Monday, July 31, 2006

Stepping aside of Stock Market for now

Market is undergoing mood swing. It is not the first time, it starts brightly and ends with a whisper. I never like this to happen especially to the stocks i owned...Jtech and Sino-env. I sold both today and still keeping Cosco as it showed strength today. Tuesday and Wednesday I will not be around and hence will not be able to react to any adverse movements. Sino-env had to be sold because I bought upon brokeout of 0.945 and today I sold at 0.950, suffering brokerage loss. It had went up to 0.985 today but I didn't sell. I don't feel stupid. I am letting my profits run. When a stock breaksout, it should continue especially at new highs. If there are enough supply to the buyers, most likely distribution in progress. I may be wrong, but I rather be wrong within my cut loss percentage then to hold and hope. For I know, a true breakout will be like Celestial or Cosco. They break and don't look back. I sold my Jtech after it fails to finish brightly and closing nearer to it's day low. I bought at 1.03 and sold at 1.12. Again, the stock touched a high of 1.17, but i don't feel stupid. My game plan is to let my profit run and cut my losses short. This way, I can be wrong 7 out of 10 times and my 3 times can more than cover back.

Today's market volume crossed 1 billion mark. Time to watch out for retracement. Nikkei and HSI are trading near resistance including Dow Jones and STI. I never like to buy near resistance. It's tougher to make money here since there is little upside left. A good time to buy would be when market retraces and many people dare not buy. Otherwise, it is also lucrative to look at indices put warrants. If you are interested, do choose an at the money or near the money or slightly out of the money warrants with longer time expiry if you can find.

Have a roaring good time guys!

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, July 27, 2006

The week in retrospect

After 2 days of slump, today's bullish rally caught everyone by surprise! It started quietly and even up a little. But Tuesday and Wednesday wolves' cries were fresh on my mind. Hence I was cautious. The last straw came when Nikkei just keep going higher and when Hang Seng opened, hell break loose! We had a bit of retracement intra-day and that was when I dare dare tried Sino-Env since from the charts it's showing a breakout. Finally just before closing, I bought Nikkei warrants for a bet Dow Jones is going to rally tonight. Why did I bet on that? The conditions were similar! Similar to what? Just look at Monday's post. Nikkei close high, Hang Seng close high, FTSE trading high...isn't it the same as today? Well, I did say, if it ever happens again, JUST DO IT! This is not a blind bet, but a calculated bet. The conditions were right and I just cannot let fear stop me. If you ask me, do I feel fearful when buying Nikkei babies because it is no guarantee Nikkei is going up tomorrow morning? Yes I do! But my job is just to follow my trading system and get rid of emotions. If I am wrong, I will just make sure I don't lose more than I can afford to by buying a smaller quantity as the warrants can swing wildly.

I just completed reading my 2005 July's articles...woo! We had a great month then! Every other day the market rally despite high oil price, terrorist attack in London. Also, I revisited some lessons and was shock to see a young Decipher anyhow pick stocks!!! I was really just whacking any stocks that show bullishness. Now, I don't do that anymore. Before I buy a stock, there are many factors I would consider other than charts. For one, market direction is important. Actually, I also realise market timing. When you buy when the market is rallying, it is easier to make money. Guessing bottom or anticipating moves may get you wins and losses which nett up could be just small profits. I did plenty of anticipations last year. Livermore said, "Do not use your money to anticipate the next move!" Also, back then, I keep staying out while market keeps making new highs. Bad move! There are times when we can trade, and time we stand aside. The market doesn't rally all the time, if you see one, you try one. When you see a bear, either you stand aside or you try to poke it's backside for a rebound or reversal. Standing aside during a bull rally?? Young Decipher was plain stupid. :P

GrowMoney QuickPicks

Capitaland: Daily chart today close with a bull engulfing pattern. Weekly chart showing a possible bull engulfing. It should be confirmed with another white candle on the daily.

Keppel Land: Weekly chart has a bullish reversal pattern known as Bullish Harami and daily chart has a morning star!!! Very powerful one hor!

ChinaHong: Watch the 1.60 level. It must be broken with high volume.

Celestial: breakout of down trendline with volume.

ChinaSun: Watch for a high volume breakout of down trendline.

