Thursday, June 30, 2005

Losers lead again!

Although STI is in positive Territory, but losers still lead gainers today. So what if index is up? The fact is, more counters are heading south than north. Like that how to trade?? Well, the wise always says, "If unclear, stay clear"

Again my strict system doesn't yield any counters to get vested in. However, comfortdelgro should be put on radar. Their next retracement could be a chance to ride taxi to the north! It's way oversold on the weekly chart. The good news, it's ticking up. This "tick up" will have retracement along the way to test the top. Psychological side can be explained as buyers who bought at 1.70 has been long suffering. Once there is a chance to get out, they will rush for the exit. So if this rush for exit is well supported by buyers, it will form a oversold on the weekly and yet the uptrend on the weekly will sustain. This will be a good buy signal!

"Why are you so hum ji? weekly trend is up and yet you don't dare to buy?"
I rather trade on the safe side. If the uptrend is strong, it should not retrace until the weekly uptrend is reversed. Not convince? Check out starhub! Isn't it's retracement shallow? Uptrend steadily sustained on the weekly chart while we have over sold on the daily charts.

Gongkia and Jade, I hope my charts have given you another dimension to make your trading decision.

By the way, thanks for your visits! I have went past the 500 psychological barrier! :D

Chart Requests

Since market is moving sideways, I have set up a "Requests" corner for people whom like to see their favourite counter's chart. It is located at the left panel. I will try to satisfy these requests as and when possible. No guarantee though. : ) The chart that I will post up is no crystal ball. You should do your own analysis too. It will be good if fellow chartists can comment the charts. Maybe we can spot gold mine together! : )

Wednesday, June 29, 2005

Bears holding Bulls by the horn.

Losers out numbered Gainers today. A tussle going on between bull and bear. Come to think of it, our market has moved into 2200 range in the month of June. Time for consolidation? Or perhaps retracement? From the weekly STI chart, looks likely the rally upwards is losing strength based on a lower MacD top as compared to the previous MacD top. This is known as bearish divergence. As for Sesdaq weekly chart, it seems like the worse is over for our small cap companies. A bullish divergence from the MacD is observed where a higher bottom on the MacD is formed while Sesdaq reach a new low. This is by no means a 100% prediction into the future. Trading is a game of probability. Based on history, certain charts has a high probablity of repeating history. Hence this is what us, chartist based on...probability.

Nothing was generated from my system today. I decided to screen the counters thouroughly for very good risk/reward ratio entry points. Otherwise no point losing money for nothing. I might as well bet red or black on the roulette table. The odds is better! hahaha
MFS had looked promising, but the close today has triggered my cut loss and thus make it a no-buy.

Choppy times is here, let's trade with care! If there is any charts you would like to see or hear from, drop me a note, I would gladly post it here. I am not showing off my charting ability as clearly i'm still not an expert. I yearned for the chance to discuss charts with the experts.

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

Bulls saying to Bears "Catch me if you can"

Gainers led losers today as we see how our market turn against the bearish sentiment yesterday. Looks like the poor economic data and high oil price doesn't seem to affect sentiment too much. Am I overly cautious? The volume today is higher than that of yesterday. Not everyone is selling. Should I get real and get vested? Oil has retreated to US$59 ++ . Positive for our market for tomorrow's session. Cheong arh!

Progressive monitoring:

1) Noble: Buying interest remain, the hammer on weekly chart standing strong. Today it close up 2 cents.
2) MFS: Weekly chart sending uptrend signal, daily chart will be waiting for a down day to get vested via Force Index.
3) ChinaPetro: Using Alexander Elder's Triple screen trading system, this counter ought to be ommited as the weekly chart doesn't show "up" status.
4) Singpost: It is already in uptrend, I had missed the boat. The risk/reward is not in my favour. Not going to bother with it till it's next retracement.
5) Macquaire: No interest for now.
6) DataCraft: The hammer on the weekly looks good, but using my new system, this counter should have been invested earlier on. Now, risk/reward not in my favour.

I have been reading up on Alexander Elder's Triple Screen Trading System. This system has 3 stages as follows:
  1. Shortlist only when the longer time frame is uptrend
  2. Shortlist only when the shorter time frame is down
  3. Trade only when (1) is up and (2) is down

I still need time to test if it works well, once i have more free time, I will create a list of counters which falls into the above 3 rules. Then we shall all withness if it works well. Watch out for them soon!

