Monday, November 27, 2006

What goes up, must come down

STI invalidated yet another reversal signal today by closing very high. But! The cracks were there, I saw many stocks struggling to close higher and the volume today is lighter. The recent runup is just amazing. After taking profit from 2 trades, I am now left with 4 stocks. To protect these 4 stocks against any sudden bear strikes, I bought a HSI PW to hedge. Should there be any major sell down, my Put Warrants will give me profits which offset my paper loss in the 4 stocks. If market continues it's upward movement, I will ride on my 4 stocks and lose on the warrant.

I'll not be looking to add stocks. Instead, after selling my 2 shares, I have funds to fund my futures trading account! keke I reckon that should the market corrects from here, shorting the index will be a good way to make money. :P

I am happy to announce there are now only 4 seats left for my Saturday's class!! I have prepared practise charts that will help you understand the theories better or better still, ask me directly and save all the typings. haha
Lai lai Interested party please register at www.chartnexus.com/events choose the 2nd December 2006 class where I am the trainer hor.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, November 23, 2006

Up, up and away!

After a black Monday where the market gave away recent gains and threaten to drop south further, we seen 3 consecutive days of gains. Impressive! But also dangerous! It is always not comfortable to see too steep an incline...once the supply of buyers dry up, we will head south. This is exactly what happened at every market top. I'm tracking market volume very closely. Especially when there seems to be little fear and all greed, prepare your parachute.


I followed a rule my shifu always shared with me, "Sell on the way up". I did so and cleared 3 positions namely Gallant bought 0.920 sold 0.975, JiuTian bought 0.950 sold 0.995 & ChinaDairy bought 0.560 sold 0.565 thus pocketing a very decent profit. All 3 showed signs of weakness and after 2 days of spectacular rise, it makes sense to take profit first. This is consistent to what I have done back in October when STI reached new high. Remember, no one can sell at the exact top. I will never forget the pain I went through during my early days of trading where gains were wiped out as I stubbornly held on thinking every counter I bought will sheng sheng sheng non-stop....how naive i was.

Now, can you do poor old Decipher a favour? If you find my blog entertaining, useful and educational, may I ask you to forward my web address to your friends who might be interested. I aspire to be a leading local trading website providing value to visitors and I can't achieve this alone. Let us tua tua huat together! Huat arh!


My Holdings:
Cosco Corp @ 1.31
Midas @ 1.02
Sembkim @ 0.650
TatHong @ 1.17


GrowMoney QuickPicks
Longcheer


*Powered by XPertTrader



As it's my last article for the week, I would like to invite you to spend a Saturday with me on the 2nd of December 2006. Details as follow, or you can click on this link www.chartnexus.com/events



DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Mad Bull Rally


SembKim: No waves without wind. The heavy volume hinted something must be brewing. ADX still has room to expand, MacD has crossed over, price will be back into the Triangle as depicted.
Very high chance to see a breakout of the resistance line. Today it had a gap up, breakaway gap. Let's see what this gap develops as. It will be nice if price heads back up and trade along the trendline. But i'm also wary of the big gap.

Today is a day where everything went well for me. Most of my holdings extended their gains. Just last week, I was complaining about my stocks not moving and how I saw the stocks took turn to rally. I was right. This week, I found 4 of my stocks in deep profits. What a change of fortune.

GrowMoney QuickPicks
CoscoCorp
YanLord

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DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Chart on Tat Hong aka Lao Hong


Lao Hong (Originally known as TatHong): Resistance now stood at 1.10 which is the 100D MA. 1.03 will be my 61.8% Fibbo Retracement. Apart from that i'm still surprise why the selling in Tat Hong. The heavy volume is key to note. I will be looking at how it tests it's support and resistance levels. Also to count candles + Volume. By the way, I shall now call Tat Hong, Lao Hong in my blog.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, November 20, 2006

Market Pull Back!

