Friday, May 30, 2008

STI Direction


Capitaland's strong rebound from oversold caught my eye. I be watching the falling window marked by red lines followed by the downtrend resistance line overhead.


STI edges up cautiously. Currently MFI is pending a downtrend breakout. Money may start flowing into the market again. However i be watching the blue line resistance. If both STI and capland together with the rest of the market can break the downtrend line, it may be time to go long. However, they struggle at that level, i will initiate short positions. This is an example of ask not where the market is going but what you going to do when the market gets there. It is highly important to develop your thoughts about the market and trade accordingly.

HSI is rebounding now, however, this is just a swing trade for me as there are overhead resistance nearby.


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

HSI very close to a rebound




Oscillator is showing oversold and with recent closing, we can see it has started to rebound. Currently the index is trading near support levels at oversold level, pretty attractive level to pick up CW. Tomorrow is Friday, i will be watching out for a mixed day and how the support is tested. Intra-day wise should see good support in terms of price actions.

GrowMoney XPertTrader Screening Results
Manhanttan Resource
SPH
Swissco


DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Stop loss triggered

A pause by the bears saw me took my humble losses on my 3 losing positions. I was dead wrong abt the direction and the last thing i want to do is to hold and hope. Now that i have raised cash from the sales, i'm all ready to look at the next opportunity. My wife asked me, "why is it that you can get it wrong?" To her, i can only smile and explained that losses are part and parcel of this game. I do not focus on the money lost from the stop loss, rather, it is important to focus on the next opportunity. I have been in this business long enough to know that, money can be made and losses if any best to keep it small. Hence it is important to be forward looking and get ready for the next trade setup. My friend new to trading asked, "Is it really so easy to just cut loss?" Of course not, the pain is still there when i cut, but i choose to ignore the pain. This is why psychology in trading is important. However i also know that in trading i cannot focus too much on the money prefering to concentrate on the movement of the market. This is because, i notice the moment i focus on the profits and losses, my emotions will run high and my intelligence gets lower and that's where i make all the stupid mistakes. Another important factor, it is easier to cut loss when i am risking profits made during the good years. This is where my edge is. Market can swing me in and out, but with my stringent money management i'm not hurting my capital, when i get into a good trend, that is going to double my money. As my ang mo shifu Livermore said, "There are times to go long, a time to go short, there is also a time to stand aside"

Back to why i had to cut loss, could i have hold and hope? After my painful lessons in the stock market, i never felt comfortable the moment the stocks go against me. With 3 stocks against me, i could feel the emotional baggage and i was affected psychologically to open another trade. Looking at the charts, they gave me no reasons to hold and hope. I clearly see that the play was in off-shore oil-play, properties were as dead as stone, banks were whacked, S-shares seemed to be sold down at resistance. I should be participating in these plays and not holding my losing positions and hoping. Trading is a dangerous game if you allow the stock market to control you. We must take control. Current rebound in the market to me seems to suggest a temporary pause. There seems little incentive for the market to head higher and with summer holidays coming up, we may drift sideways. Euro championship is coming up, market may stay quiet. This is where volume will fall thin and the price range will be tight. If we can hold off and build a base at this level, then the uptrend may resume. It will be bearish if current support levels do not hold. I be watching for Candlestick reversal pattern at index support levels for clues. Strictly no positions until i have an anticipation of the market direction.

St-Eng, while i was lookin to short once the support breaks, but, there seems to be a positive divergence now.. hence i'm not going to short this counter anymore.

Thanks to the encouraging words from "Annonymous" in the comments of the last posting. : ) Let's huat huat arh!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, May 26, 2008

A very familiar experience

It has been a very long time.... really a very long time since i am caught in a loser situation. Remember i went long 5 stocks 2 weeks ago when i declare good risk/reward. Yes although my risk is limited, i am now staring at 3 paper loss. Although they are capped at 2% risk control, but it still doesn't feel good to see 3 losing position. The 4th stock had been cut last Friday to go into this decline lighter. The 5th stock is still trending and has yet to trigger my trailing stop. Not to forget i was long hsi on Friday. :P

It's good that the dampening Dow isn't trading tonight. Frankly speaking, i did not see this coming. I was expecting a pull back of the normal kind, typical of an uptrend. Will i short now? No. Major support are still holding in many stocks. Unless they start to give way, which is a clue to me that the market will head lower, otherwise i will still believe all is not over.

If i am right, market starts to turn upwards, then that will be my best conviction.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

HSI pulls down the curtains

Weakness all day long. It isn't the kind of day i expected after a strong performance by DJ overnight. HSI strangely was shot down at the opening bell and throughout the day remains weak. It drags our market down along with it. The most "sian" part is how my stocks came under fire. I have loaded up to 5 stocks by last Friday anticipating a strong week ahead. My anticipation of the market direction is wrong.

