As many would have guessed, how can there be no bailout plan? The bailout plan is 90% complete pending approval now. The market took a double blow when another big bank ought to sell some assets to Citi and then over at europe side, a couple of banks have to be rescued. This is evidence that the credit crunch has spread.... all we need is one such case in Asia and we might see more blood. Even HK dai kor HSI also ozzes blood today... 4% hor... no joke. My view of a short term rebound due to the bail out package seems to be too optimistic. Even the bullish divergence looks to be negated by the selling today. But! As we draw closer to the previous low, the better.... coz' technically a bottom formation may be formed.
Currently i am enjoying the ang mo platform alot... it gives me so much options! I am both into stocks and forex and index... wah if not for my limited brain cells, i would have monitored commodities too!
Continue to hold Synear... what i need is tainted dumpling over here! keke
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Buffett's US$5B inspired Asia
Asia opened positive and closed higher encouraged by Buffett's overnight US$5B purchase of goldman sachs. I was stopped out of my S&P long overnight. Did i turn long? Not yet... i still ain't see resistance broken yet. The way where market fell from resistance with high volume yesterday may suggest strong hands unloading. To be sure, the next time we are at resistances, the selling will come with heavy volume yet again.
Friday is the dateline of the bailout plan. Currently the market is undecided with neither the bulls nor the bears dare to take much risk. The bailout plan can cause the market to swing either way.... i am keeping a lookout and watching how market is anticipating the move.
Again most of the prices are in the middle of nowhere, during this volatile times, it is prudent to wait for the price at significant levels.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Friday is the dateline of the bailout plan. Currently the market is undecided with neither the bulls nor the bears dare to take much risk. The bailout plan can cause the market to swing either way.... i am keeping a lookout and watching how market is anticipating the move.
Again most of the prices are in the middle of nowhere, during this volatile times, it is prudent to wait for the price at significant levels.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Bulls tried but failed
Isn't it scary? The wild wild swing continue after an unexpected triple digit loss in wall street. I read this selling as a dangerous sign. Reason being, it could be strong hands unloading at pop up in a typical bear market. A clear sign will be another test of this level, and the stock refuse to move up with heavy volume. This is where i will try to initiate short positions. Otherwise, i will see how the pull back is trading and look for opportunities to go long. Even SGX is getting tougher with naked shortists. I hope they leave CFDs alone... otherwise we will be like KLSE and JSX... can only long and not short.
Currently i long a S&P contract at 1220 level. If i am right, i will see 1250 soon before 1280... Synear short looks safe for now, and anyupside, i think will be capped. Despite the tainted milk scandal, ChinaMilk is still resilient. I wonder why hasn't it been a shortist target? Or isit because it is too obvious?
As for local stocks, i am still looking at marine sector to have a go.... a pity, Cosco went for a diving trip way too early... This week we will have a couple of key econ data which can move the market. It is also important to observe market's reaction to the data.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Currently i long a S&P contract at 1220 level. If i am right, i will see 1250 soon before 1280... Synear short looks safe for now, and anyupside, i think will be capped. Despite the tainted milk scandal, ChinaMilk is still resilient. I wonder why hasn't it been a shortist target? Or isit because it is too obvious?
As for local stocks, i am still looking at marine sector to have a go.... a pity, Cosco went for a diving trip way too early... This week we will have a couple of key econ data which can move the market. It is also important to observe market's reaction to the data.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Grand Stand Finish
Now even US ban shorting 799 US banking stocks following UK's actions. China declare they will buy the 3 main bank stocks with their funds. Read the news, so many pieces of news suggest the government will not let the banking system fails and rightly so. Remember i was also a shortist, but i gladly give up some profits and cheer this intervention by strong hands. Really, so what if i make from my shorts and see world economy goes down? Let's hope with Paulson's 700B proposal, the rut can stop and let us recover from there.