Nikkei left me stone cold. It reminds me of my principal who caned me for not following school rules. In my last article I jumped onto Nikkei too early. I should have waited for market confirmation. Nikkei broke support and I had to run first. I shall live to fight another day. I know the game too well to have stuck my neck out to hope for a rebound tomorrow. My lessons in the past taught me to always cut when the loss is still small. I was too early in buying and if I was right, Nikkei would already show me profits. The fact that it went against me showed that I was wrong in my prognosis and that the underlying strength is changing. Cutting loss will prevent a larger lost. Even if Nikkei were to rebound from here, that will be another trading opportunity on it's on and I shall not treat it as "it could have been a cheaper loss". Thinking this way will cause complacent in cutting loss in the future because "past" experience has taught me that stock can rebound.

Market has begun to retrace, it will be a very strong bull should we see strong buying tomorrow. Otherwise, I will be watching for a bottom to form itself. Should market continues to pull back, remember to watch all the good stocks that you have failed to pick up because they ran away too high too fast.

No quickpicks tonight as market direction is unclear for now.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Friday, November 17, 2006

Nikkei Acting as anticipated

Following Tuesday's gains, Nikkei pulled back on Wednesday and Thursday offering a good chance to go long which I did. I had to because it is behaving according to my anticipation that it is forming a bottom on the weekly chart and I anticipate a white candle by Friday. I always preach to let the market shows where it is heading before we put our money on. Even when I was a young boy, following rules has never been my nature. That explains why my principal used his cane on my bom bom. keke

GrowMoney QuickPicks
Brightworld
ChinaDiary
UIC

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XPertTrader Subscriber, MacD Histogram rule coming your way on Sunday! We will upload into XPertTrader Library for you to download and start using! Time to salivate! :D For visitors who are not yet a subscribers and wish to find out more, we welcome you to visit us on 21st Nov at our XPertTrader Workshop! Details can be found at www.chartnexus.com/events . Book your seats early as seats are limited. See you there!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

STI 2800 . Comes sooner than later?

Nikkei pulled back nicely according to plans. It will be a buy for me if it opens quiet, or trade near to 16,100 levels.

After many weeks of inactivity, my account roared back to life! Just as I guessed, they are really rotating one by one, taking turn to rally. Didn't add anything today as I am cash strapped and waiting to pounce on index warrants.

GrowMoney Quickpicks
Jiutian
Sunshine

Cracking the Stock Market Code is now open for it's 4th intake! Details as can be found at the following URL : http://www.chartnexus.com/events/more_details.php?eid=128 . This time round, I'm the trainer! If you have been following my blog and would like to spend a Saturday with me, see you there! : )

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Nikkei Springs back!

Nikkei rebounded it's support level. I will be looking at dips from Wednesday or Thursday for a chance to long. I did not long today because for a normal movement, it should make a light dip before testing 16,500 level again. The dip serve as my confirmation.

As for stocks, today was a great day. But not for me. My stocks practically stood little changed and a little into red territory. I do not like this feeling. But then again, feeling shouldn't interfere with trading. I ought to stick to the support levels i defined.

GrowMoney QuickPicks
CNA
Swissco
Hi-p
Midas
OCBC
ChipEngSeng

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DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, November 13, 2006

Nasty Surprise from Celestial

Celestial has been the talk of the town with it's surprising strong sell down today. On the contary, something seems to be brewing with ChinaHong. $2 stock now!!! Amazing! It goes to show how volatile china stocks are. Take extra precaution when trading them. Anyway, you will find that I have been very quiet lately. This doesn't mean i have stopped trading. I just acquired Gallant last Friday. F&N a stock shortlisted last Thursday moved up 8 cents today. I wonder if Gallant will disappoint me.

Anyway, I have cut a number of stocks, Chinasun, MediaRing and Synear. Yes, Synear. Bloody hell!!! Today went up. It goes to show last week sell down was "man made". Tricky!

Current holdings:
Gallant @ 0.920
SembKim @ 0.650
ChinaDairy @ 0.560
Cosco @ 1.31
Midas @ 1.02
Tat Hong @ 1.17

2 stocks i am looking at tomorrow:
Longcheer
SinoEnv

Weak pullback with volume will be perfect entry for me. Otherwise, a quiet open may be another good opportunity to enter.