A screen at the market reveal many shooting stars wannabes and i saw agri-culture stocks hogging the headlines after the strong surge by oil. STI barely survives the 20DMA support.

From here, i will start to observe dojis at support level to ascertain this is just a normal retracement. Otherwise, this is indeed not good news for my portfolio and i will start to look at shorting candidate. ST-Engrg is my top pick to go down if it's current support at 3.16 gives way.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Monday, May 19, 2008

200-Day moving average beckoning

Can you hear the bulls knocking? The horns locking... we looked set to challenge the all important psychological level of 200-day moving average soon. We may be meeting the bulls at 3300 in a decider.

Plenty of economy data out in the US this week and market will seek clue abt Fed's thinking in the FOMC meeting minutes to be released on Wednesday. It is important to decipher how the market react prior to the news and after.

As for HSI, i will be looking at opportunity to long this index.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
DBS
SGX

Quickpicks are generated from XPertTrader

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Impact of China earthquake

So far the market didn't take the earthquake too badly. However i do observe the high volume transacted for S-shares and the price wasn't able to clear the resistance. Now, if the price continues trading at this level and doesn't head higher, i'm going to take a bearish view. I was pretty disappointed my stocks did not gain strongly after the triple digits gain by Dow Jones.

Current situation i am in is, i have been opening up new positions as buy signals began to appear in my XPertTrader screening. Support levels still holding well and tonight's CPI from US side shows tame results. Hence i will cautiously load up and build a portfolio of stocks to ride to 3300 pts.

Growmoney quickpicks
BeautyChina
STX PO
FerroChina

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Market at my pivotal point

After a good run, market began to digest the recent gains. This is good for a sustainable run. I am seeing major indices sitting nicely on MA support and this is where the risk/reward is good to trade. I also notice during this selling, alot of price are still trading above support. In a bull market, support will hold and this is what i am seeing. Until these support levels start to crack, i am biased to the upside.

A couple of stocks we should not miss. Singtel, Sihuan, ISDN. In a volatile market, these 3 stocks have predictable movement.

Those interested to learn Fibonacci retracement, don't forget to join me and my team of trainers at SGX auditorium this Thursday evening, 15 May 2008, 7pm to 9pm. Make sure you grab your trading buddy along. After the seminar, dinner will be served and this is where we can talk about market as we drink and eat along.

Alot of people have wrote to me or spoken to me in private asking why am i not updating the blog regularly. For those who have followed me from 2005 will know. : ) This is a live trading journal. If I am not looking to trade, i will not post. The risk last 2 weeks were higher than reward and thus i opt to stand aside while monitoring the market sentiment daily. As soon as i smell anything unusual, that is worth my time to write and share with the readers. Otherwise, i won't be giving you daily updates where you can read all over the internet. What i want to share is my experience and market thoughts in view of helping beginners to understand this game better.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

S-shares idea

Market great rebound betrayed the index's flat closing. This market is really resilient. Despite Dow's losses we gain strongly. I fancy s-shares base on their performance today. The volume buy up is good as it is almost as high as when they were sold. Now the thing to look out for is, whether they can clear the last high to give me a high 5... opps... i meant higher high. Because with such high volume, it doesn't augers well if it doesn't break the last high and it will be worse if it comes down as this to me serve as a warning of distribution.

Alot of S-shares came out from the screening tonight. There are many that has ran up, but some are still pending breakout. Chinasky has an ascending triangle.... then when i check fibrechem... wah this sector majam hasn't run as yet. But since oil price is running high, i thought CAO chart looks sweet. Hongxin i too am tempted but the risk reward was not in my favour and i have to pass it up.

Pattern i observed now, intra-day weakness == buying opportunities lately.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.

Sunday, May 04, 2008

Market boosted by Fed cut again

Market finished strongly on Friday boosted by Dow's superior closing. Bearish chart formations on indices are still intact after last week and i shall trade with caution. With the Fed rate cut, market may have factored in the rise. Get ready for impact. Hmmm... what should i be doing? There are a couple of good signals from tonight's XPertTrader screening, but given the position of where STI is, i prefer to sell. I be looking forward to harvest my rewards vested 2 weeks ago. My tactic now will be hit and run. Meaning? Buy at support, Sell at resistance.

But i also cannot be overly cautious and miss out the good chances. Judging from my experience from tape reading, i don't smell any bear as yet. Let's see how Monday plays out. Then perhaps tomorrow night i can share more observations.

Agri stocks look like diamond pattern forming.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings.