.16. From the volume traded, it looks likely that this level will be broken tomorrow and technically we can add to position.

Capitaland is fast becoming a high alert in my head. Somehow it felt like an alarm is going off inside the head. I have to becareful here incase it turns out to be a Descending triangle. How do i get out of this shit? One of the option i am seriously considering is to somersault my long position into a short position. Even the STI looks to be a Descending triangle if we break the last low. Awas to all long positions. If anything, unless we close higher on Friday, otherwise i am quite bearish on the market. The slew of US data will surely rock the market.

As for US stocks, after stopped out of my Amazon, this stock tonight rallied to nearly $50. It further reinforce me to be discipline and never trade without a stop loss. Otherwise tonight i will have to change the featured video to "Lang zi sin sheng".

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

A peek into US Market Stock picks

6 hours to market open and from the XPertTrader screening results, i have the following stocks under microscope. My last trade on amazon triggered stop loss. Dow unexpectedly rally despite bad data. Nevertheless, tonight i'm working overtime again to grow money.

CT1-Long Strategy
THS
HRL

TT1-Short Strategy
IBKR


DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Crawling my way out of the rut



This week is supposed to be volatile due to lots of data coming out from the US. A quick check on the Dow revealed that the there was a bullish divergence in macd histogram and this tells me that there is a possible rally coming up. The 600 points drop on Monday is as bearish as it seems but i do not rule out the fact that a bottom is being hammered out. If we don't go test the November low, chances are we break above 9k in December. I see RSI is going to challenge the resistance soon. I will be observing that and use that as an indication of where is the likely direction.


I wrote about how i got into a losing streak after my holidays. How do i deal with this morale dampening moment? My plan is to trade smaller size than usual. This serve 2 purposes, number 1, i can slowly gain back my momentum and increase the size when the winning streak begins. Number 2, if i continue on this losing streak, i won't hurt my capital. To stop trading totally is avoiding... which to me is the loser way. I looked back at those losing trades and realise the mistake i made. I was too complacent and lazy. I took signals easily and was too eager to make money and that lead me to choose my trades loosely. The discipline must return if i were to go back to winning ways. By the way, as far as i remember, my last losing streak was actually way back in 2006 if my memory serve me correctly.


Trades i made today plus last night incude a short position in Amazon Inc and Ascendas Reits. Both stocks triggered my TT2 short sell screening rule. Amazon is listed in Nasdaq, i am using CFD to trade which is so much simpler and easy as compared to options which i used to do. Placing the trade is relatively easy as i am already familiar with the platform. No need to choose strike price, check IV and stuffs... how cool can it be? I said i am going to hunt for all sorts of money making opportunities and i mean it. It's time i fund my lifestyle from trading. With the petroleum price decreasing and the COE coming down, it is tempting to buy a car... but i'm still resisting it unless neccessary. Somehow quite silly as i spend most of my time infront of the computer trading and charting... I don't even mind taking MRT as i can read my book during the long journey... otherwise where to find time to read or think about strategies? Anyway, i'm still holding on to my capitaland. As for the only stock pick by TT2 last night, it really came down. I hope tonight Amazon join Ascendas to head south. keke


Today i got my staff to sort out participants whom i have coached since 2006. Gosh the number is astonishing. I'm itching to organise a seminar just for these folks as they made my dreams possible. Without their support in the old days, i wouldn't have left my IT job and own a business, T.A author and trading full time. Along the years, we have fine tuned the course training and now finally came out with 6 screening strategies that made trading so much simpler. People used to ask me why i no longer conduct seminars. I feel flattered when some of the old participants are still asking about me. The truth is, with a team of trainers, we can achieve so much more. In 2008, while my team of trainers have taken my role of training, i have been working on trading strategies and how to improve the technical analysis training sessions. Most importantly, we have established a sound after-course support commited to help graduates.

For those of you who are trading US stocks, i am re-starting my engine... so the growmoney quickpick list will come soon... give me some time to find back my midas touch. : ) Best is Amazon go to $35!

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.

Monday, December 01, 2008

A loser speaks

Look this way if you want to see how a loser is throwing money away in the stock market. Capland looked destined to be my third consecutive loss since i came back from my holidays. Though small, i don't like to lose. It made me look stupid and not respecting money. Though i know i have the ability to win, but i am human afterall.... sometimes just need to bitch about it. I recalled reading some trading books, where they talk about a bad stretch of losses is common to any trader, i think i have hit onto one. Just when i am so motivated to create wealth and abundance, i hit into this barren spell.

The worse part is, while i am undergoing this bad spell of "gong tao", I just had a little disagreement with my significant other. I shall spill the beans right here, let's see when she will ever discover this post and ask me to remove. haha Now, it all started because of choosing holidays pictures to develop and file nicely in a photo album. Sound silly isn't it to start a little argument because of this? She wanted me to decide if we are going to develop 50 or 100 pictures because the coupons she gotten is very cheap, hearsay 0.15 only for a pic. Now the thing is, they are going to expire soon and if we don't use it, she intends to give some away to friends. So she asked if we can choose the photos right now? I rejected citing i have got to study the markets and choosing pictures will take at least 1 hour. Then came the justice bao face... but the funny thing is, she knows i needed the time and hence cannot be angry with me, yet at the same time she is feeling very pissed off! keke There is a common understanding about how i need my time after marriage.. there you go... because of 50 pictures, is it worth all the negative aura in the house? Welcome to marriage life for you singles out there! haha The thing is, for me, i don't mind letting her choose what pictures she wants to develop so it makes my life simpler, but for her, it will be so sweet to choose the pictures together... Men are from mars, women are from venus. Hence i always say, it is important to seek alignment with your loved ones if you are a trader... otherwise like today, i needed time to internalise the losing streak and still need to be understanding to her. Who's there for me at a time like this? .... My trusted blog....

Hence in order not to sleep in the living room, i have to stop here for today. Check back again for market analysis.

To all the married men, cheers!

P.S if you see the contents of this post modified, it means i have to sleep on the sofa for a few days... Market bless me.

DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.