Indices wise, I am looking at Nikkei for a chance to play long. The strong rebound today caught my eyes. As soon as there is bottoming action, i shall long a strike at 16,000.

Due to my commitments at ChartNexus, I am preparing for more XPertTrader workshops and my own Technica Analysis Classes in December'06. Over the weekend, I had been doing lots of backtesting on strategies for the time period from 1996 to 2006...10 years. I would say this backtesting really made me learn lots of things as i analysed all the charts to confirm the results. If you need such a backtesting tool, do not hesistate to visit www.chartnexus.com or you can ask me in the shoutbox or drop me an email, I will be glad to help. Better still, comes join us at one of our free workshops. See you there!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, November 09, 2006

STI climbs higher despite profit takings

STI is nearing record high once again. How come i see so many unhappy faces? With market trading at highs, we should all be cheering happily. But really, profit taking was the theme whole week and any rebound became instant profit takings. I sense there was no confidence in the market. Plenty of ulu stocks hogged the top volume. A sign i never liked. We all know the market is going to correct, but somehow i feel it hasn't happen yet. HSI if it doesn't close above 19,000, it risk a very bad candle formation on the weekly chart. Nikkei in contrast, could be forming a bottom on the weekly chart. Dow without saying is at another all time high. But what's the use? Rally by Dow has been ignored by our local bourse. But come to think of it, it is better this way because then we won't have exuberence and without that, it is unlikely market is going to crash big time.

My strategy for the current market will be 隔岸观火, "Observing the fire from the other side of the river". I have shortlisted 2 stocks to watch tomorrow, F&N and Gallant.

Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce you to a system i developed using the MacD Histogram. The results from backtesting is more than encouraging! As soon as i finalise the testing, I shall load it up to XPertTrader Library.

We still have about 3 seats left for the Technical Analysis course titled, "Cracking the Stock Market Code". If you have not signed up for the course, please do not forget to do so! See you there!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, November 06, 2006

Eat Pig, Pay Dog

Merril Lynch did it again!!! A report by them on Chinasun sent the stock rebounded fiercely back into the 70s! We have seen them done this a couple of times and they have done it once again. If I tell you i am not *tulan, I am being dishonest!

HSI went crazy and barged into new highs! With US under pressure on Friday, I thought today's going to be a goner, but to my pleasant surprise... Ah Gu is back! Especially China Stocks, i have been noticing them, they seems like taking turn to rally.

By the way, those who are not in my growmoney yahoo group, quickpicks are back!!! As of Sunday, I'm going to start sending quickpicks to my yahoo group. Here in this blog, I will continue to share my observations on the market. But i will still declare when I buy in the shoutbox wherever possible. Like today, I was at HDB hub for their walk in selection....no time to get online. But I bought my quickpicks. :D Not making money yet hor.... !@#!@#!@ they bo cheong...nevermind, maybe tomorrow! :D

Haiyo!!! Longcheer why cheong so fast!!! I not enough money to buy leh!! ChinaSky wait for a few more days will die isit??? Really is pui ah! This few weeks has been a "eat pig pay dog" for me. Nothing fantastic so far except profits in Cosco is swelling up. :D

XPertTrader has released a screen rule on MacD Histogram!!! Yeah!! I have been bugging them for it and my Christmas present came 1 month earlier! hahaha For those who are still not familiar with MacD Histogram, you should check out this indicator, it's my favourite trend reversal reading indicator!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Friday, November 03, 2006

Cracking the Stock Market Code - 3rd Intake

Learn the most effective Technical Analysis Strategies for the ever-changing markets in this one full day course (Lunch & Tea Break included). Our Trainer is a qualified Research Analyst from the investment industry. This interactive course (intake no. 3) will arm you with a 4-step trading strategy, obtained through practice, practice, practice.