My previous Trading systems has been trying to tap on a current steep volume and price breakout. It is a super high risk trading strategy. Although target price is always 2 cents from the last close, it has no clear cut loss level. A trader who trades without a stop loss is like a formula 1 driver racing without brakes. Always consider risk/reward ratio.

Today my trading kakis had cash in their Cosco at handsome profit. E had vested since 0.91 and S had vested since 1.30. The selling price was 1.87 and 1.92 respectively for them. I really envy them. I could have joined them since we discuss and trade quite closely. Right from the start, we made contra losses and win some at times, but on the whole, our trading accounts are bleeding most of the time. When they decide to get vested in Cosco, I was still living my "I am a savvy trader" dream. Hence I did not join in. I tried to get vested during the CAO fiasco, but the sentiment was so bad that COSCO was sold down from 1.16 to 0.970 if I remembered correctly. I got scared and did not touch it. Time flies past and after my many trades, E & S are seeing their trading account back to black while mine is still in red. Getting vested in Cosco had turn their fortunes around.

Monday, June 27, 2005

STI fumbled!

Our stock market is finally unable to withstand the selling pressure and ended down 17.01 points today. Another poor 2H GDP guidance followed by a weak industrial output wrecked a rather resilent market. Black gold had finally broken the US$60 barrier during US trading time when I blog this edition. The selling ain't done yet. Watch out.

How did my darlings performed?
  1. Noble: Closed at 1.43. The retracement was expected, but it should not fall below 1.40 in the upcoming sessions.
  2. MFS: As thought it would be, collapsed. Tech stocks are simply too volatile and makes trading them exciting! Today it closed down -0.035 to 0.655. Got this one right! : )
  3. ChinaPetro: Closed down -0.01 at 0.415. Volume is only 83k, very light. Will collect somemore via paper trade. :P
  4. Singpost: After an intra day low of 1.00, it rebounded to close at 1.03. Got this one right! : )
  5. Macquaire Stuck at 1.16 and 1.15......ding ding dong dong ding ding dong...consolidation?
  6. DataCraft down 1 cent to close at 1.110, a further retracement closer to 1.04 will be good to get vested base on risk/reward ratio.
  7. Comfordelgro: As mentioned in the last blog, high oil price will hurt transportation company. This one close down 4 cents.

Sunday, June 26, 2005

US tanked for second consecutive sessions, are we seeing red soon?

As we enter the month of July, Dow and Nasdaq has downed again for the second session this week. More downside next week? But what we really need to know is, how it will affect our market. No reversal signal found on ST index chart but on the Stochastics, we are entering the overbought region. It must however be noted that in a continuous uptrend, the chart can be in the overbought region for a great deal of time. So the best way to make use of this information is to watch for any reversal candlesticks formation. Looking at both STI and Sesdaq chart, I saw lower shadows which is bullish in it's nature. Our market still refuse to bulge under poor GDP expectations or high oil price? Over the year, I have been stupid enough to trade during poor economy expectations. I am just not fast enough to take profit and run. So this time round I shall sit and watch how to do it via paper trade!

Here's a progressive charting of the 4 counters I was following last week.
  1. Singpost: Not only did the black candle not formed after the shooting star, it pushed to a higher high. On the weekly, it's 2 consecutive white candle. This one i must say worth to invest.
  2. Macquaire: it gained 2 cents on a volume of 3 mil versus the big drop previously with 9 mil. I wouldn't classify this as a reversal. Am still going to stand aside and be a "kiasu" Singaporean.
  3. DataCraft: Despite opening lower, it manage to end the session with a gain. Bullish sentiment. A long hammer formed on the weekly chart. Trading rule is that the support will be at the bottom of this hammer, which is 1.04 . With a reverse H&S forming on the daily chart, a hammer on the weekly chart, I would go for the juggler!
  4. Still no clear trading signal from technical point of view, but it must be noted that the current high oil price will have an impact on this company. Watch on.

You want to know what is "Bang Balls"? Just take a look at my picks 2 weeks ago, Semb Marine. I already detected something brewing with my formula, but I choose to trade Macquaire because it is cheaper. What happened? Semb Marine is laughing at me from a height of 2.55! No wonder people say not all cheap things are good... haha

Here's the list for this week's action:

  1. Noble: dragon fly formed on weekly chart. However we need a white candle to confirm the reversal. Support at 1.40. Current price is 1.45. I would expect to see retracement for this fella.
  2. MFS: With nasdaq going southwards, couple that up with a shooting star on the weekly, a short for this fella.
  3. ChinaPetro Tech: Interesting fella with hammer formed on the weekly chart with a spike in volume. The support at 0.400 has been intact for 6 months. A quickie trade! But it is pretty illiquid.