Rotary: Watch how it takes out 0.580. A tricky stock which may freeze on you for weeks.

Olam: Bullish reversal on the weekly

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, July 24, 2006

Market Indices ki seow *crazy*

At the point of writting, Dow Jones and Nasdaq are having another crazy night! Dish of the night.....*drum roll* Stewed Bear paws! With conflict still on going, last week's sell off on Thursday and Friday looking bearish, Nikkei and HSI opened weak and then close strongly. I was tempted to buy their warrants at closing but my brains stopped me. I thought it's not wise of me to be gambling that tonight Dow Jones will rally. I should be placing bet after the market showed me where it is determined to go. However tonight I learn a lesson! If ever I see the same situation happening, JUST DO IT!!!

Tomorrow, my eyes will be on Celestial & Sino-Env. As for warrants, I will be looking to hold positions on HSI warrants.

GrowMoney Blueline Theory!
I like the following 3 stocks as they are trading near their all time high!
Semb Marine
Cosco
SinoEnv

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Markets replied with massive gains!

From the look of STI's weekly chart, it will be nice to close around 2383 or even break 2400. Because we will form a candlesticks reversal pattern known as Bull piercing pattern! Which is to say, potentially more upside next week. Another anticipation is a slightly normal reaction by world markets due to the big gains today. If we close mixed tomorrow, with the risk of Middle-east unrest, the brave ones might want to pick up some gems to hold over the weekend. The reward is ceasefire in middle-east and Monday you will be laughing all the way to the bank. The risk, is at most a small gap down. In my humble opinion, I do not feel a fierce sell off from here.


Labroy Marine


UTAC: Weekly chart forming a hammer if this week close between 0.690 to 0.710. But hammer needs a white candle confirmation. FA wise, plenty of house downgrades UTAC. So could be a fast rebound only.


Cosco Corp: Running into resistances soon But strength is seen in same sector. Labroy and Semb Marine.


ChinaSun, 0.845 is key...

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Market close mixed amidst profit taking

After a strong start, market closed mixed with upper shadow signalling profit takings accross the board. Too many data and results coming out of US this week. Ah Ben is going to speak again tonight and I feel market is being cautious of what can happen.

I picked up HSI Call warrants in the morning and when HSI opens, the call warrants went up. Swee! However it closed at my buy price. I bought because Nikkei open strongly and I remember the day before, HSI defies gravity and showed some strength in staying afloat 16,000. US charts suggest more upside this week. I didn't sell because I think US side can still have more upside and am willing to bet. Furthermore, the way I see Nikkei not going down despite heavy selling on tuesday as a good sign. Infact a friend added that he saw it as a chance to pick up cheap.

At the point of writting, DJ is up 120 points!!! wah! Both HSI and Nikkei have plenty of room up north...this time song liao! :D

My plan for tomorrow will be, if i wake up and see DJ close in the hundreds, i shall add my HSI CW and look to add my Cosco. Most of the stocks will gap up tomorrow, hence i shall focus on my current holdings. If stocks stay strong, i might pick good ones at 4pm.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Betting on a short term rebound


Today I placed a trade on Cosco based on the bullish white candle which near closing i saw it's volume breaking it's 50 days MA which is also higher than the previous down day. This to me meant the bulls came back strongly. On trendline, it looks like a uptrend in the making. Another reason i had for buying today was a bet that Dow Jones will behave itself and nikkei will rebound tomorrow. HSI has shown that it refuses to go down.


I bought this at 1.03 and the selling yesterday caught me by surprise. Didn't had the time to cut. Since we are near the support right now, i shall bet for a rebound in Nasdaq which should help Jtech too.

Monday, July 17, 2006

Where Are We Heading

Tonight's study is on STI. It is important to know where the market is heading before I even look at individual chart. The line of least resistance is obviously heading down. I deduce 3 sceanrios.

A) Index looks likely to test 2280, if reach here and rebound, a possible reversal if the rebound take out the 2448 as set in July.

B) Index breaks 2280 and pulls closer to 2180, this is where we can fish for a rebound in index.

C) Index rebounds from the close today and takes out 2448, A higher low, higher high will be registered.