Short term wise, no doubt there will be a rally, any weakness looks like a buy to me. But one must be nimble. I will be wary for any strong hands distributing on the way up. The positive divergence adds strength to this rally. So when to buy? What to buy? I still prefer to wait for a pull back before deciding. Surely i will not short stocks for now. If the world is working hard to make it happen, either you join them, or you get the hell out of their way!
I covered my noble shorts on Friday and keep my synear short. The profits from the recent short positions will allow me to sit on synear until proven wrong.
2 Oct is the date where the ban on shorting will be lifted. Guys, remember now, supply and demand. Now they have ban shorting, it means they are tightening supply, demand will drive stocks up. But my point is, if everyone is buying and buying and price goes higher and higher... who is selling to them? There maybe an avalanche of selling once we tip the scale on the demand side.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Short term wise, no doubt there will be a rally, any weakness looks like a buy to me. But one must be nimble. I will be wary for any strong hands distributing on the way up. The positive divergence adds strength to this rally. So when to buy? What to buy? I still prefer to wait for a pull back before deciding. Surely i will not short stocks for now. If the world is working hard to make it happen, either you join them, or you get the hell out of their way!
I covered my noble shorts on Friday and keep my synear short. The profits from the recent short positions will allow me to sit on synear until proven wrong.
2 Oct is the date where the ban on shorting will be lifted. Guys, remember now, supply and demand. Now they have ban shorting, it means they are tightening supply, demand will drive stocks up. But my point is, if everyone is buying and buying and price goes higher and higher... who is selling to them? There maybe an avalanche of selling once we tip the scale on the demand side.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Central bankers rescue the market yet again
Sinking my bum onto the sofa, CNBC blasting away on TV, today i choose my battle ground in the living room. All i am interested from the news now is facts and not opinons from analysts or gurus. If you realise, non of them saw AIG or Lehman coming.....As a trader, it is our job to observe how the market is reacting to the facts and that is how we formulate trading ideas. This will ensure we will be in control when chaos breakout. Remember i was liquidating my short positions as the market head lower to avoid risk as i see the probability of a rebound higher than going lower. Look, unlike a bull market, when the market tanks too fast too furious, there is always a risk of government intervention. While they can let the market rise all it wants, but when it comes to going down, they are not going to sit aside and do nothing. Just like how Fed had to save AIG and giving up Lehman. A shortist's nightmare is when strong hands come in and squeeze the air out of them!
This is the second time central bankers pump in money to stabilise financial markets. It only goes to show how bad the situation is. It is already one year and we are just as bad if not worse off as compared to one year ago when this subprime mess first headlined. Back to my covered shorts before the crash, if i have another chance with the same situation, i probably do the same. My profit target had reached, i had to adjust my exposure. Although all along my analysis is we are going down, but i never saw this big crash coming to be honest. Question now is, what to do going forward? I know exactly where i am going to short again.... i also know what to look out for if this is a bottom and exactly where i will long. Remember my ang mo shifu said, "Ask not where the market is heading but what are you going to do when the market gets there". So do i feel sad now that i have miss the big crash because i covered my dow too early? I am in this business too long to be affected by all these. The idea is to stay profitable consistently. I am quietly happy to be surviving this bear market as compared to the one in year 2001 where i became a "forced" investor. I think the worse kind of market participant is the kind who win in bull market and then lose it all in a bear market.... year after year.
Yes, i was making money profiting from the downside. But it was not as happy as when i was profiting from a bull market. My mind wanders to my dad's description of how during the last financial crisis, people were queing up at ATM to withdraw all the money for fear of bank collapse. I was probably too young to realise the impact at that time. But now even as i stare at the bearish chart of DBS, i am happy to see a shorting opportunity but at the same time, what if i am right and DBS really go down big time and come out in the news with bad exposure to Lehman and more? My paltry profit is nothing compare to a total financial breakdown which will affect everyone around me. I cannot see myself cheering for a total annihilation of banking sector. Just like when the hurricane was blowing accross US, i was short Dow & HSI... i was so happy that the wind is destructive...my profits in my short positions grew as the wind blew stronger. I was actually cheering for a powerful disaster. Inhuman, people's homes were destroyed, lives were lost, and here i am cheering just because i am making money out of this natural disaster. I feel wierd. Hence, although i know no matter how they try to bail out, the damage is done, but i support any efforts to stabilise the market for the good of everyone. Stock market is the first level of leverage in the financial arena, if it crashes, it will cause a domino effect.