I paid for my losses in Macquaire and Sunpower today. Terrible feeling. So much so, I was thinking to quit again. But if I quit, I will never get my money back from Mr Market again. So here i am again, ever optimistic, studying potential opportunities and paper trade.

I remembered I was advised to start paper trade before I actually place my first order. Despite reading from books and having so many seniors advising me on that, I placed my first order within 2 weeks. Greed. Staring at my accumulated losses, I could have travelled to Europe next year to catch World Cup 2006. So if you are a rookie starting out like me, please do paper trade before you become the next regretful soul. The only reason that i'm still in this game is my good money discipline. I don't allow myself to chalk up huge losses months after months. I would stop when I hit my monthly trading limit I imposed on myself.

Saturday, June 25, 2005

Fundamental Analysis


The above contains the essence of Fundamental Analysis that I had researched. Decipher share with you! : )

Thursday, June 23, 2005

STI Rocked!

STI touched the sky even with poor economic data and higher oil price. I am puzzled! Are we well poised for a big retracement? But recent drops in STI has been without volume and instead, the gains has better volume. Market is really more unpredictable than women! haha

Here's tonight's homework. (Darn...if only i am this hardworking during my school days! ha! It's been 1 hour everynight for the past year already!)

  1. Singpost has a shooting star! Watch out! This shooting star has a bigger volume, however need a bear candle tomorrow to confirm.
  2. Heng ah! I cut my Macquaire Reits early at 1.18. The closing today is a whopping 1.14! Beware man, it's a big black candle!
  3. DataCraft has a reverse Head & Shoulder forming. This one, worth to keep in watchlist!
  4. Comfortdelgro on the weekly chart seems like bullish ascending triangle forming. Current closing today is on the support line. A doji or a bullish candle tomorrow will be good!

How about yesterday's results? It's a mixed results. But it's enough to stop me from punting in future! Given such a good day in SGX, the results sucks! I better stop dreaming and get my feet on the ground!

Stats Chippac: 1.19 ; target 1.22 <== Spot on!

Starhub: 1.700 ; 1.72 <== closed at 1.70

Sarin: 0.400 ; 0.410 <== closed at 0.400

Pearl Energy: 1.65 ; target 1.70 <== closed at 1.60 WRONG!

Labroy Marine: 0.770 ; target 0.780 <== closed at 0.755 WRONG!

Interra: 0.335 ; target 0.370 <== closed at 0.325 WRONG!

Trading is such an emotional roller coaster. Just 2 weeks ago, I was gloating over how my formula worked wonders for me. Now, I'm licking my wounds. Tomorrow has to cut my Sunpower and suffer yet another blow to my ego and pocket. Unless of course miracle happen and push Sunpower all the way up, which is wishful thinking on my part. haha!

You don't hope in a stock market. It will kill you! You have to cut when you have to cut. Be a man, be responsible for your own judgement!

Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Spot on!

Refering to my posting on the first day of the week, I am spot on in my analysis. Indeed shares start to turn up today. Somemore for tomorrow? As good as anybody's guess. But as a rule of thumb, never predict what will happen, just follow the market trend.

Unifiber indeed rocked all the way to 0.395 today. Again I was spot on. But I did not contra. My fear overcame me. But it is uncanny enough why my paper trading always better my cash trading. Heaven playing a joke on me? Maybe I should just give up trading completely?

Today's action was helped by a further decline in oil price to US$58. Anymore decline and we will see another positive session tomorrow.

Here's what I gathered from my system for tomorrow's action.

Stats Chippac: 1.19 ; target 1.22
Starhub: 1.700 ; 1.72
Sarin: 0.400 ; 0.410
Pearl Energy: 1.65 ; target 1.70
Labroy Marine: 0.770 ; target 0.780
Interra: 0.335 ; target 0.370

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

Define Frustration?

TPV close at 1.13 today +0.04!!! Damn! I was too emotionally fearful to contra and see this golden chance of $300 bucks slipped away. However this gain is only 526k in volume as compared to 1.2 mil of yesterday's drop. I say, more retracement is expected.

As for the 3 heavy volume counters yesterday, Singpost(-0.005), Raffles Edu(-0.02) & people's food(-0.035). All lost! Ok I shall quit this stupid daily chart volume breakout thingy.

Another starlet discovered today, Unifiber. Looking at the chart, bullish engulfing with heavier volume. I say this one has a chance to test 0.375 and then 0.390 followed by 0.405. Contra!