The above are my anticipation of the market. I do not act on them, simply, I act when it is happening. Another thing i noticed about some stocks, they are near the lows made in May when the market came crashing down. I am looking out for possible reversal candlestick pattern.



DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Incredible Dragons

GrowMoney QuickPicks
The stocks listed below have the possibility of resuming their uptrend. Things to watch would be high volume and a white candle to confirm the reversal pattern. The bottom of the hammer is the support. But I think more importantly is that they close above the levels as quoted. High Risk!

UTAC watch 0.775
Celestial watch 1.55
ChinaPetro watch 0.755
ChinaSun watch 0.850
Landwind watch 0.505



Chartered


Jurtech

News:
Taiwan Mobile engages Datacraft for internal infrastructure upgrades and on-going support

KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
KEPPEL SECURES S$30 MILLION CONTRACT FOR FIRST WASTE-TO-ENERGY PLANT IN FINLAND

Jurong Tech: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates up stakes From 7.45 % To 8.37 %

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Reflections

As much as I am very dis-satisfied with myself for selling too early, i began to question my decision. Sold Celestial at 1.49 after seeing weakness in china stocks. It went on to test 1.62! Sold Cosco at 1.30 after i see hesistations at resistance. Today it closed at 1.35! These are all too familiar in my career. Trading is never easy. I remember times when i overstayed my welcome in a stock and see my profits go up in smoke hence this time round I decided to take quick profits. Miss I did, but profits I keep. Make sense? I'm not really sure at times because it really felt silly to be missing from the big moves however at the same time, if the stock reverses and took back your paper profits, I will look more silly. Gosh!! Indeed it's not easy! Recalling all the theories, I think it only make sense to hold and ride your way up is when the general market sentiment is bullish. Your odds will be higher. Right now, uncertainties still hang in the air. Regional indices were volatile and soon, our STI will be affected.

A good thing i did over the last 48 hours was to sell according to my plans. It cut away the emotional factor in my decision making. I noticed that many stocks did not have the strength to close at their high and this sound like alarm bells in my head. One by one, i took profits from my stocks. When i'm finally done, I went for Chinasun because from the chart, it's shooting star didn't have a confirmation and I bet for HSI to save china stocks again which we all know by now did not happen. I promptly cut today. The other factor was the wide angled view of sector or stocks group. They move in tantem and often you can realise rotational interest.

Now i'm 100% again and am looking for the next trade. Stay tuned!

News:
The Board of Directors of CSE Global Limited wishes to announce that the Company will release its second quarter/half-year financial results for 2006 via SGXNet after trading hours on 10 August 2006.

SPH's operating profit up 2.2% quarter on quarter. But!!! without it's investment income, profit is actually down 8.8% due to higher newsprint and other operating costs.

Chartered Results on 21st July

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Monday, July 10, 2006

Earning season is here!

Wow! Worldcup finally over. Frankly speaking i didn't watch much since semi final stage because it turned out to be an all european affair, no more world cup but european cup! haha

It is not my first time noticing china stocks have this underlying buying power supporting the price. Everytime it is beaten down, it rises from the ashes to stun everyone! I also noticed how Nikkei rebounded strongly today making it all possible for a big rally tomorrow. Hang Seng as usual showed resilience and I thought it had lead STI for certain days even when Dow Jones were down. I suspect Hang Seng is the reason why China stocks are so strong. Nevertheless, it is dangerous to chase high flying stocks. Strict cut loss is a must!


ChinaMilk


ChinaSun


Cosco Corp


JurTech

ChinaWheel: Blueline at 0.460. Watch the break of this key resistance.

News:
Semb Marine's Q2 result on 1st August.
SPH results due 11th July.
Labroy Marine interviewed by Reuters.

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Thursday, July 06, 2006

Red Star Army Marches on!

Our market was pretty resilient to the selling pressure due to the N.Korea missles test. China stocks were heavily sold yesterday and I warned of a sell off which never happened!!! Shooting stars required black candle confirmation for a bearish formation. During intra-day i observed that instead of closing with black candle, i was seeing strength in China stocks broadbased. Of course strength from Hang Seng helped alot. I revisited history back in 2005. Back then, i keep waiting for retracement to buy and market drifts further away from me! This time round, I am not stupid! When my anticipation of a pull back did not happen and instead the behaviour was strong, i just went ahead and buy instead of wait. I reckoned, as long as i have sound money management rule which is important for the long run, I should just go ahead.