Today's miracle is something familiar to Aug'07. Then, Fed decreased the discount coupon rate. Market then rally for 2 months before crashing. This time round it will be useful to know where the resistances are and get your CFD ready once again. Over the last 2 days, i was so tempted to short more in the market. I had to hold myself from commiting. I checked the charts, we are too far away from resistances for any good risk/reward trade and the market has tanked too much and may rebound....surely i don't want to be a squeezed shortist.
This market, in chinese, i only have these to say: 不死也受重伤，医好也是残废。
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
This is the second time central bankers pump in money to stabilise financial markets. It only goes to show how bad the situation is. It is already one year and we are just as bad if not worse off as compared to one year ago when this subprime mess first headlined. Back to my covered shorts before the crash, if i have another chance with the same situation, i probably do the same. My profit target had reached, i had to adjust my exposure. Although all along my analysis is we are going down, but i never saw this big crash coming to be honest. Question now is, what to do going forward? I know exactly where i am going to short again.... i also know what to look out for if this is a bottom and exactly where i will long. Remember my ang mo shifu said, "Ask not where the market is heading but what are you going to do when the market gets there". So do i feel sad now that i have miss the big crash because i covered my dow too early? I am in this business too long to be affected by all these. The idea is to stay profitable consistently. I am quietly happy to be surviving this bear market as compared to the one in year 2001 where i became a "forced" investor. I think the worse kind of market participant is the kind who win in bull market and then lose it all in a bear market.... year after year.
Yes, i was making money profiting from the downside. But it was not as happy as when i was profiting from a bull market. My mind wanders to my dad's description of how during the last financial crisis, people were queing up at ATM to withdraw all the money for fear of bank collapse. I was probably too young to realise the impact at that time. But now even as i stare at the bearish chart of DBS, i am happy to see a shorting opportunity but at the same time, what if i am right and DBS really go down big time and come out in the news with bad exposure to Lehman and more? My paltry profit is nothing compare to a total financial breakdown which will affect everyone around me. I cannot see myself cheering for a total annihilation of banking sector. Just like when the hurricane was blowing accross US, i was short Dow & HSI... i was so happy that the wind is destructive...my profits in my short positions grew as the wind blew stronger. I was actually cheering for a powerful disaster. Inhuman, people's homes were destroyed, lives were lost, and here i am cheering just because i am making money out of this natural disaster. I feel wierd. Hence, although i know no matter how they try to bail out, the damage is done, but i support any efforts to stabilise the market for the good of everyone. Stock market is the first level of leverage in the financial arena, if it crashes, it will cause a domino effect.
Today's miracle is something familiar to Aug'07. Then, Fed decreased the discount coupon rate. Market then rally for 2 months before crashing. This time round it will be useful to know where the resistances are and get your CFD ready once again. Over the last 2 days, i was so tempted to short more in the market. I had to hold myself from commiting. I checked the charts, we are too far away from resistances for any good risk/reward trade and the market has tanked too much and may rebound....surely i don't want to be a squeezed shortist.
This market, in chinese, i only have these to say: 不死也受重伤，医好也是残废。
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Genocide in Stock Market
I couldn't find a better word to describe what i saw in the stock market. Genocide... certainly an appropriate word. Look at the badly battered stocks...I almost couldn't recognise some of them... When was the last time we saw Cosco below $2??? The chart looks damn familiar.... it looks like a dessert which i long time no eat... Ice KaChang... hearsay Bedok interchange sell the best?