Oil price retreated abit but still at US$59. Analysts has attributed the recent rise to hedgefund instead of demand over supply.

Monday, June 20, 2005

Kiang jiu ho, mai kei kiang! *hokkien

After tweaking my formula last week, it's a disasterous opening session to the week. Although i got it correct that the opening session will be negative, never thought my picks perform just as worse. Infact only TPV should be in my list. The other picks are manipulated. I could only find TPV using my formula hence i tweaked my formula and the rest of the jokes came out. This shows that, "Kiang jiu ho, mai kei kiang! *hokkien" Anyway, with TPV hovering at -0.04 beginning of the week, I shall wait for a chance to contra it. The rest is simply rubbish! Unless Friday prove otherwise. By the way, crude oil is trading at US$59 level...insane!

TPV: support at 1.07.

Singpost, Raffles Edu & People's food finish today with superb volume. Lesson to be learnt here. Let's see how it turns out tomorrow.

Saturday, June 18, 2005

Pick for next week!

With Oil price raging notoriously high at $US58, trade with care! I suspect a down on the first few sessions of the week before a pickup from mid week on.
Here's the list for this coming week's action: Counters and their closing on 17/6/05

TPV: 1.13 ; target price = 1.16
LeongHin: 0.34 ; target price = 0.360
Beyonics: 0.335 ; target price = 0.355
Ace Achieve: 0.16 ; target price = 0.175

"Have a plan? Trade with a plan!" This will ensure decision not clouded by daily close. I have seen counters retrace more than 50% of previous session and then spring back to life at the last session. My plan is simple, hit the target and run, be it on a mon, tues, wed, thurs or fri. I have an Objective to keep in mind, I am trading and not investing.

Thursday, June 16, 2005

Eyes on Jurong Tech

Fine tuning my system, i found out that buying on Friday closing can capitalise on profits better. Hence I searched high and low for the gems next week and found nothing much. Not surprising as oil prices are screaming at $US55 per barrel. Most of the day this week has been flat and mixed. It's the best time to test and fine tune my system. A wiseman once told me, everyone can be a winner in a bullish market, only the experts profits in a bear market.

Having said so much, here's my trading strategy for tomorrow, buy Jurong Tech at closing tomorrow and sell +0.03 next week.

I'm still queuing to sell sunpower and Macquaire. While i'm still confident that Sunpower can turn in profit. But I can't say the same for Macquaire...because I knn see wrongly!!! hahaha! It shouldn't even be in my GEM list this week. Damn!

Monday, June 13, 2005

Formula worked again!

Yes! Formula yielded profit again! If you were to buy at previous closing price and then sell 2 cents later, you would have won 4/6 trades! The other 2, 1 is neutral, the other close up 1 cent.
Let's see how this week close on Friday. I am holding Macquire and Sunpower. Both bought at previous close. Waiting to sell tomorrow. : )


closing on 13th June 2005 Posted by Hello

6 Gems for this coming week Unveils

Alright! After much delibrations, here's the list of counters expected to have great showing this week. One of the many ways is to buy at previous closing price and then sell at 2 bids higher than that. This is what I call, riding on the bull. Or swimming with the big fishes.

*counters with previous closing price.
Sunpower : 0.275
SPH : 4.32
Semb Marine: 2.23
MFS : 0.69
Macquire : 1.22
ChinaSun : 0.435

Time will again prove whether my formula will work. But judging from results in April and May, POSITIVE! : )

Sunday, June 12, 2005

75% accuracy for last week's trading!


75% Correct this week! Posted by Hello

Yippie! the formula worked damn well for last week's pick! I nibbled some during midweek for Noble and Fu yu. Sold both on Friday to collect profits! Yes! Profit for the first time since many months! The only pimples on a beautiful face (Very Singapore English. ha!) would be Suntec Reits and SMRT. This formula is still raw. I'm sure with it's high hit rate with somemore fine tuning, the reward should be big time!

Monday, June 06, 2005

Decipher

8 Gems for this week.

I have decided to post weekly instead of being mis lead by daily volatile. Trading on longer time frame is less volatile. Here's my list of Gems for this week. 8 Gems with their closing price on 3/6/05. Let's see closing on 10/6/05. It will disclose the winning probablity of this trading formula and strategy.

UniFibre : 0.330
SunTec : 1.30
SMRT : 1.16
Noble : 1.50
FuYu : 0.575
FibreChem : 0.580
DataCraft : 1.13
Cosco : 1.83