Cracking the Stock Market Code
Building your First Trading Strategies (Intake 3)

Date: 11th Nov 2006 (Saturday)
Time: 9.30am-4.30pm
Fee: SGD180 *Enjoy a discounted price of SGD 162 for more than 1 seat booked.
Venue: BayView Hotel, 30 Bencoolen Street, Singapore 189621
Presenter: Ritesh Menon

COURSE OUTLINE

Intoduction to Technical Analysis
The course will kickstart with an introduction to Technical Analysis and understanding the psychology behind it.

How to identify Trends
We will first learn how to identify trends. Trend is your friend! Learn how to identify and draw a stock's trendline and learn to trade along with the trend

Support & Resistance
The core of technical analysis! No trader can ignore this basic but yet often times forgotten concept. Learn to identify all the support and resistance levels on a chart. Entries without knowing where the support or resistance are risky.

Price Gaps & Volume Analysis
Learn to identify the different types of Gaps and how you can trade them. The importance of volume in analysing the charts will be taught throughout the course.

Moving Averages
Learn one of the most popular trend indicator and how to determine entries & stops using moving averages.
Strategies include price crossover with Moving Average and Moving Averages crossover. Do you also know moving average can be used as a support and resistance?

Candlestick Reversal Patterns
Stock price goes up and down the chart every day. We will show you how to identify these turning points of a trend through Candlestick Reversal Patterns

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Indicator & MacD Indicator
Learn how to make use of these 2 indicators to identify entries and stops. They can also be used to identify Bullish or Bearish Divergence which signifies major turns on the charts. A must know for indicator study!

How to determine market direction
Knowing where the general market is heading gives you the edge in trading. You will be able to avoid buying high and selling low.

How to identify the start of Rotational Play
We have seen how sectors in the market rallies one after another in what the industry call rotational play. Learn how to identify which sector is in play and how to identify the laggard sector!

How to select the right stock
Ever wonder why are your holdings not in the top gainers list? Why did you miss out the big runner and bought a stock that refuses to rally during a bull phase? We will show you how to select the right stock out of the hundreds listed

Money Management & Trading Discipline
No trading system is complete without Money Management and Trading discipline. This section will complete the formula by sharing how to manage your money and be a disciplined trader

A 4-step approach to identify the next profitable trade


For more information about the above course please visit:
http://www.chartnexus.com/events

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Within a stone throw away from record high

I tried to go short on Nikkei and failed on Tuesday. Bought at 0.255 and sold at 0.240 on Wednesday. The rebound in nikkei was weak and it went soft after briefly crossing into positively. Recognising the weakness and my eyes on Nikkei breaking the 16,200s support, i bought the PW. Tuesday ended with my PW slightly in the red. Wednesday opened perfectly with Nikkei down by 100 points, but things were different after 1 hour of trading and once again i saw Nikkei trickling upwards. After deliberating for a few minutes, I decided to cut loss on my Nikkei short. The logic is simple, human are driven by fear and greed in the market. If Nikkei is really bearish, the selling would have feed on itself with many people dumping due to fear. However that was not seen and it serves as a warning to me.

Current Holdings:

ChinaDairy @ 0.560
MediaRing @ 0.360
SembKim @ 0.655
CoscoCorp @ 1.31
TatHong @ 1.17

Midas is a stock i will be looking at. Breakout of $1 with volume caught on my stock screener.

We had a flush on last Friday and Monday. Last 2 days of actions showed that buyers are still willing to step into the market. Gosh! Why the bullishness? We easily closed the gap down on Monday. This gap should now act as a support level for any pullback. Or should we go down tomorrow, this gap will be a resistance. Property sprung to life. This is 3 days after I took profit on my Capitaland. Damn!!! haha Overall, we are seeing buying accross the board which shows strength.

Dow Jones could be supported at the highs because of the elections next tuesday. Can you believe it?? At the point of writting, Dowjones is up 40 points! Another good run tomorrow? I'm just glad I still have stocks in hand and has stayed clear of my shorts. Cheers!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.