I covered my Dow and HSI shorts on Tuesday to reduce my risk exposure while still keeping noble grp. Technically this stock looks "holland" to me and what's more, with the market paying alot of attention to oil and commodities weakness, it will cap any rebound and aid in the sell-down. If you have followed my blog long enough, you know my style is to stick with the trend. It is quite obvious that this is a bear market and a downtrend. The only time which had me second guessing is during the june to july period where market is trading sideways, and the breakout to either direction have everyone guessing. Since the day it broke 3k, the risk/reward favour short positions. That is the direction I have been trading since then. CFD is very convenient nowadays and as a market technician, you should make use of this tool. If you are only waiting to long... then you would have miss out on great opportunity to profit from the bear market. If you want to find out more about using CFD to short, check back at this blog, because i may organise a CFD workshop.
Banking stocks cracked, today really is heavy dumping accross the board. Those who wish to pick up dividend plays, this maybe a good time, however, whether dividend will reduce or not, it's anybody's guess. The sector to watchout for will be Marine, this sector is cyclic in nature, hence once over, may take a few years to come back. Looking at the share price, there could be more room to fall.
I did a screen with XPertTrader, a couple of bullish divergence is spotted. The relief rebound everybody is waiting for maybe near. But question is, do you want to trade against the current trend? For me, i may let the market rebound and then short stocks which i have shortlisted at resistances. Meanwhile, i'm happy to ride noble grp and then trade hsi and dow. Forex was also on my radar, but i feel abit too stretched to monitor too many markets at the same time. Hence i prefered indices over forex. Also, although at ChartNexus, we are allowed to trade during office hours, i cannot neglect my work. Hence position trading is more suitable for me.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
A beary volatile market
Hello all! It's been quite some time since i last shared. Basically nothing exciting going on and that's why i didn't post. I am still the same, holding on to shorts and no longs for me. Cut my oceanus the next day after the breakdown and keep my noble shorts. Now i am also holding a short on dow at 11,420 level. Other than that, i too suspect we may be near a bottom and ripe for a rebound. The thing to watchout for is whether we continue to break new low. Indicator though is showing bullish divergence, but let's not forget indicator is lagging and classical T.A should take precedence. If you have been following the market, yes it is volatile. One day up one day down. That's why we must form an opinion on the market direction and stick to it. Trading in and out is sure going to kill the amateur's account.
The thin market of August is over and we are seeing increasing volume. Bad news is, stocks are being hammered out of daylight. But is this even surprising? Of course not. Smart traders would know that we can just short. Any rebound, wait for it to hit resistance and short again. There are many ways to determine resistance. Make sure you know them all.
During this time, i am also working on importing trading rules into XPertTrader library. Very soon, users will get to enjoy Elder's triple screen trading system! But if u ask me, i prefer classical analysis versus system trading. I enjoy the art of forming market opinion and trade it. Also the position trading and adjusting that my shifu shared with me years ago. It gives me great satisfaction whenever i profited from my correct opinions.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
The thin market of August is over and we are seeing increasing volume. Bad news is, stocks are being hammered out of daylight. But is this even surprising? Of course not. Smart traders would know that we can just short. Any rebound, wait for it to hit resistance and short again. There are many ways to determine resistance. Make sure you know them all.
During this time, i am also working on importing trading rules into XPertTrader library. Very soon, users will get to enjoy Elder's triple screen trading system! But if u ask me, i prefer classical analysis versus system trading. I enjoy the art of forming market opinion and trade it. Also the position trading and adjusting that my shifu shared with me years ago. It gives me great satisfaction whenever i profited from my correct opinions.
DISCLAIMER: The contents in this website are for fun reading and must not be taken as a buy or sell advice. You must do your own analysis on top of my postings. By reading this blog, you agreed that i am not responsible for your trading.
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