From my system scan, the undertone of the market is bullish. Strengths are in Banking and finance and our China Darlings.


ChinaHong


MediaRing


ChinaPetro


ChinaSky


JurTech


Cosco

News:
Singapore Press Holdings Limited wishes to announce that it will release its financial results for the Third Quarter ended 31 May 2006 on Tuesday, 11 July 2006.

GrowMoney QuickPick
FabChem
FungChoi
Luzhou

DISCLAIMER: This is not an inducement to buy or sell. You should do your own analysis on top of my postings. Copyright © 2006 GrowMoney Blog. All rights reserved.

Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Shooting Stars in China Gang

I saw many many shooting stars in china stocks. Watch out dudes! Overall weakness all over the place. All the while i didn't like the way stocks struggled at resistance, it broke through the roof yesterday only to see majority of them gave back the gains.

With North Korea ti ti siao siao (*naughty*), it pays to be careful. However, get ready your bullets, for, if we are not going down heavily, it augers well for another push up! Let me remind all of us that we have been going up for the last 2 weeks, any pull back is only healthy.

COSCO Ship update



Samle of GrowMoney Yahoo Group email:

Hello fellas!

How's trading? I know it's been a long time since i write privately
to the group. No good lobangs recently. However I found a pretty
neat idea on earning from the internet advertising. We will talk more
about it later part of the email. But when you see me posting
articles...i am coming back! It's time to make money! :D

As for market directions, before the sell down, i had been very
cautious after the elections as i mentioned that history showed that
market will be down. I never expect the selling to be of such
magnitude! Now that worldcup is coming to an end, it's time to start
looking again. I myself have been picking up and selling over the
last 2 weeks, making a little first because I think market can still
swing wildly.

With the market rebounded from the lows in May, please do not think
the bear market days are over! This is a dangerous thought. This can
just be a rebound and a fall to the downside will hurt many who have
become complacent. I urge all of us to be more attentive to your
holdings now. It is pretty unhealthy for the market to keep pushing
higher without some selling and retracement. Remember Apr/May? We keep
going up and finally collapsed! Did you see how the china stocks keep
pushing up? wah even i am surprised! While i noticed that they were
struggling to break resistance, today they simply blast through! But
my eyes were on the local stocks. National Day is coming!!! Singtel,
GLC-linked companies..do take a look at them...when market is busy
with china stocks...i think Index linked counters is worth taking a
look! :D That's also why i am holding to my cosco.

Another trick is to look at a stock's last results...business
fundamentals have not changed. Only the sentiment of the market has
changed. So look for those companies with growth still in them and of
course, potentially good results!

Alot of people have been asking about SPH. For me, as long as they
are not selling paragon, this is a reason to hold on to it! :D Do you
know paragon is woth at least $0.50 per share??? That's more than 10%
at current stock price! Once they sell, i will collect the dividends
+ special dividends and look elsewhere.

While others like to boast about what had already happened, i am
different! Firstly, i'm not a guru. I think sharing the next move is
better for everyone instead of leaving you drooling abt what i had
bought. Of course you need to do ur own analysis on top of mine to
decide instead of following blindly.

Here's the bit about internet advertising. As you all know, i'm out
of the google adsense program. No more free lunch at kopi tiams..keke
But!!! I have found another local company who is doing internet
marketing too. It's at it's infancy stage but i'm diving in because:
- no capital required
- I earned money from internet advertising before and know it's not a
scam (Google Adsense)
- Simple way to earn pocket money, since we got to be online anyway

Now instead of clicking google ads to support poor old
Decipher...where you don't get a share of it! ha! But at least good
stocks pick right? :P Now with email cash pro, you can earn from the
internet too! Now we can all grow money together!

http://www.emailcashpro.com/?r=decipher
This is my referal link, so it will be good if you sign up via me.
It's something like MLM...many levels..

Thanks!
Decipher
P.S Watch this space, national day is coming, i will scrutinise all
the GLCs or index stocks. For those who have the time to trade
frequently, you can visit my blog for daily dose. This is the time to
stop thinking abt worldcup and start making money via trading!